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Mongolia vs Japan Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 23 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 05:00
Final 79-89
22-23 22-23 18-21 17-22
Position#15
Record6-6
FormLLLLW
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game78.3
vs
Japan 🏆
Position#6
Record4-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game77.4
Allowed / game76.4
EuropeAsia Cup· UG Arena
Other2023
Meetings · Mongolia v Japan
23 Feb 2025
MONG79
JAPA89
28 Sep 2014
MONG70
JAPA96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mongolia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Japan winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MongoliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMongolia
Date
Competition
Singapore
#28
W
73-49
73
49
+24
no box
H25/02
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
L
81-82
81
82
-1
no box
A26/02
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
50-89
50
89
-39
no box
A26/09
Asian Games
Hong Kong
#12
L
64-69
64
69
-5
no box
H28/09
Asian Games
Chinese Taipei
#6
L
75-78
75
78
-3
no box
A30/09
Asian Games
China
#2
L
49-80
49
80
-31
no box
A22/02
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
L
63-74
63
74
-11
37avg 50
H25/02
Asia Cup
Japan
#6
L
75-93
75
93
-18
66avg 50
A21/11
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
52-90
52
90
-38
32avg 50
H24/11
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
74-63
74
63
+11
67avg 50
A20/02
Asia Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-8
22-10
10-16
12-15
26-15
17-24
22-26
16-17
19-20
9-24
12-21
10-24
20-17
10-20
18-17
16-15
19-22
25-21
20-19
11-16
12-20
17-19
7-20
13-21
13-21
19-18
16-19
15-16
22-22
14-25
15-20
24-26
14-18
15-25
14-28
9-19
22-19
17-12
20-12
15-20
142.3Avg total
65.6Scored
76.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)76.878.3155.1-1.650%
Season at home (6)74.375.2149.5-0.867%
Season away (6)79.281.5160.7-2.333%
Last 10 (10)65.676.7142.3-11.120%
Last 5 (5)62.680.0142.6-17.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)68.392.0160.3-23.76%
vs Similar (3)95.792.7188.3+3.067%
vs Weaker (11)79.768.4148.1+11.464%
This opponent (Japan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
JapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJapan
Date
Competition
Indonesia
#15
W
70-57
70
57
+13
no box
A28/09
Asian Games
South Korea
#5
W
83-77
83
77
+6
no box
H30/09
Asian Games
Chinese Taipei
#6
L
66-85
66
85
-19
no box
H03/10
Asian Games
Saudi Arabia
#7
L
74-79
74
79
-5
no box
A04/10
Asian Games
South Korea
#5
L
55-74
55
74
-19
no box
A06/10
Asian Games
Guam
#14
W
77-56
77
56
+21
no box
H22/02
Asia Cup
China
#2
W
76-73
76
73
+3
66avg 70
H25/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
93-75
93
75
+18
98avg 70
H21/11
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
83-78
83
78
+5
82avg 70
A24/11
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
58-100
58
100
-42
41avg 70
A20/02
Asia Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-15
17-19
14-16
18-7
23-17
20-20
18-16
22-24
12-28
13-15
18-23
23-19
23-19
13-27
19-19
19-14
18-19
7-22
18-18
12-15
17-12
18-24
20-8
22-12
19-20
19-18
17-13
21-22
22-22
25-14
20-15
26-24
20-15
28-16
20-22
15-25
12-19
21-31
12-19
13-31
148.9Avg total
73.5Scored
75.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)77.476.4153.8+1.080%
Season at home (3)82.068.0150.0+14.0100%
Season away (2)70.589.0159.5-18.550%
Last 10 (10)73.575.4148.9-1.960%
Last 5 (5)77.476.4153.8+1.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)67.586.5154.0-19.025%
vs Similar (6)80.886.0166.8-5.233%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)87.965.6153.4+22.394%
This opponent (Mongolia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -3.3-3.3Q2: -2.5-2.5Q3Q3: -4.4-4.4Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -4.8-4.8Q4: -0.2-0.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -3.3-3.3Q2: -2.5-2.5Q3Q3: -4.4-4.4Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -4.8-4.8Q4: -0.2-0.2
MongoliaJapan
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MongoliaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Singapore
#28
W
51-18
51
18
+33
H25/02
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A26/02
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
28-44
28
44
-16
A26/09
Asian Games
Hong Kong
#12
L
30-37
30
37
-7
H28/09
Asian Games
Chinese Taipei
#6
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A30/09
Asian Games
China
#2
L
29-39
29
39
-10
A22/02
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H25/02
Asia Cup
Japan
#6
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A21/11
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
29-43
29
43
-14
H24/11
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
39-31
39
31
+8
A20/02
Asia Cup
74.1Avg total
36.1Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.040.279.2-1.243%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.239.777.9-1.543%-
Last 30 away (16)39.740.780.4-1.044%-
Last 10 (10)36.138.074.1-1.940%-
Last 5 (5)33.039.872.8-6.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)35.144.980.0-9.912%-
vs Similar (3)51.345.096.3+6.3100%-
vs Weaker (11)41.432.173.5+9.373%-
This opponent (Japan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
JapanLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indonesia
#15
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A28/09
