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Pavlodar vs ChelSU Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 22 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 09:00
Final 61-88
21-19 13-29 13-27 14-13
Position#8
Record0-1
FormLLWLL
Points / game52.0
Allowed / game104.0
vs
Position#6
Record0-1
FormLLLWL
Points / game64.0
Allowed / game79.0
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2026-27
Meetings · Pavlodar v ChelSU Kostanay
25 Oct 2026
PAVL55
CHEL86
22 Oct 2026
PAVL61
CHEL88
16 Apr 2026
PAVL70
CHEL74
14 Apr 2026
PAVL44
CHEL64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
ChelSU Kostanay winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPavlodar
Date
Competition
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
44-64
44
64
-20
21avg 40
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
67-80
67
80
-13
50avg 40
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
70-74
70
74
-4
49avg 40
H16/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
55-77
55
77
-22
38avg 40
A17/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
64-84
64
84
-20
51avg 40
A03/05
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
65-76
65
76
-11
55avg 40
H04/05
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
41-96
41
96
-55
22avg 40
A05/05
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
64-58
64
58
+6
50avg 40
H06/05
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
49-73
49
73
-24
30avg 40
A07/05
Higher League
Tulpar
#4
L
52-104
52
104
-52
no box
A21/10
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-12
11-21
9-12
16-19
24-29
19-21
8-17
16-13
14-24
20-7
14-17
22-26
11-19
15-23
13-17
16-18
14-27
18-18
17-18
15-21
22-21
14-19
12-25
17-11
10-24
14-38
5-22
12-12
16-12
18-12
21-19
9-15
15-25
18-13
8-20
8-15
14-26
14-31
14-22
10-25
135.7Avg total
57.1Scored
78.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)52.0104.0156.0-52.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)52.0104.0156.0-52.00%
Last 10 (10)57.178.6135.7-21.510%
Last 5 (5)54.281.4135.6-27.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)56.489.2145.6-32.84%
vs Similar (2)76.560.5137.0+16.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChelSU KostanayKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKostanay
Date
Competition
Pavlodar
#14
W
64-44
64
44
+20
54avg 69
A14/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
70-85
70
85
-15
63avg 69
H15/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
74-70
74
70
+4
65avg 69
A16/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
61-78
61
78
-17
50avg 69
H17/04
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
64-115
64
115
-51
50avg 69
A26/04
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
75-88
75
88
-13
72avg 69
H27/04
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
80-83
80
83
-3
75avg 69
A29/04
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
69-69
69
69
+0
61avg 69
H30/04
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
81-79
81
79
+2
84avg 69
A02/05
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#2
L
64-79
64
79
-15
no box
H21/10
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-8
21-11
12-9
19-16
20-24
27-26
7-19
16-16
24-14
7-20
17-14
26-22
17-19
9-14
19-25
16-20
18-29
15-27
15-35
16-24
22-28
9-20
22-17
22-23
19-19
21-26
17-20
23-18
16-23
15-15
12-19
26-12
13-22
20-19
26-22
22-16
13-18
15-25
21-12
15-24
149.2Avg total
70.2Scored
79.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)64.079.0143.0-15.00%
Season at home (1)64.079.0143.0-15.00%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)70.279.0149.2-8.830%
Last 5 (5)73.879.6153.4-5.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)74.387.8162.1-13.512%
vs Similar (5)78.078.8156.8-0.880%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)76.561.6138.1+14.9100%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -7.1-7.1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: -4.2-4.2Q2: -4.4-4.4Q3Q3: -6.8-6.8Q3: -2.4-2.4Q4Q4: -3.4-3.4Q4: +1.0+1.0
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -7.1-7.1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: -4.2-4.2Q2: -4.4-4.4Q3Q3: -6.8-6.8Q3: -2.4-2.4Q4Q4: -3.4-3.4Q4: +1.0+1.0
PavlodarChelSU Kostanay
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
19-33
19
33
-14
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H16/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A17/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A03/05
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H04/05
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
24-62
24
62
-38
A05/05
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
34-24
34
24
+10
H06/05
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A07/05
