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Miami (Ohio) vs Buffalo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 105-102 (OT)
46-48 42-40 17-14
Position#5
Record18-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game93.3
Allowed / game71.7
vs
Position#180
Record13-4
FormWWWLL
Points / game79.9
Allowed / game72.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Miami (Ohio) v Buffalo
19 Jan 2027
MIAM v BUFF
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
MIAM105
BUFF102
04 Jan 2025
MIAM93
BUFF79
22 Feb 2022
MIAM84
BUFF86
15 Dec 2020
MIAM62
BUFF90
10 Jan 2020
MIAM78
BUFF83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami (Ohio) winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Buffalo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami (Ohio)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UNC Asheville
#237
W
90-87 OT
90
87
+3
A10/12
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#313
W
79-69
79
69
+10
A13/12
NCAA
Wright State
#94
W
83-76
83
76
+7
A17/12
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
86-77
86
77
+9
A20/12
NCAA
Milligan
#639
W
135-81
135
81
+54
H22/12
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
93-83
93
83
+10
A31/12
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
76-73
76
73
+3
H03/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
87-76
87
76
+11
H07/01
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
87-73
87
73
+14
A09/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
100-61
100
61
+39
H14/01
NCAA
1H
2H
41-35
43-49
35-25
44-44
46-34
37-42
40-36
46-41
68-35
67-46
54-28
39-55
33-36
43-37
39-35
48-41
56-36
31-37
49-35
51-26
167.2Avg total
91.6Scored
75.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)93.371.7164.9+21.6100%
Season at home (11)98.669.5168.1+29.2100%
Season away (7)84.975.1160.0+9.7100%
Last 10 (10)91.675.6167.2+16.0100%
Last 5 (5)88.673.2161.8+15.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)77.473.4150.8+4.080%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)89.171.8160.9+17.488%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canisius
#327
W
71-53
71
53
+18
A29/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
L
69-77
69
77
-8
H06/12
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
W
83-79
83
79
+4
A09/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
L
70-73
70
73
-3
A14/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
88-71
88
71
+17
A20/12
NCAA
Penn St-Behrend
#465
W
92-63
92
63
+29
H22/12
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
81-67
81
67
+14
A31/12
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
85-72
85
72
+13
H03/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
80-91
80
91
-11
A10/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
81-87
81
87
-6
H13/01
NCAA
1H
2H
34-29
37-24
32-38
37-39
39-43
44-36
47-28
23-45
41-28
47-43
51-37
41-26
43-29
38-38
41-25
44-47
47-44
33-47
30-44
51-43
153.3Avg total
80.0Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)79.972.7152.6+7.276%
Season at home (9)83.075.3158.3+7.778%
Season away (8)76.569.8146.2+6.875%
Last 10 (10)80.073.3153.3+6.760%
Last 5 (5)83.876.0159.8+7.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)72.681.0153.6-8.423%
vs Similar (9)79.676.9156.4+2.767%
vs Weaker (7)77.367.0144.3+10.386%
This opponent (Miami (Ohio)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +12.6+12.61st half: +6.0+6.02nd half2nd half: +3.1+3.12nd half: +0.7+0.7
-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +12.6+12.61st half: +6.0+6.02nd half2nd half: +3.1+3.12nd half: +0.7+0.7
Miami (Ohio)Buffalo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Miami (Ohio)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UNC Asheville
#237
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A10/12
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#313
W
35-25
35
25
+10
A13/12
NCAA
Wright State
#94
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A17/12
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
40-36
40
36
+4
A20/12
NCAA
Milligan
#639
W
68-35
68
35
+33
H22/12
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
54-28
54
28
+26
A31/12
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H03/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H07/01
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
56-36
56
36
+20
A09/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
49-35
49
35
+14
H14/01
NCAA
79.6Avg total
46.1Scored
33.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.532.575.0+10.077%-
Last 30 at home (18)43.432.375.8+11.172%-
Last 30 away (12)41.132.873.9+8.283%-
Last 10 (10)46.133.579.6+12.690%-
Last 5 (5)46.234.080.2+12.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)37.434.672.0+2.860%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)43.532.175.6+11.480%-
This opponent (Buffalo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canisius
#327
W
34-29
34
29
+5
A29/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
L
32-38
32
38
-6
H06/12
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A09/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
47-28
47
28
+19
A14/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
41-28
41
28
+13
A20/12
NCAA
Penn St-Behrend
#465
W
51-37
51
37
+14
H22/12
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A31/12
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H03/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
47-44
47
44
+3
A10/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H13/01
NCAA
75.0Avg total
40.5Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.435.672.0+0.847%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.636.971.4-2.325%-
Last 30 away (14)38.534.172.6+4.471%-
Last 10 (10)40.534.575.0+6.070%-
Last 5 (5)42.435.878.2+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)32.640.473.0-7.815%-
vs Similar (9)36.233.269.4+3.056%-
vs Weaker (7)41.629.671.1+12.086%-
This opponent (Miami (Ohio)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Miami (Ohio) wins
5
Buffalo wins
Miami (Ohio)last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/01/26HCentral Michigan100-61
09/01/26AToledo87-73
07/01/26HWestern Michigan87-76
03/01/26HAkron76-73
31/12/25ABowling Green93-83
22/12/25HMilligan135-81
20/12/25ABall State86-77
17/12/25AWright State83-76
13/12/25AEastern Kentucky79-69
10/12/25AUNC Asheville90-87 OT
Buffalolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/26HKent State81-87
10/01/26AOhio80-91
03/01/26HBall State85-72
31/12/25ANorthern Illinois81-67
22/12/25HPenn St-Behrend92-63
20/12/25AWestern Michigan88-71
14/12/25AEast Carolina70-73
09/12/25AUMBC Retrievers83-79
06/12/25HSt. Bonaventure69-77
29/11/25ACanisius71-53

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami (Ohio)
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18117
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game93.398.684.9
Allowed / game71.769.575.1
Point differential+21.6+29.2+9.7
Avg total164.9168.1160.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+72%82%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %6%0%14%
Buffalo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL76%
HomeWLWWL78%
AwayWLWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1798
Win %76%78%75%
Points / game79.983.076.5
Allowed / game72.775.369.8
Point differential+7.2+7.7+6.8
Avg total152.6158.3146.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+41%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)18180100%93.371.7+21.6
2 Akron1713476%93.075.8+17.2
3 Buffalo1713476%79.972.7+7.2
4 Kent State1813572%89.882.3+7.5
5 Bowling Green1711665%88.070.8+17.2
6 UMass1811761%80.874.4+6.4
7 Toledo1810856%82.878.3+4.5
8 Ohio1910953%78.177.2+0.9
9 Eastern Michigan189950%71.570.8+0.7
10 Western Michigan1771041%76.478.6-2.2
11 Northern Illinois1651131%74.178.1-4.0
12 Ball State1851328%68.470.8-2.4
13 Central Michigan1851328%72.179.9-7.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Miami (Ohio)464217105
Buffalo484014102
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