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Ovarense vs CA Queluz Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Projected 90-80
Projected total 170.7
Final 89-81
14-20 23-24 24-26 28-11
Position#3
Record5-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game83.7
Allowed / game76.2
Ovarense 🏆
Portugal
Vs
81%
19%
■ OVAR 81%■ CA Q 19%
Pythia win probability
CA Queluz
Portugal
Position#8
Record3-2
FormLWLWW
Points / game89.2
Allowed / game92.2
PortugalLPBRound 7· Arena de Ovar
Other2026-27
Meetings · Ovarense v CA Queluz
14 Nov 2026
OVAR89
CA Q81
11 Apr 2026
OVAR73
CA Q74
11 Jan 2025
OVAR86
CA Q84
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Ovarense hosts CA Queluz on 14 November 2026 in the LPB, with the model designating Ovarense as the clear favourite at 80% versus 20% for the visitors, a reflection of the home side's 5-1 record, 83.7 points scored and 76.2 allowed per game, and a second-place league position. Ovarense has gone 3-0 at home, averaging 84.0 points and conceding 76.0, and has won four of its last five games, including a 93-87 away win over Oliveirense, a 78-76 home victory over FC Porto and a narrow 70-71 loss to Sporting CP. CA Queluz, meanwhile, sits seventh with a 3-2 record, 89.2 points scored and 92.2 allowed, and has won both of its road contests, averaging 95.5 points and 88.0 allowed on the road, while its last five games include two wins and a loss to Benfica. In the four meetings between the clubs, Ovarense leads 3-1, though CA Queluz edged the most recent encounter 74-73 on 11 April 2026. Pythia projects a 90-80 scoreline for the game, a total of 169.7 points, and an 80% chance that Ovarense will cover the home line; the over is 4% likely, and a 4% chance of overtime. The game ends with Ovarense's 90 points, a concrete fact that frames the contest.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ovarense winWon
80.9%fair 1.24
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
CA Queluz winLost
19.1%fair 5.25
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OvarensePortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOvarense
Date
Competition
Braga
#7
L
67-74
67
74
-7
60avg 73
H25/04
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
93-79
93
79
+14
90avg 73
H09/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
72-90
72
90
-18
56avg 73
A13/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
65-69
65
69
-4
48avg 73
H16/05
LPB
Braga
#6
W
96-83
96
83
+13
47avg 73
H03/10
LPB
Vitoria
#9
W
87-71
87
71
+16
81avg 73
A10/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
78-69
78
69
+9
63avg 73
H17/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
70-71
70
71
-1
64avg 73
A24/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
W
78-76
78
76
+2
56avg 73
H31/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
W
93-87
93
87
+6
no box
A07/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-28
14-16
19-18
13-12
25-18
21-19
18-15
29-27
23-27
24-25
13-19
12-19
16-10
18-17
18-18
13-24
26-19
26-9
23-20
21-35
17-21
20-17
30-9
20-24
17-12
20-17
25-23
16-17
24-16
12-22
16-14
18-19
23-12
15-24
17-20
23-20
16-26
34-31
26-19
17-11
156.8Avg total
79.9Scored
76.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)83.776.2159.8+7.583%
Season at home (3)84.076.0160.0+8.0100%
Season away (3)83.376.3159.7+7.067%
Last 10 (10)79.976.9156.8+3.060%
Last 5 (5)81.274.8156.0+6.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)71.880.3152.2-8.517%
vs Similar (8)82.279.0161.2+3.262%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)84.977.1162.0+7.981%
This opponent (CA Queluz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CA QueluzPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormQueluz
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#2
L
94-99
94
99
-5
82avg 79
A29/03
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
91-84
91
84
+7
88avg 79
H04/04
LPB
Ovarense
#4
W
74-73
74
73
+1
71avg 79
A11/04
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
69-83
69
83
-14
52avg 79
A18/04
LPB
Galitos Barreiro
#12
W
105-74
105
74
+31
99avg 79
H25/04
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
93-110
93
110
-17
80avg 79
H02/10
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
87-83
87
83
+4
84avg 79
A17/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
72-89
72
89
-17
54avg 79
H24/10
LPB
Esgueira
#12
W
104-93
104
93
+11
96avg 79
A31/10
LPB
CAB Madeira
#10
W
90-86
90
86
+4
no box
H07/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-27
26-30
16-22
33-20
23-21
22-26
22-20
24-17
25-16
13-16
14-24
22-17
13-12
18-19
27-26
11-26
27-16
22-17
21-24
35-17
20-26
23-28
28-29
22-27
28-20
18-18
22-24
19-21
20-22
29-22
10-18
13-27
23-24
26-29
34-13
21-27
20-18
23-18
20-30
27-20
175.3Avg total
87.9Scored
87.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)89.292.2181.4-3.060%
Season at home (3)85.095.0180.0-10.033%
Season away (2)95.588.0183.5+7.5100%
Last 10 (10)87.987.4175.3+0.560%
Last 5 (5)89.292.2181.4-3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)79.993.8173.7-13.99%
vs Similar (13)83.183.8166.8-0.754%
vs Weaker (6)97.089.2186.2+7.867%
This opponent (Ovarense) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 161Actual: Over 161
Over 161
72.3%
Under 161
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166Actual: Over 166
Over 166
60.9%
Under 166
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171Actual: Under 171
Over 171
48.5%
Under 171
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Ovarense total 81Actual: Ovarense over 81
Over 81
83.1%
Under 81
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ovarense total 85Actual: Ovarense over 85
Over 85
70.9%
Under 85
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ovarense total 89Push
Over 89
55.4%
Under 89
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CA Queluz total 77.5Actual: CA Queluz over 77.5
Over 77.5
60.4%
Under 77.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CA Queluz total 81.5Actual: CA Queluz under 81.5
Over 81.5
44.9%
Under 81.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CA Queluz total 85.5Actual: CA Queluz under 85.5
Over 85.5
30.3%
Under 85.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Ovarense -3Actual: Ovarense -3
OVAR -3
74.9%
CA Q +3
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
OVAR
No market prices yet.
