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Tigers-KazATU vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 05 May 2026
Tip-off: 05:00
Final 96-41
24-10 38-14 22-5 12-12
Position#10
Record12-18
FormLLWWL
Points / game68.5
Allowed / game76.4
vs
Position#14
Record2-28
FormLLLLL
Points / game57.0
Allowed / game86.8
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Tigers-KazATU v Pavlodar
05 May 2026
TIGE96
PAVL41
16 Nov 2025
TIGE68
PAVL49
14 Nov 2025
TIGE75
PAVL55
12 Mar 2023
TIGE75
PAVL79
14 Feb 2023
TIGE76
PAVL67
24 Dec 2022
TIGE73
PAVL82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tigers-KazATU winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Tigers-KazATUKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
82-69
82
69
+13
A14/03
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
67-50
67
50
+17
H15/03
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
67-71
67
71
-4
A16/03
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
85-81
85
81
+4
H17/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
71-75
71
75
-4
H14/04
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
80-86
80
86
-6
A15/04
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
68-85
68
85
-17
H16/04
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
81-78
81
78
+3
A17/04
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
75-66
75
66
+9
H03/05
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
61-86
61
86
-25
A04/05
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-17
23-13
17-16
25-23
20-15
9-8
21-14
17-13
14-18
19-20
16-13
18-20
15-19
10-19
30-17
30-26
10-12
24-21
19-28
18-14
17-23
22-27
14-22
27-14
22-21
24-20
10-20
12-24
24-23
21-21
19-19
17-15
22-18
13-9
18-17
22-22
16-22
14-18
21-22
10-24
148.4Avg total
73.7Scored
74.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)68.576.4144.9-7.940%
Season at home (13)70.773.2143.8-2.554%
Season away (17)66.878.9145.7-12.129%
Last 10 (10)73.774.7148.4-1.050%
Last 5 (5)73.080.2153.2-7.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)59.888.5148.3-28.77%
vs Similar (8)78.573.8152.2+4.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)75.753.4129.1+22.3100%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
64-92
64
92
-28
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
78-92
78
92
-14
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
69-94
69
94
-25
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
69-75
69
75
-6
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
44-64
44
64
-20
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
67-80
67
80
-13
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
70-74
70
74
-4
H16/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
55-77
55
77
-22
A17/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
64-84
64
84
-20
A03/05
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
65-76
65
76
-11
H04/05
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-35
16-21
13-20
18-16
15-24
18-26
23-26
22-16
15-25
18-22
15-22
21-25
20-19
19-17
20-20
10-19
8-12
11-21
9-12
16-19
24-29
19-21
8-17
16-13
14-24
20-7
14-17
22-26
11-19
15-23
13-17
16-18
14-27
18-18
17-18
15-21
22-21
14-19
12-25
17-11
145.3Avg total
64.5Scored
80.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)57.086.8143.8-29.77%
Season at home (15)58.682.7141.3-24.113%
Season away (15)55.590.9146.3-35.40%
Last 10 (10)64.580.8145.3-16.30%
Last 5 (5)64.278.2142.4-14.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)55.688.6144.3-33.00%
vs Similar (2)76.560.5137.0+16.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Tigers-KazATU) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: -7.5-7.5Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -5.0-5.0Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: -1.1-1.1
Tigers-KazATUPavlodar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Tigers-KazATULast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
40-30
40
30
+10
A14/03
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
29-23
29
23
+6
H15/03
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A16/03
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
25-38
25
38
-13
H17/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H14/04
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
39-50
39
50
-11
A15/04
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H16/04
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A17/04
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H03/05
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A04/05
Higher League
72.0Avg total
35.6Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.038.172.1-4.147%-
Last 30 at home (13)35.235.871.0-0.562%-
Last 30 away (17)33.139.973.0-6.935%-
Last 10 (10)35.636.472.0-0.860%-
