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Mestre vs Pesaro Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 17 Apr 2027
Tip-off: 18:30
Scheduled
Position#14
Record2-4
FormLLLWL
Points / game73.5
Allowed / game78.5
vs
Position#3
Record5-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game76.5
ItalySerie A2Round 37· Palasport Taliercio
Other2026-27
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mestre win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pesaro win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Mestre
4.3out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Below their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 75.6
72.4▼ 3.2
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 80.5
82.8▲ 2.3
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 53%
52%▼ 1%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 10.6
10.6▼ 0.0
🔥 Form · Pesaro
5.8out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Above their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 83.9
80.6▼ 3.3
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 82.5
75.6▼ 6.9
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 65%
70%▲ 5%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 14.8
13.2▼ 1.6
MestreItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Avellino Basket
#6
L
83-85
83
85
-2
H08/04
Serie A2
Verona
#2
L
68-87
68
87
-19
A12/04
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#7
L
82-90
82
90
-8
H18/04
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#12
L
82-83
82
83
-1
A26/04
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#4
W
79-57
79
57
+22
A27/09
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
49-88
49
88
-39
H03/10
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
L
74-87
74
87
-13
H10/10
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
L
76-91
76
91
-15
A18/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#15
W
93-71
93
71
+22
H21/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#13
L
70-77
70
77
-7
A25/10
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-26
24-19
20-24
17-16
11-21
21-29
16-20
20-17
26-17
13-28
19-21
24-24
24-21
26-29
20-16
12-17
23-15
19-26
21-11
16-5
9-19
11-22
12-26
17-21
27-25
21-25
15-19
11-18
16-20
23-26
17-29
20-16
24-12
21-26
26-8
22-25
17-26
18-15
22-16
13-20
157.2Avg total
75.6Scored
81.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)73.578.5152.0-5.033%
Season at home (3)72.082.0154.0-10.033%
Season away (3)75.075.0150.0+0.033%
Last 10 (10)75.681.6157.2-6.020%
Last 5 (5)72.482.8155.2-10.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)74.781.9156.6-7.229%
vs Similar (12)80.280.0160.2+0.242%
vs Weaker (1)74.078.0152.0-4.00%
This opponent (Pesaro) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PesaroItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rimini
#8
W
94-79
94
79
+15
H11/05
Serie A2
Rimini
#8
L
75-93
75
93
-18
A14/05
Serie A2
Rimini
#8
W
96-94
96
94
+2
A16/05
Serie A2
Rimini
#8
L
78-91
78
91
-13
H19/05
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
96-81
96
81
+15
A27/09
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#20
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H04/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#13
W
83-77
83
77
+6
H11/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#15
W
86-76
86
76
+10
A18/10
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
76-68
76
68
+8
H21/10
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#4
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H25/10
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-16
35-27
15-25
22-11
15-26
28-26
18-27
14-14
21-26
33-19
17-31
25-18
18-20
11-27
22-21
27-23
31-14
25-25
20-19
20-23
24-23
21-18
15-26
27-17
23-24
23-15
16-21
21-17
13-15
27-31
22-17
24-13
22-21
20-18
13-15
21-14
15-20
21-20
18-19
17-14
165.8Avg total
84.2Scored
81.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)83.276.5159.7+6.783%
Season at home (4)79.275.5154.8+3.875%
Season away (2)91.078.5169.5+12.5100%
Last 10 (10)84.281.6165.8+2.670%
Last 5 (5)80.675.6156.2+5.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (16)83.486.6170.0-3.150%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)83.776.5160.2+7.293%
This opponent (Mestre) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -4.8-4.8Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -4.5-4.5Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: +5.4+5.4
MestrePesaro
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MestreLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Avellino Basket
#6
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H08/04
Serie A2
Verona
#2
L
32-50
32
50
-18
A12/04
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#7
L
39-45
39
45
-6
H18/04
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#12
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A26/04
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#4
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A27/09
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
20-41
20
41
-21
H03/10
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
L
48-50
48
50
-2
H10/10
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A18/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#15
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H21/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#13
