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Oliveirense vs Braga Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 20 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#5
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game93.8
Allowed / game90.8
vs
Position#4
Record3-1
FormLLWWW
Points / game89.8
Allowed / game77.5
PortugalLPBRound 18· Pavilhão Dr. Salvador Machado
Other2026-27
Meetings · Oliveirense v Braga
20 Mar 2027
OLIV v BRAG
upcoming
14 Mar 2026
OLIV87
BRAG77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oliveirense win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Braga win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OliveirensePortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOliveirense
Date
Competition
Ovarense
#4
L
79-93
79
93
-14
65avg 75
A09/05
LPB
Ovarense
#4
W
90-72
90
72
+18
89avg 75
H13/05
LPB
Ovarense
#4
W
69-65
69
65
+4
64avg 75
A16/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
76-98
76
98
-22
68avg 75
A21/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
61-86
61
86
-25
52avg 75
A23/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
78-86
78
86
-8
75avg 75
H28/05
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
91-82
91
82
+9
82avg 75
A03/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
67-92
67
92
-25
49avg 75
A17/10
LPB
Esgueira
#12
W
104-80
104
80
+24
105avg 75
H24/10
LPB
CAB Madeira
#10
W
113-109 OT
113
109
+4
no box
A31/10
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-25
19-21
15-18
27-29
27-23
25-24
19-13
19-12
10-16
17-18
18-18
24-13
17-24
10-29
20-25
29-20
18-17
14-24
16-19
13-26
23-15
23-23
16-25
16-23
34-20
19-19
16-16
22-27
13-21
19-24
18-26
17-21
23-24
32-8
24-20
25-28
21-20
24-25
24-25
21-20
169.1Avg total
82.8Scored
86.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)93.890.8184.5+3.075%
Season at home (1)104.080.0184.0+24.0100%
Season away (3)90.394.3184.7-4.067%
Last 10 (10)82.886.3169.1-3.550%
Last 5 (5)90.689.8180.4+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)74.287.8162.0-13.512%
vs Similar (9)83.282.7165.9+0.656%
vs Weaker (13)91.081.7172.7+9.377%
This opponent (Braga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BragaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBraga
Date
Competition
Vitoria
#10
W
101-84
101
84
+17
107avg 76
H04/04
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
77-108
77
108
-31
66avg 76
A11/04
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
68-82
68
82
-14
58avg 76
H18/04
LPB
Ovarense
#4
W
74-67
74
67
+7
66avg 76
A25/04
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
72-90
72
90
-18
62avg 76
A09/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
79-94
79
94
-15
68avg 76
H13/05
LPB
Ovarense
#2
L
83-96
83
96
-13
71avg 76
A03/10
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
105-71
105
71
+34
107avg 76
H11/10
LPB
Vitoria
#9
W
91-72
91
72
+19
98avg 76
H18/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
80-71
80
71
+9
75avg 76
A25/10
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-19
40-22
29-22
21-21
17-28
15-26
27-30
18-24
21-17
19-29
12-21
16-15
28-21
16-14
18-19
12-13
19-24
15-22
24-24
14-20
18-22
18-22
23-33
20-17
19-26
9-26
20-23
35-21
28-18
33-21
17-18
27-14
20-12
23-18
26-22
22-20
20-22
23-14
19-14
18-21
166.5Avg total
83.0Scored
83.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)89.877.5167.2+12.275%
Season at home (2)98.071.5169.5+26.5100%
Season away (2)81.583.5165.0-2.050%
Last 10 (10)83.083.5166.5-0.550%
Last 5 (5)87.680.8168.4+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)74.287.2161.3-13.017%
vs Similar (8)80.681.8162.4-1.138%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)88.575.1163.6+13.480%
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: +1.7+1.7
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: +1.7+1.7
OliveirenseBraga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
OliveirenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ovarense
#4
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A09/05
LPB
Ovarense
#4
W
52-47
52
47
+5
H13/05
LPB
Ovarense
#4
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A16/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
27-53
27
53
-26
A21/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A23/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H28/05
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A03/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A17/10
LPB
Esgueira
#12
W
55-32
55
32
+23
H24/10
LPB
CAB Madeira
#10
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A31/10