Higher League
Tulpar
#4
L
28-57
28
57
-29
A21/10
Higher League
73.1Avg total
30.9Scored
42.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.446.174.5-17.817%-
Last 30 at home (14)30.239.669.9-9.436%-
Last 30 away (16)26.851.878.6-25.10%-
Last 10 (10)30.942.273.1-11.320%-
Last 5 (5)31.044.275.2-13.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)28.047.075.0-19.114%-
vs Similar (2)34.033.567.5+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChelSU KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pavlodar
#14
W
33-19
33
19
+14
A14/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H15/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A16/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
26-33
26
33
-7
H17/04
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A26/04
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
31-48
31
48
-17
H27/04
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
40-45
40
45
-5
A29/04
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H30/04
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A02/05
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#2
L
28-43
28
43
-15
H21/10
Higher League
74.0Avg total
33.3Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.740.377.0-3.540%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.142.480.6-4.344%-
Last 30 away (14)35.137.872.9-2.636%-
Last 10 (10)33.340.774.0-7.410%-
Last 5 (5)32.643.075.6-10.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)35.646.181.8-10.518%-
vs Similar (5)36.038.074.0-2.040%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)39.529.268.8+10.288%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pavlodartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pavlodar: 58.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers14.4 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.218.0
37.3%
49.5%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.34.8
21.5%
28.5%14.4
🏀 Free throws15.18.4
55.6%
63.9%8.4
They take 70.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
ChelSU Kostanaytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

ChelSU Kostanay: 71.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.319.6
47.5%
49.5%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.77.7
26.8%
28.5%23.1
🏀 Free throws13.59.1
67.4%
63.9%9.1
They take 70.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pavlodar
LLWLLLLLLL
ChelSU Kostanay
LWLLLLLWLW
#8
League position
#6
-19.2
Net rating
-10.6
75.3
Offensive rating
91.6
94.5
Defensive rating
102.2
35.7%
Effective FG%
44.5%
43.8%
Opp. effective FG%
47.9%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.19
21.5%
3-point %
26.8%
39.0%
Assist %
68.9%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence75.3 · 91.6Defence94.5 · 102.2Shooting35.7% · 44.5%3-point %21.5% · 26.8%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.21 · 0.19Form (last 10/10)10% · 30%
■ Pavlodar   ■ ChelSU Kostanay
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Pavlodar wins
4
ChelSU Kostanay wins
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/10/26ATulpar52-104
07/05/26AArlans49-73
06/05/26HAiRom64-58
05/05/26ATigers-KazATU41-96
04/05/26HTobol Kostanay 265-76
03/05/26AKaraganda64-84
17/04/26ATobol Kostanay 255-77
16/04/26HChelSU Kostanay70-74
15/04/26ATobol Kostanay 267-80
14/04/26HChelSU Kostanay44-64
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/10/26HBC Almaty 264-79
02/05/26ACHAMP1ON81-79
30/04/26HAktobe69-69
29/04/26AAktobe80-83
27/04/26HShymkent75-88
26/04/26AShymkent64-115
17/04/26HKaraganda61-78
16/04/26APavlodar74-70
15/04/26HKaraganda70-85
14/04/26APavlodar64-44

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pavlodar
Higher League 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
Home--
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %0%-0%
Points / game52.0-52.0
Allowed / game104.0-104.0
Point differential-52.0--52.0
Avg total156.0-156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
ChelSU Kostanay
Higher League 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
HomeL0%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %0%0%-
Points / game64.064.0-
Allowed / game79.079.0-
Point differential-15.0-15.0-
Avg total143.0143.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tulpar220100%91.560.0+31.5
2 Bars Petropavlovsk550100%85.865.4+20.4
3 Tigers-KazATU53260%75.469.6+5.8
4 BC Almaty 221150%73.571.5+2.0
5 Karaganda52340%68.274.8-6.6
6 ChelSU Kostanay1010%64.079.0-15.0
7 Arlans5050%68.287.8-19.6
8 Pavlodar1010%52.0104.0-52.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pavlodar2113131461
ChelSU Kostanay1929271388
← all games of the day
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