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A25/10
Serie A2
84.3Avg total
39.6Scored
44.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.241.981.1-2.740%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.941.682.5-0.753%-
Last 30 away (15)37.542.279.7-4.727%-
Last 10 (10)39.644.784.3-5.130%-
Last 5 (5)37.443.280.6-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)37.442.880.1-5.429%-
vs Similar (12)41.140.681.7+0.550%-
vs Weaker (1)49.043.092.0+6.0100%-
This opponent (Pesaro) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PesaroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rimini
#8
W
57-43
57
43
+14
H11/05
Serie A2
Rimini
#8
L
43-52
43
52
-9
A14/05
Serie A2
Rimini
#8
W
54-45
54
45
+9
A16/05
Serie A2
Rimini
#8
L
29-47
29
47
-18
H19/05
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
56-39
56
39
+17
A27/09
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#20
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H04/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#13
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H11/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#15
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A18/10
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H21/10
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#4
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H25/10
Serie A2
87.9Avg total
44.8Scored
43.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.140.683.7+2.560%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.839.282.0+3.669%-
Last 30 away (14)43.442.185.6+1.350%-
Last 10 (10)44.843.187.9+1.760%-
Last 5 (5)41.841.082.8+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (16)42.141.883.9+0.444%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)44.239.283.4+5.079%-
This opponent (Mestre) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mestretheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mestre: 73.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.3 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.315.8
44.8%
51.5%31.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.69.2
31.1%
34.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws19.714.6
74.1%
70.9%14.6
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pesarotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pesaro: 77.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.3 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.718.1
52.2%
51.5%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.58.7
42.4%
34.5%26.1
🏀 Free throws19.515.4
79.0%
70.9%15.4
They take 55.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Apr 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mestre
LWLLLWLLLL
Pesaro
LWWWWWLWLW
#14
League position
#3
-7.9
Net rating
+1.9
90.1
Offensive rating
106.7
98.0
Defensive rating
104.8
45.6%
Effective FG%
56.4%
51.6%
Opp. effective FG%
53.4%
9.7%
Turnover %
10.9%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.35
31.1%
3-point %
42.4%
43.6%
Assist %
52.6%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence90.1 · 106.7Defence98.0 · 104.8Shooting45.6% · 56.4%3-point %31.1% · 42.4%Ball care9.7% · 10.9%Free throws0.30 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)20% · 70%
■ Mestre   ■ Pesaro
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Mestre wins
2
Pesaro wins
DateGameScore
21/03/26Mestre v Pesaro75-93
19/10/25Pesaro v Mestre90-84
Mestrelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/26ACaserta70-77
21/10/26HRuvo Di Puglia93-71
18/10/26ARimini76-91
10/10/26HSassari74-87
03/10/26HLibertas Livorno49-88
27/09/26ABasket Torino79-57
26/04/26AJuVi Cremona82-83
18/04/26HLibertas Livorno82-90
12/04/26AVerona68-87
08/04/26HAvellino Basket83-85
Pesarolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/26HBasket Torino71-73
21/10/26HCividale76-68
18/10/26ARuvo Di Puglia86-76
11/10/26HCaserta83-77
04/10/26HJuVi Cremona87-84
27/09/26ACento96-81
19/05/26HRimini78-91
16/05/26ARimini96-94
14/05/26ARimini75-93
11/05/26HRimini94-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mestre
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL33%
HomeLLW33%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %33%33%33%
Points / game73.572.075.0
Allowed / game78.582.075.0
Point differential-5.0-10.0+0.0
Avg total152.0154.0150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pesaro
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL83%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %83%75%100%
Points / game83.279.291.0
Allowed / game76.575.578.5
Point differential+6.7+3.8+12.5
Avg total159.7154.8169.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Libertas Livorno660100%81.767.0+14.7
2 Avellino Basket65183%81.073.5+7.5
3 Pesaro65183%83.276.5+6.7
4 Basket Torino54180%75.073.4+1.6
5 Rimini75271%82.671.0+11.6
6 Brindisi64267%78.873.8+5.0
7 Fortitudo Bologna64267%81.377.3+4.0
8 Sebastiani Rieti64267%75.376.5-1.2
9 Pistoia63350%78.269.8+8.3
10 Forli63350%83.379.5+3.8
11 Sassari63350%72.876.0-3.2
12 Cividale73443%70.774.4-3.7
13 Caserta52340%80.881.2-0.4
14 Mestre62433%73.578.5-5.0
15 Ruvo Di Puglia62433%79.284.3-5.2
16 Vigevano62433%77.285.3-8.2
17 Cento72529%73.683.6-10.0
18 Montecatini61517%72.084.2-12.2
19 Urania Milano71614%75.781.7-6.0
20 JuVi Cremona6060%74.881.5-6.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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