Asian Games
South Korea
#5
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H30/09
Asian Games
Chinese Taipei
#6
L
25-43
25
43
-18
H03/10
Asian Games
Saudi Arabia
#7
L
36-46
36
46
-10
A04/10
Asian Games
South Korea
#5
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A06/10
Asian Games
Guam
#14
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H22/02
Asia Cup
China
#2
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H25/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H21/11
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A24/11
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
33-50
33
50
-17
A20/02
Asia Cup
76.0Avg total
36.8Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.039.279.2+0.743%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.637.277.8+3.450%-
Last 30 away (14)39.241.680.8-2.436%-
Last 10 (10)36.839.276.0-2.440%-
Last 5 (5)40.238.278.4+2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)32.845.678.4-12.912%-
vs Similar (6)33.545.579.0-12.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)46.033.779.7+12.375%-
This opponent (Mongolia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mongoliatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mongolia: 61.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀11%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.8 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws6.8 pts a game · 11% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.017.6
48.9%
49.3%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.46.6
28.2%
32.7%19.8
🏀 Free throws8.66.8
79.1%
70.1%6.8
They take 59.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Japantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Japan: 76.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀33%
🏀🏀🏀48%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers25.2 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers25.812.6
48.8%
49.3%25.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.212.2
30.3%
32.7%36.6
🏀 Free throws19.214.8
77.1%
70.1%14.8
They take 66.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 61% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 5/5 games with a box score before 23 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mongolia
WLLLLLLLLW
Japan
LWWWWLLLWW
#15
League position
#6
-25.6
Net rating
+1.3
84.2
Offensive rating
101.1
109.8
Defensive rating
99.8
46.3%
Effective FG%
46.8%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
45.3%
23.6%
Turnover %
16.0%
23.4%
Off. rebound %
26.5%
0.14
Free-throw rate
0.29
28.2%
3-point %
30.3%
50.4%
Assist %
78.2%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence84.2 · 101.1Defence109.8 · 99.8Shooting46.3% · 46.8%3-point %28.2% · 30.3%Ball care23.6% · 16.0%Off. rebounds23.4% · 26.5%Free throws0.14 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)20% · 60%
■ Mongolia   ■ Japan
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Mongolia wins
2
Japan wins
DateGameScore
21/11/24Japan v Mongolia93-75
28/09/14Mongolia v Japan70-96
Mongolialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/02/25AGuam74-63
24/11/24HChina52-90
21/11/24AJapan75-93
25/02/24HGuam63-74
22/02/24AChina49-80
30/09/23AChinese Taipei75-78
28/09/23HHong Kong64-69
26/09/23AChina50-89
26/02/23AGuam81-82
25/02/23HSingapore73-49
Japanlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/02/25AChina58-100
24/11/24AGuam83-78
21/11/24HMongolia93-75
25/02/24HChina76-73
22/02/24HGuam77-56
06/10/23ASouth Korea55-74
04/10/23ASaudi Arabia74-79
03/10/23HChinese Taipei66-85
30/09/23HSouth Korea83-77
28/09/23AIndonesia70-57

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mongolia
Asia Cup 2023
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW50%
HomeWWWLL67%
AwayLLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %50%67%33%
Points / game76.874.379.2
Allowed / game78.375.281.5
Point differential-1.6-0.8-2.3
Avg total155.1149.5160.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)100% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Japan
Asia Cup 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL80%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %80%100%50%
Points / game77.482.070.5
Allowed / game76.468.089.0
Point differential+1.0+14.0-18.5
Avg total153.8150.0159.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia550100%99.860.6+39.2
2 Lebanon550100%90.672.0+18.6
3 Jordan550100%78.064.6+13.4
4 New Zealand65183%87.766.0+21.7
5 China54180%88.857.6+31.2
6 Iran54180%73.052.0+21.0
7 Japan54180%77.476.4+1.0
8 Philippines64267%90.073.0+17.0
9 Thailand128467%86.776.8+9.8
10 Qatar106460%69.566.8+2.7
11 Iraq106460%73.771.4+2.3
12 South Korea53260%83.882.6+1.2
13 Saudi Arabia53260%67.067.8-0.8
14 Guam106460%70.573.5-3.0
15 Mongolia126650%76.878.3-1.6
16 Malaysia73443%74.075.7-1.7
17 Kuwait52340%73.270.2+3.0
18 Syria52340%75.475.2+0.2
19 United Arab Emirates104640%69.372.9-3.6
20 Bahrain52340%72.880.6-7.8
21 Kazakhstan52340%55.263.6-8.4
22 Chinese Taipei52340%72.483.0-10.6
23 Palestine103730%68.871.8-3.0
24 Vietnam41325%68.070.8-2.8
25 Hong Kong102820%63.981.2-17.3
26 India51420%59.878.6-18.8
27 Oman5050%57.674.8-17.2
28 Singapore5050%57.476.4-19.0
29 Indonesia5050%62.897.2-34.4
30 Tahiti4040%52.889.8-37.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Mongolia2222181779
Japan2323212289
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