PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Miami (FL) hosts Rider on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Miami (FL) the clear favourite, assigning a 100% chance of victory largely because the Hurricanes have a 2-1 record, average 79.7 points scored and 61.7 allowed, and a 142nd league position that places them above Rider's 1-3 record, 64.5 points scored and 72.2 allowed from 326th in the standings. Miami (FL) has gone 2-0 at home, scoring 86.0 points and allowing 54.0, while Rider has gone 0-2 on the road, scoring 60.0 and conceding 85.0. Miami's last five games include two home wins, 89-51 over North Florida and 83-57 over Wagner, and a 67-77 loss away to Florida. Rider's last five feature a single home win, 83-53 over William Paterson, and three defeats, including 63-75 to Binghamton and 55-66 to New Hampshire. The Pythia projection sets a 93-59 final score, a total of 152.1 points, and a 100% probability that Miami (FL) will cover the home line. The game ends with Miami (FL) comfortably ahead, as the model predicts a decisive win.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 79.7 | 61.7 | 141.3 | +18.0 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 86.0 | 54.0 | 140.0 | +32.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 67.0 | 77.0 | 144.0 | -10.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.0 | 70.2 | 147.2 | +6.8 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.6 | 66.0 | 143.6 | +11.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (9) | 73.2 | 78.0 | 151.2 | -4.8 | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (21) | 82.9 | 69.2 | 152.1 | +13.6 | 90% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 64.5 | 72.2 | 136.8 | -7.8 | 25% |
| Season at home (2) | 69.0 | 59.5 | 128.5 | +9.5 | 50% |
| Season away (2) | 60.0 | 85.0 | 145.0 | -25.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 64.0 | 73.0 | 137.0 | -9.0 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 63.8 | 73.0 | 136.8 | -9.2 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (27) | 63.7 | 77.7 | 141.4 | -14.0 | 11% |
| vs Similar (2) | 51.5 | 59.5 | 111.0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.0 | 35.7 | 73.7 | +2.3 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 38.9 | 35.2 | 74.1 | +3.8 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 36.7 | 36.4 | 73.1 | +0.3 | 62% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.2 | 32.8 | 68.0 | +2.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.2 | 31.2 | 67.4 | +5.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (9) | 35.9 | 40.2 | 76.1 | -4.3 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (21) | 38.9 | 33.8 | 72.6 | +5.1 | 62% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 30.0 | 36.9 | 66.9 | -6.9 | 17% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 30.7 | 32.6 | 63.4 | -1.9 | 29% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 29.4 | 40.6 | 70.0 | -11.2 | 6% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.3 | 36.1 | 66.4 | -5.8 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.0 | 35.2 | 68.2 | -2.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (27) | 29.7 | 38.3 | 67.9 | -8.6 | 11% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 26.5 | 25.0 | 51.5 | +1.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | North Florida | 89-51 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Wagner | 83-57 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Florida | 67-77 |
| 22/03/26 | A | Purdue | 69-79 |
| 21/03/26 | H | Missouri | 80-66 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Virginia | 62-84 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Louisville | 78-73 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Louisville | 89-92 |
| 05/03/26 | A | SMU Mustangs | 77-69 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Boston College | 76-54 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | William Paterson Pioneers | 83-53 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Binghamton | 63-75 |
| 06/11/26 | H | New Hampshire Wildcats | 55-66 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Pittsburgh | 57-95 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Siena | 61-76 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Iona | 58-80 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Niagara | 67-62 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Canisius | 66-72 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Sacred Heart | 75-86 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Mount St. Mary's | 55-65 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 79.7 | 86.0 | 67.0 |
| Allowed / game | 61.7 | 54.0 | 77.0 |
| Point differential | +18.0 | +32.0 | -10.0 |
| Avg total | 141.3 | 140.0 | 144.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLW | 25% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 64.5 | 69.0 | 60.0 |
| Allowed / game | 72.2 | 59.5 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | -7.8 | +9.5 | -25.0 |
| Avg total | 136.8 | 128.5 | 145.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  Virginia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 3 |  SMU Mustangs | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.7 | 68.3 | +24.3 |
| 4 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.3 | 69.7 | +22.7 |
| 7 |  NC State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 64.7 | +21.0 |
| 9 |  North Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 68.3 | +20.0 |
| 10 |  Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 69.7 | +15.3 |
| 11 |  Stanford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 67.0 | +15.0 |
| 12 |  Clemson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 74.0 | +12.3 |
| 13 |  California | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.5 | 75.2 | +12.2 |
| 14 |  Duke | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 60.3 | +29.7 |
| 15 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 16 | Miami (FL) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 79.7 | 61.7 | +18.0 |
| 17 |  Wake Forest | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.0 | 66.7 | +5.3 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 87.0 | -9.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sacred Heart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 88.0 | 64.7 | +23.3 |
| 2 |  Siena | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 79.0 | +6.3 |
| 3 |  Merrimack Warriors | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 65.7 | 60.0 | +5.7 |
| 4 |  Quinnipiac | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 68.0 | 76.0 | -8.0 |
| 5 |  Iona | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 66.2 | 71.5 | -5.2 |
| 6 |  Mount St. Mary's | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 60.0 | 77.0 | -17.0 |
| 7 |  Marist | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.3 | 70.7 | -0.3 |
| 8 |  Canisius | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.3 | 81.7 | -7.3 |
| 9 |  Manhattan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 73.0 | -8.7 |
| 10 |  Fairfield | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 75.7 | -16.7 |
| 11 | Rider | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.5 | 72.2 | -7.8 |
| 12 |  St. Peters | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 47.5 | 63.8 | -16.2 |
| 13 |  Niagara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 56.5 | 82.0 | -25.5 |
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