PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Notre Dame hosts Florida on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Gators as the stronger side; the projected score is 76-79 and the overall win probability sits at 60% for Florida versus 40% for Notre Dame. Notre Dame is undefeated this season with a 4-0 record, averaging 87.5 points and allowing 64.2, while Florida is also unbeaten at 3-0, scoring 82.0 and conceding 65.3; both teams sit near the top of their respective standings, Notre Dame at 54 and Florida at 76. At home Notre Dame has won all three of its home games, posting 92.0 points and 61.7 allowed, and has secured four wins in its last five outings, including a 99-59 victory over South Carolina St, a 94-70 win over Eastern Illinois, and an 83-56 triumph over Mercyhurst Lakers. Florida's sole road game was a 81-72 win over Florida State, and its last five games also contain four victories, such as an 88-57 win over Jacksonville Dolphins and a 77-67 win over Miami (FL). The projected total is 155.7 points, with a 5% chance of overtime. The game will test both teams' defensive resilience, and the Gators' recent road success may give them the edge.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 87.5 | 64.2 | 151.8 | +23.2 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 92.0 | 61.7 | 153.7 | +30.3 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 74.0 | 72.0 | 146.0 | +2.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 80.6 | 75.7 | 156.3 | +4.9 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.8 | 66.8 | 150.6 | +17.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (17) | 72.1 | 79.3 | 151.4 | -7.2 | 29% |
| vs Similar (8) | 72.8 | 73.9 | 146.6 | -1.1 | 38% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 86.4 | 63.0 | 149.4 | +23.4 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 82.0 | 65.3 | 147.3 | +16.7 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 82.5 | 62.0 | 144.5 | +20.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 81.0 | 72.0 | 153.0 | +9.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 88.0 | 70.6 | 158.6 | +17.4 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.4 | 64.8 | 151.2 | +21.6 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (1) | 77.0 | 67.0 | 144.0 | +10.0 | 100% |
| vs Weaker (29) | 88.0 | 71.0 | 159.0 | +17.0 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.8 | 35.5 | 69.3 | -1.7 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 36.2 | 35.4 | 71.6 | +0.8 | 41% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 30.5 | 35.6 | 66.2 | -5.1 | 23% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.0 | 34.8 | 70.8 | +1.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.6 | 29.8 | 69.4 | +9.8 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (17) | 33.1 | 39.1 | 72.1 | -6.0 | 18% | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 30.6 | 31.6 | 62.2 | -1.0 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 41.2 | 29.6 | 70.8 | +11.6 | 80% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.6 | 31.7 | 73.3 | +9.9 | 77% | - |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 42.5 | 31.9 | 74.4 | +10.6 | 84% | - |
| Last 30 away (11) | 40.1 | 31.4 | 71.5 | +8.7 | 64% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 43.8 | 32.3 | 76.1 | +11.5 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 43.6 | 29.4 | 73.0 | +14.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (1) | 46.0 | 36.0 | 82.0 | +10.0 | 100% | - |
| vs Weaker (29) | 41.4 | 31.6 | 73.0 | +9.9 | 76% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | South Carolina St | 99-59 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Eastern Illinois | 94-70 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Mercyhurst Lakers | 83-56 |
| 01/11/26 | A | Villanova | 74-72 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Boston College | 69-77 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Stanford | 78-86 |
| 28/02/26 | H | NC State | 96-90 OT |
| 25/02/26 | H | Duke | 56-100 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Pittsburgh | 68-73 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Georgia Tech | 89-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | A | Florida State | 81-72 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Jacksonville Dolphins | 88-57 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Miami (FL) | 77-67 |
| 22/03/26 | H | Iowa | 72-73 |
| 21/03/26 | H | Prairie View A&M | 114-55 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Vanderbilt | 74-91 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Kentucky | 71-63 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Kentucky | 84-77 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Mississippi St. | 108-74 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Arkansas | 111-77 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 87.5 | 92.0 | 74.0 |
| Allowed / game | 64.2 | 61.7 | 72.0 |
| Point differential | +23.2 | +30.3 | +2.0 |
| Avg total | 151.8 | 153.7 | 146.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 82.0 | 82.5 | 81.0 |
| Allowed / game | 65.3 | 62.0 | 72.0 |
| Point differential | +16.7 | +20.5 | +9.0 |
| Avg total | 147.3 | 144.5 | 153.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  Virginia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 3 |  SMU Mustangs | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.7 | 68.3 | +24.3 |
| 4 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.3 | 69.7 | +22.7 |
| 7 |  NC State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 64.7 | +21.0 |
| 9 |  North Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 68.3 | +20.0 |
| 10 |  Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 69.7 | +15.3 |
| 11 |  Stanford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 67.0 | +15.0 |
| 12 |  Clemson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 74.0 | +12.3 |
| 13 |  California | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.5 | 75.2 | +12.2 |
| 14 |  Duke | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 60.3 | +29.7 |
| 15 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 16 |  Miami (FL) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 79.7 | 61.7 | +18.0 |
| 17 |  Wake Forest | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.0 | 66.7 | +5.3 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 87.0 | -9.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  LSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 52.7 | +41.3 |
| 3 |  Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 4 |  Texas A&M | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 66.7 | +36.3 |
| 5 |  Mississippi St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 63.0 | +32.3 |
| 6 |  Vanderbilt | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 59.7 | +31.0 |
| 7 |  Auburn | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 56.0 | +27.5 |
| 8 |  Tennessee | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 53.0 | +27.0 |
| 9 |  Alabama | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 76.0 | +26.0 |
| 10 |  South Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 54.7 | +24.0 |
| 11 | Florida | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 65.3 | +16.7 |
| 12 |  Georgia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.3 | +12.7 |
| 13 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 14 |  Arkansas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 68.3 | +16.3 |
| 15 |  Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.3 | 65.7 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kentucky | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 75.3 | +5.7 |
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