LPB
82.6Avg total
40.6Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.241.484.5+1.857%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.341.189.4+7.285%-
Last 30 away (17)39.241.680.8-2.435%-
Last 10 (10)40.642.082.6-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)46.239.886.0+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)37.242.579.8-5.238%-
vs Similar (9)43.442.886.2+0.756%-
vs Weaker (13)46.639.786.3+6.969%-
This opponent (Braga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BragaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vitoria
#10
W
51-41
51
41
+10
H04/04
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
32-54
32
54
-22
A11/04
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H18/04
LPB
Ovarense
#4
W
44-35
44
35
+9
A25/04
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A09/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
36-44
36
44
-8
H13/05
LPB
Ovarense
#2
L
28-52
28
52
-24
A03/10
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
61-39
61
39
+22
H11/10
LPB
Vitoria
#9
W
43-30
43
30
+13
H18/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A25/10
LPB
83.5Avg total
41.2Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.042.081.0-3.043%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.940.179.0-1.244%-
Last 30 away (14)39.244.183.4-4.943%-
Last 10 (10)41.242.383.5-1.150%-
Last 5 (5)42.240.282.4+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)36.946.183.0-9.217%-
vs Similar (8)39.442.682.0-3.250%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)41.336.677.9+4.770%-
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oliveirensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oliveirense: 78.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.820.8
53.6%
50.9%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.27.5
27.6%
31.4%22.5
🏀 Free throws19.614.2
72.4%
70.6%14.2
They take 66.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bragatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Braga: 81.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.818.4
50.0%
50.9%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.49.7
34.2%
31.4%29.1
🏀 Free throws21.915.8
72.1%
70.6%15.8
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oliveirense
WWLWLLLWWL
Braga
WWWLLLWLLW
#5
League position
#4
-1.7
Net rating
+6.2
86.8
Offensive rating
91.8
88.4
Defensive rating
85.6
48.6%
Effective FG%
50.5%
48.4%
Opp. effective FG%
48.6%
18.2%
Turnover %
18.0%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.34
27.6%
3-point %
34.2%
59.4%
Assist %
72.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence86.8 · 91.8Defence88.4 · 85.6Shooting48.6% · 50.5%3-point %27.6% · 34.2%Ball care18.2% · 18.0%Free throws0.30 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Oliveirense   ■ Braga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Oliveirense wins
1
Braga wins
DateGameScore
14/03/26Oliveirense v Braga87-77
09/11/25Braga v Oliveirense66-63
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26ACAB Madeira113-109 OT
24/10/26HEsgueira104-80
17/10/26ABenfica67-92
03/10/26APortimonense91-82
28/05/26HBenfica78-86
23/05/26ABenfica61-86
21/05/26ABenfica76-98
16/05/26AOvarense69-65
13/05/26HOvarense90-72
09/05/26AOvarense79-93
Bragalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/26ACD Povoa80-71
18/10/26HVitoria91-72
11/10/26HPortimonense105-71
03/10/26AOvarense83-96
13/05/26HBenfica79-94
09/05/26ABenfica72-90
25/04/26AOvarense74-67
18/04/26HFC Porto68-82
11/04/26ABenfica77-108
04/04/26HVitoria101-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oliveirense
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %75%100%67%
Points / game93.8104.090.3
Allowed / game90.880.094.3
Point differential+3.0+24.0-4.0
Avg total184.5184.0184.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %25%0%33%
Braga
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game89.898.081.5
Allowed / game77.571.583.5
Point differential+12.2+26.5-2.0
Avg total167.2169.5165.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Benfica54180%87.475.0+12.4
2 Ovarense54180%81.874.0+7.8
3 FC Porto54180%93.486.0+7.4
4 Braga43175%89.877.5+12.2
5 Oliveirense43175%93.890.8+3.0
6 Sporting CP42250%78.576.8+1.8
7 CD Povoa42250%74.272.8+1.5
8 CA Queluz42250%89.093.8-4.8
9 Vitoria42250%75.082.0-7.0
10 CAB Madeira51420%86.289.2-3.0
11 Portimonense5050%76.088.6-12.6
12 Esgueira5050%77.695.0-17.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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