Last 5 (5)39.040.479.4-1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)29.345.174.4-15.720%-
vs Similar (8)40.837.678.4+3.162%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)36.323.960.1+12.486%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
19-33
19
33
-14
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H16/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A17/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A03/05
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H04/05
Higher League
75.8Avg total
32.8Scored
43.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)27.346.073.3-18.713%-
Last 30 at home (15)29.042.371.3-13.327%-
Last 30 away (15)25.649.875.4-24.20%-
Last 10 (10)32.843.075.8-10.220%-
Last 5 (5)34.241.675.8-7.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)26.846.973.8-20.111%-
vs Similar (2)34.033.567.5+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Tigers-KazATU) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tigers-KazATUtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tigers-KazATU: 73.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.717.2
42.3%
49.5%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.59.3
32.6%
28.5%27.9
🏀 Free throws17.511.4
65.1%
63.9%11.4
They take 69.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pavlodartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pavlodar: 65.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀11%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers16.5 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws7.1 pts a game · 11% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.620.7
39.4%
49.5%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.05.5
25.0%
28.5%16.5
🏀 Free throws13.57.1
52.6%
63.9%7.1
They take 74.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 29% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tigers-KazATU
LWWLLLWLWW
Pavlodar
LLLLLLLLLL
#10
League position
#14
-1.3
Net rating
-17.1
99.4
Offensive rating
79.9
100.7
Defensive rating
97.0
45.0%
Effective FG%
38.8%
50.8%
Opp. effective FG%
45.2%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.18
32.6%
3-point %
25.0%
40.4%
Assist %
35.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
0%

Profile

Offence99.4 · 79.9Defence100.7 · 97.0Shooting45.0% · 38.8%3-point %32.6% · 25.0%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.25 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)50% · 0%
■ Tigers-KazATU   ■ Pavlodar
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Tigers-KazATU wins
2
Pavlodar wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/05/26AKaraganda61-86
03/05/26HAiRom75-66
17/04/26ACHAMP1ON81-78
16/04/26HBC Almaty 268-85
15/04/26ACHAMP1ON80-86
14/04/26HBC Almaty 271-75
17/03/26HAiRom85-81
16/03/26AArlans67-71
15/03/26HAiRom67-50
14/03/26AArlans82-69
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/05/26HTobol Kostanay 265-76
03/05/26AKaraganda64-84
17/04/26ATobol Kostanay 255-77
16/04/26HChelSU Kostanay70-74
15/04/26ATobol Kostanay 267-80
14/04/26HChelSU Kostanay44-64
29/03/26HCHAMP1ON69-75
28/03/26ABC Almaty 269-94
27/03/26HCHAMP1ON78-92
26/03/26ABC Almaty 264-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tigers-KazATU
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL40%
HomeWWLLW54%
AwayWLLWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301317
Win %40%54%29%
Points / game68.570.766.8
Allowed / game76.473.278.9
Point differential-7.9-2.5-12.1
Avg total144.9143.8145.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%31%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)50% (4)40% (5)
Overtime %3%8%0%
Pavlodar
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL7%
HomeLLLLL13%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %7%13%0%
Points / game57.058.655.5
Allowed / game86.882.790.9
Point differential-29.7-24.1-35.4
Avg total143.8141.3146.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+3%7%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan33330100%86.959.7+27.2
2 Shymkent3329488%94.070.1+23.8
3 Bars Petropavlovsk3326779%84.762.9+21.8
4 Aktobe3325876%81.868.7+13.0
5 BC Almaty 233201361%83.874.5+9.2
6 Atyrau 233191458%75.771.5+4.2
7 Karaganda30151550%80.577.4+3.1
8 ChelSU Kostanay33161748%74.979.7-4.8
9 CHAMP1ON33141942%72.277.7-5.5
10 Tigers-KazATU30121840%68.576.4-7.9
11 Arlans3092130%73.982.5-8.6
12 Tobol Kostanay 23092130%70.180.8-10.7
13 AiRom3052517%63.882.2-18.5
14 Pavlodar302287%57.086.8-29.7
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2281274%55.783.1-27.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Tigers-KazATU2438221296
Pavlodar101451241
← all games of the day
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