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Penn State vs Michigan State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 13 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 72-76
39-36 33-40
Position#298
Record8-2
FormLWWWL
Points / game82.0
Allowed / game74.3
vs
Position#29
Record8-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game76.6
Allowed / game61.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Penn State v Michigan State
13 Dec 2025
PENN72
MICH76
14 Feb 2024
PENN72
MICH80
07 Dec 2022
PENN58
MICH67
15 Feb 2022
PENN62
MICH58
03 Mar 2020
PENN71
MICH79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penn State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Michigan State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Penn StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairfield
#105
W
76-68
76
68
+8
H04/11
NCAA
New Haven Chargers
#250
W
87-43
87
43
+44
A08/11
NCAA
Navy
#24
W
80-71
80
71
+9
H11/11
NCAA
La Salle
#346
W
83-69
83
69
+14
H15/11
NCAA
Harvard
#133
W
84-80
84
80
+4
H19/11
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
65-77
65
77
-12
H22/11
NCAA
Boston University
#211
W
96-87
96
87
+9
H26/11
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
90-59
90
59
+31
H29/11
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
87-76
87
76
+11
H02/12
NCAA
Indiana
#145
L
72-113
72
113
-41
A10/12
NCAA
1H
2H
37-37
39-31
41-21
46-22
38-32
42-39
42-29
41-40
35-38
49-42
31-32
34-45
51-35
45-52
47-20
43-39
46-39
41-37
26-58
46-55
156.3Avg total
82.0Scored
74.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)82.074.3156.3+7.780%
Season at home (8)82.673.4156.0+9.288%
Season away (2)79.578.0157.5+1.550%
Last 10 (10)82.074.3156.3+7.780%
Last 5 (5)82.082.4164.4-0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)80.575.6156.2+4.964%
vs Similar (13)74.277.4151.5-3.238%
vs Weaker (6)72.772.3145.0+0.350%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Auburn
#12
L
64-70
64
70
-6
A30/03
NCAA
Colgate
#168
W
80-69
80
69
+11
H04/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H09/11
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
79-60
79
60
+19
H13/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
83-66
83
66
+17
A18/11
NCAA
Detroit
#184
W
84-56
84
56
+28
H21/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
89-56
89
56
+33
A25/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H27/11
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
71-52
71
52
+19
H03/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
60-66
60
66
-6
H06/12
NCAA
1H
2H
24-33
40-37
37-34
43-35
36-39
33-27
46-23
33-37
44-27
39-39
41-25
43-31
47-24
42-32
33-28
41-30
35-21
36-31
34-31
26-35
137.2Avg total
75.3Scored
61.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)76.661.0137.6+15.689%
Season at home (7)73.961.0134.9+12.986%
Season away (2)86.061.0147.0+25.0100%
Last 10 (10)75.361.9137.2+13.480%
Last 5 (5)75.657.6133.2+18.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)60.066.0126.0-6.00%
vs Similar (13)71.864.4136.2+7.577%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)79.267.1146.4+12.188%
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +5.3+5.31st half: +9.2+9.22nd half2nd half: +2.4+2.42nd half: +4.2+4.2
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +5.3+5.31st half: +9.2+9.22nd half2nd half: +2.4+2.42nd half: +4.2+4.2
Penn StateMichigan State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Penn StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairfield
#105
D
37-37
37
37
+0
H04/11
NCAA
New Haven Chargers
#250
W
41-21
41
21
+20
A08/11
NCAA
Navy
#24
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H11/11
NCAA
La Salle
#346
W
42-29
42
29
+13
H15/11
NCAA
Harvard
#133
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H19/11
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
31-32
31
32
-1
H22/11
NCAA
Boston University
#211
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H26/11
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
47-20
47
20
+27
H29/11
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H02/12
NCAA
Indiana
#145
L
26-58
26
58
-32
A10/12
NCAA
73.5Avg total
39.4Scored
34.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.935.071.0+0.953%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.832.670.4+5.267%-
Last 30 away (12)33.238.771.8-5.533%-
Last 10 (10)39.434.173.5+5.360%-
Last 5 (5)40.236.877.0+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)38.535.373.8+3.355%-
vs Similar (13)35.536.672.1-1.238%-
vs Weaker (6)32.231.263.3+1.083%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Auburn
#12
L
24-33
24
33
-9
A30/03
NCAA
Colgate
#168
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H04/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H09/11
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
46-23
46
23
+23
H13/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
44-27
44
27
+17
A18/11
NCAA
Detroit
#184
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H21/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
47-24
47
24
+23
A25/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H27/11
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
35-21
35
21
+14
H03/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H06/12
NCAA
66.2Avg total
37.7Scored
28.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.331.767.0+3.750%-
Last 30 at home (20)36.431.267.7+5.160%-
Last 30 away (10)33.232.565.7+0.730%-
Last 10 (10)37.728.566.2+9.280%-
Last 5 (5)38.025.863.8+12.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)34.031.065.0+3.0100%-
vs Similar (13)31.532.163.6-0.531%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)38.531.469.9+7.162%-
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Penn State wins
7
Michigan State wins
Penn Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/12/25AIndiana72-113
02/12/25HCampbell87-76
29/11/25HSacred Heart90-59
26/11/25HBoston University96-87
22/11/25HProvidence65-77
19/11/25HHarvard84-80
15/11/25HLa Salle83-69
11/11/25HNavy80-71
08/11/25ANew Haven Chargers87-43
04/11/25HFairfield76-68
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/12/25HDuke60-66
03/12/25HIowa71-52
27/11/25HNorth Carolina74-58
25/11/25AEast Carolina89-56
21/11/25HDetroit84-56
18/11/25AKentucky83-66
13/11/25HSan Jose State79-60
09/11/25HArkansas69-66
04/11/25HColgate80-69
30/03/25AAuburn64-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penn State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL80%
HomeWLWWW88%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1082
Win %80%88%50%
Points / game82.082.679.5
Allowed / game74.373.478.0
Point differential+7.7+9.2+1.5
Avg total156.3156.0157.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%38%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Michigan State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL89%
HomeWWWWL86%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games972
Win %89%86%100%
Points / game76.673.986.0
Allowed / game61.061.061.0
Point differential+15.6+12.9+25.0
Avg total137.6134.9147.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+78%71%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan990100%94.066.0+28.0
2 Nebraska10100100%83.967.1+16.8
3 Purdue109190%85.267.9+17.3
4 USC109190%89.578.5+11.0
5 Michigan State98189%76.661.0+15.6
6 Indiana108280%88.266.9+21.3
7 Illinois108280%88.670.4+18.2
8 Iowa108280%78.162.9+15.2
9 Penn State108280%82.074.3+7.7
10 Ohio State97278%87.471.2+16.2
11 UCLA97278%77.265.0+12.2
12 Wisconsin107370%85.175.4+9.7
13 Washington96367%82.473.9+8.6
14 Maryland106460%77.178.5-1.4
15 Northwestern95456%81.173.1+8.0
16 Minnesota105550%71.869.6+2.2
17 Rutgers105550%69.972.3-2.4
18 Oregon94544%72.975.4-2.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Penn State393372
Michigan State364076
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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