CA Q
No market prices yet.
Spread Ovarense 0Actual: Ovarense 0
OVAR 0
80.9%
CA Q 0
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
OVAR
No market prices yet.
CA Q
No market prices yet.
Spread Ovarense +3Actual: Ovarense +3
OVAR +3
86.6%
CA Q -3
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
OVAR
No market prices yet.
CA Q
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: +0.8+0.8
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: +0.8+0.8
OvarenseCA Queluz
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
OvarenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Braga
#7
L
35-44
35
44
-9
H25/04
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H09/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
47-52
47
52
-5
A13/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H16/05
LPB
Braga
#6
W
52-28
52
28
+24
H03/10
LPB
Vitoria
#9
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A10/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H17/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A24/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H31/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A07/11
LPB
79.8Avg total
41.2Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.240.381.6+0.940%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.737.977.6+1.753%-
Last 30 away (15)42.842.785.5+0.127%-
Last 10 (10)41.238.679.8+2.650%-
Last 5 (5)39.639.679.2+0.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)35.541.577.0-6.017%-
vs Similar (8)43.439.082.4+4.462%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)42.340.682.9+1.838%-
This opponent (CA Queluz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CA QueluzLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#2
L
45-57
45
57
-12
A29/03
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
45-47
45
47
-2
H04/04
LPB
Ovarense
#4
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A11/04
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A18/04
LPB
Galitos Barreiro
#12
W
49-33
49
33
+16
H25/04
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
43-54
43
54
-11
H02/10
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
46-38
46
38
+8
A17/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
W
49-44
49
44
+5
H24/10
LPB
Esgueira
#12
L
49-53
49
53
-4
A31/10
LPB
CAB Madeira
#10
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H07/11
LPB
86.3Avg total
43.8Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.345.288.5-1.937%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.445.589.9-1.133%-
Last 30 away (15)42.244.987.1-2.740%-
Last 10 (10)43.842.586.3+1.350%-
Last 5 (5)46.045.091.0+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)40.947.988.8-7.027%-
vs Similar (13)42.242.784.9-0.531%-
vs Weaker (6)50.045.795.7+4.367%-
This opponent (Ovarense) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Ovarensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ovarense: 71.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.4 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.519.3
48.9%
51.1%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.76.8
27.5%
31.9%20.4
🏀 Free throws16.412.0
73.2%
71.1%12.0
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
CA Queluztheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

CA Queluz: 89.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.122.2
52.7%
51.1%44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.79.0
36.4%
31.9%27.0
🏀 Free throws24.318.0
74.1%
71.1%18.0
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Ovarense
WWLWWWLLWL
CA Queluz
WWLWLWLWWL
#3
League position
#8
-5.3
Net rating
+0.7
83.9
Offensive rating
98.7
89.2
Defensive rating
98.0
46.0%
Effective FG%
53.4%
48.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.7%
14.8%
Turnover %
13.6%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.36
27.5%
3-point %
36.4%
64.0%
Assist %
63.5%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence83.9 · 98.7Defence89.2 · 98.0Shooting46.0% · 53.4%3-point %27.5% · 36.4%Ball care14.8% · 13.6%Free throws0.26 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Ovarense   ■ CA Queluz
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Ovarense wins
1
CA Queluz wins
DateGameScore
11/04/26Ovarense v CA Queluz73-74
27/12/25CA Queluz v Ovarense82-84
11/01/25Ovarense v CA Queluz86-84
26/10/24CA Queluz v Ovarense86-87
Ovarenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AOliveirense93-87
31/10/26HFC Porto78-76
24/10/26ASporting CP70-71
17/10/26HCD Povoa78-69
10/10/26AVitoria87-71
03/10/26HBraga96-83
16/05/26HOliveirense65-69
13/05/26AOliveirense72-90
09/05/26HOliveirense93-79
25/04/26HBraga67-74
CA Queluzlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HCAB Madeira90-86
31/10/26AEsgueira104-93
24/10/26HBenfica72-89
17/10/26APortimonense87-83
02/10/26HFC Porto93-110
25/04/26HGalitos Barreiro105-74
18/04/26ASporting CP69-83
11/04/26AOvarense74-73
04/04/26HOliveirense91-84
29/03/26AFC Porto94-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ovarense
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW83%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %83%100%67%
Points / game83.784.083.3
Allowed / game76.276.076.3
Point differential+7.5+8.0+7.0
Avg total159.8160.0159.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
CA Queluz
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW60%
HomeLLW33%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %60%33%100%
Points / game89.285.095.5
Allowed / game92.295.088.0
Point differential-3.0-10.0+7.5
Avg total181.4180.0183.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 FC Porto76186%91.681.6+10.0
2 Benfica65183%91.575.5+16.0
3 Ovarense65183%83.776.2+7.5
4 CD Povoa64267%76.072.2+3.8
5 Oliveirense64267%92.290.0+2.2
6 CA Queluz53260%89.292.2-3.0
7 Braga74357%88.181.1+7.0
8 Sporting CP63350%81.875.5+6.3
9 Vitoria72529%68.783.9-15.1
10 CAB Madeira61517%86.289.3-3.2
11 Portimonense6060%75.787.8-12.2
12 Esgueira6060%77.797.8-20.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Ovarense1423242889
CA Queluz2024261181
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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