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Nebraska vs Boise State Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Projected 83-67
Projected total 150.7
Scheduled
Position#20
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game89.0
Allowed / game60.7
Nebraska
USA
Vs
92%
■ NEBR 92%■ BOIS 8%
Pythia win probability
Boise State
USA
Position#1
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game114.3
Allowed / game71.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Nebraska hosts Boise State on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Nebraska the clear favourite, rating them 92% to win largely because of their undefeated 3-0 season record, 89.0 points scored per game and only 60.7 points allowed, placing them 21st in the league, while Boise State also stands 3-0 but with a higher 114.3 points per game and 71.0 allowed, leading the league. Nebraska has won every game at home, 3-0, and has won four of its last five, including a 106-64 victory over Le Moyne, a 94-60 win over Lindenwood and a 67-58 win over Providence, all at home. Boise State's road record is 3-0, with four of five wins on the road, highlighted by a 132-53 win over West Coast Baptist, a 111-79 win over Oakland and a 100-81 win over Butler. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 83-67 score, a 150.7 total, a -9.0 home line with a 75% chance of Nebraska covering, and a 156.5 total with a 36% over probability, while the chance of overtime is 2%. Nebraska's strong home defence and Boise State's high-scoring offence will clash in a game where the projected margin suggests a decisive win for the Cornhuskers.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nebraska win
91.9%fair 1.09
Best odds1.22
Implied80.1%
Edge+11.8pp
Boise State win
8.1%fair 12.40
Best odds4.90
Implied19.9%
Edge-11.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NebraskaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
USC
#153
W
82-67
82
67
+15
A28/02
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
52-72
52
72
-20
A04/03
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
84-75 OT
84
75
+9
H08/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
58-74
58
74
-16
H13/03
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
76-47
76
47
+29
H19/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
74-72
74
72
+2
H22/03
NCAA
Iowa
#81
L
71-77
71
77
-6
H26/03
NCAA
Le Moyne
#217
W
106-64
106
64
+42
H03/11
NCAA
Providence
#112
W
67-58
67
58
+9
H08/11
NCAA
Lindenwood
#250
W
94-60
94
60
+34
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-36
51-31
24-37
28-35
30-26
40-44
28-41
30-33
41-25
35-22
39-32
35-40
46-43
25-34
58-32
48-32
30-25
37-33
61-32
33-28
143.0Avg total
76.4Scored
66.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)89.060.7149.7+28.3100%
Season at home (3)89.060.7149.7+28.3100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.466.6143.0+9.870%
Last 5 (5)82.466.2148.6+16.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)72.075.0147.0-3.00%
vs Similar (10)71.670.9142.5+0.750%
vs Weaker (19)78.760.6139.3+18.195%
This opponent (Boise State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boise StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah State
#20
L
56-75
56
75
-19
A19/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
84-69
84
69
+15
H21/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
72-62
72
62
+10
H25/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
69-53
69
53
+16
A01/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
W
86-77
86
77
+9
H04/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
78-67
78
67
+11
A07/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
L
74-84
74
84
-10
H12/03
NCAA
West Coast Baptist
#536
W
132-53
132
53
+79
H05/11
NCAA
Butler
#200
W
100-81
100
81
+19
H08/11
NCAA
Oakland
#344
W
111-79
111
79
+32
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
23-30
33-45
36-31
48-38
32-30
40-32
28-23
41-30
34-27
52-50
36-28
42-39
39-41
35-43
69-26
63-27
51-31
49-50
52-42
59-37
156.2Avg total
86.2Scored
70.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)114.371.0185.3+43.3100%
Season at home (3)114.371.0185.3+43.3100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)86.270.0156.2+16.280%
Last 5 (5)99.072.8171.8+26.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)69.075.6144.6-6.660%
vs Similar (15)79.278.1157.3+1.153%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)92.467.7160.1+24.780%
This opponent (Nebraska) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151.5
Over 151.5
47.8%
@ 1.38-19.7pp
Under 151.5
52.2%
@ 2.90+19.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.80
Over/Under 156.5 · main line
Over 156.5
35.8%
@ 1.85-18.2pp
Under 156.5
64.2%
@ 2.10+18.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.70
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
Under
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
Marathon Be
1.92
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 161.5
Over 161.5
25.1%
@ 2.20-17.8pp
Under 161.5
74.9%
@ 1.77+17.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.15
Marathon Be
1.92
Under
Marathon Be
1.77
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.60

📊 3. Team Totals

Nebraska total 79
Over 79
68.1%
Under 79
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nebraska total 83 · main line
Over 83
52.0%
@ 1.85+2.0pp
Under 83
48.0%
@ 1.85-2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Nebraska total 87
Over 87
35.5%
Under 87
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boise State total 71
Over 71
34.5%
Under 71
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boise State total 75 · main line
Over 75
21.1%
@ 1.85-28.9pp
Under 75
78.9%
@ 1.85+28.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Boise State total 79
Over 79
11.6%
Under 79
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Nebraska -12.5
NEBR -12.5
62.8%
@ 2.35+22.8pp
BOIS +12.5
37.2%
@ 1.55-22.8pp
Best 5 market prices
NEBR
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
BOIS
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
Spread Nebraska -9.5 · main line
NEBR -9.5
72.5%
@ 1.92+22.3pp
BOIS +9.5
27.5%
@ 1.93-22.3pp
Best 5 market prices
NEBR
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
BOIS
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.85
Spread Nebraska -6.5
NEBR -6.5
80.7%
@ 1.80+20.5pp
BOIS +6.5
19.3%
@ 2.35-20.5pp
Best 5 market prices
NEBR
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Be
1.72
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
BOIS
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.32
1xBet
1.91

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +5.9+5.91st half: +9.1+9.12nd half2nd half: +3.0+3.02nd half: +7.1+7.1
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +5.9+5.91st half: +9.1+9.12nd half2nd half: +3.0+3.02nd half: +7.1+7.1
NebraskaBoise State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NebraskaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
USC
#153
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A28/02
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
24-37
24
37
-13
A04/03
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
30-26
30
26
+4
H08/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
28-41
28
41
-13
H13/03
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H19/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H22/03
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H26/03
NCAA
Le Moyne
#217
W
58-32
58
32
+26
H03/11
NCAA
Providence
#112
W
30-25
30
25
+5
H08/11
NCAA
Lindenwood
#250
W
61-32
61
32
+29
H12/11
NCAA
71.7Avg total
38.8Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)36.632.068.7+4.667%20%
Last 30 at home (20)37.830.468.2+7.480%25%
Last 30 away (10)34.335.369.6-1.040%10%
Last 10 (10)38.832.971.7+5.970%30%
Last 5 (5)46.832.879.6+14.0100%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)50.048.098.0+2.0100%100%
vs Similar (10)35.134.970.0+0.250%20%
vs Weaker (19)36.729.766.4+7.174%16%
This opponent (Boise State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boise StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah State
#20
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A19/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H25/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A01/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H04/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
36-28
36
28
+8
A07/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H12/03
NCAA
West Coast Baptist
#536
W
69-26
69
26
+43
H05/11
NCAA
Butler
#200
W
51-31
51
31
+20
H08/11
NCAA
Oakland
#344
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H12/11
NCAA
70.9Avg total
40.0Scored
30.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)36.933.069.9+3.967%33%
Last 30 at home (18)38.432.070.4+6.472%28%
Last 30 away (12)34.634.469.0+0.258%42%
Last 10 (10)40.030.970.9+9.180%40%
Last 5 (5)49.433.683.0+15.880%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)29.433.863.2-4.460%20%
vs Similar (15)35.132.767.8+2.360%20%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)43.432.976.3+10.580%60%
This opponent (Nebraska) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
NEBR win
no forecast
@ 1.33
BOIS win
no forecast
@ 3.50
1st half Spread Nebraska -3.5 · main line
NEBR -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
BOIS +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 76.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Nebraska 1st half total 39.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
Boise State 1st half total 35.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: NEBR + total 74.5
NEBR & over
no forecast
@ 2.70
NEBR & under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half: Draw + total 74.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 29.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 26.00
1st half: BOIS + total 74.5
BOIS & over
no forecast
@ 6.75
BOIS & under
no forecast
@ 6.25
1st half Spread Nebraska -4.5
NEBR -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
BOIS +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Spread Nebraska -2.5
NEBR -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
BOIS +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half Over/Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.22
Under
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Nebraska -5.5
NEBR -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
BOIS +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Spread Nebraska -1.5
NEBR -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
BOIS +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
1st half Over/Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.47
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
NEBR
no forecast
@ 1.35
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
BOIS
no forecast
@ 3.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
NEBR win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
BOIS win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: NEBR leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Boise State under 7681.7%1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84		----+31.4pp
Nebraska -780.2%1.68
Marathon Bet
1.78
Bet365
1.57		---+24.7pp
Under 15970.2%1.81
Pinnacle
1.84
SBO
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80		-+18.2pp
Nebraska (regulation)90.7%1.22
Marathon Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22		---+17.1pp
Nebraska win91.9%1.19
SBO
1.22
Marathon Bet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.19		+11.8pp
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Nebraska wins
0
Boise State wins
No previous meetings.
Nebraskalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HLindenwood94-60
08/11/26HProvidence67-58
03/11/26HLe Moyne106-64
26/03/26HIowa71-77
22/03/26HVanderbilt74-72
19/03/26HTroy76-47
13/03/26HPurdue58-74
08/03/26HIowa84-75 OT
04/03/26AUCLA52-72
28/02/26AUSC82-67
Boise Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HOakland111-79
08/11/26HButler100-81
05/11/26HWest Coast Baptist132-53
12/03/26HSan Jose State74-84
07/03/26AColorado State78-67
04/03/26HSan Diego State86-77
01/03/26AFresno State69-53
25/02/26HWyoming72-62
21/02/26HSan Jose State84-69
19/02/26AUtah State56-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nebraska
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game89.089.0-
Allowed / game60.760.7-
Point differential+28.3+28.3-
Avg total149.7149.7-
Over 156.533%33%-
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Boise State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game114.3114.3-
Allowed / game71.071.0-
Point differential+43.3+43.3-
Avg total185.3185.3-
Over 156.5100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boise State330100%114.371.0+43.3
2 Utah State440100%105.570.5+35.0
3 Grand Canyon440100%97.270.8+26.5
4 San Diego State330100%89.073.0+16.0
5 UNLV330100%84.374.7+9.7
6 New Mexico43175%93.271.0+22.2
7 Wyoming43175%81.859.8+22.0
8 Air Force43175%93.583.8+9.8
9 Colorado State43175%76.871.2+5.5
10 Fresno State43175%84.283.0+1.2
11 Nevada42250%79.073.2+5.8
12 San Jose State31233%83.081.7+1.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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