PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Pavlodar vs ChelSU Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 14 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 07:00
Final 44-64
8-12 11-21 9-12 16-19
Position#14
Record2-22
FormLLLLL
Points / game56.1
Allowed / game89.5
vs
Position#8
Record13-11
FormLWLLL
Points / game76.4
Allowed / game80.0
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Pavlodar v ChelSU Kostanay
16 Apr 2026
PAVL70
CHEL74
14 Apr 2026
PAVL44
CHEL64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
ChelSU Kostanay winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Pavlodar
Needs player box scores: 6 games per player in the last year.
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 56.1
63.2▲ 7.1
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 89.5
87.4▼ 2.1
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 40%
40%▲ 0%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 10.5
10.5▲ 0.0
🔥 Form · ChelSU Kostanay
Needs player box scores: 6 games per player in the last year.
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 76.4
80.4▲ 4.0
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 80.0
93.4▲ 13.4
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 52%
53%▲ 1%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 16.2
14.8▼ 1.4
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aktobe
#4
L
52-86
52
86
-34
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
55-93
55
93
-38
H10/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
55-101
55
101
-46
A11/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
57-86
57
86
-29
H12/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
61-98
61
98
-37
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
36-84
36
84
-48
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
64-92
64
92
-28
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
78-92
78
92
-14
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
69-94
69
94
-25
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
69-75
69
75
-6
H29/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-16
13-28
8-23
14-19
7-28
13-21
17-25
18-19
8-31
12-27
12-23
23-20
14-30
11-15
15-23
17-18
23-29
12-23
16-23
10-23
2-26
12-18
6-28
16-12
17-35
16-21
13-20
18-16
15-24
18-26
23-26
22-16
15-25
18-22
15-22
21-25
20-19
19-17
20-20
10-19
149.7Avg total
59.6Scored
90.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)56.189.5145.6-33.48%
Season at home (12)58.385.5143.8-27.217%
Season away (12)53.893.5147.3-39.70%
Last 10 (10)59.690.1149.7-30.50%
Last 5 (5)63.287.4150.6-24.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)59.191.5150.6-32.44%
vs Similar (2)76.560.5137.0+16.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChelSU KostanayKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
77-73
77
73
+4
A18/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
62-55
62
55
+7
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
71-69
71
69
+2
A20/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
83-68
83
68
+15
H21/01
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
68-85
68
85
-17
A02/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
99-103
99
103
-4
H03/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
93-88
93
88
+5
A04/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
78-105
78
105
-27
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
56-85
56
85
-29
A11/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
76-86
76
86
-10
H12/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-17
12-19
22-17
27-20
18-12
15-20
16-16
13-7
19-15
16-15
18-20
18-19
16-21
26-13
32-19
9-15
15-24
23-16
16-22
14-23
23-24
30-25
27-28
19-26
24-27
22-16
16-26
31-19
14-21
17-38
17-30
30-16
13-20
18-21
8-22
17-22
19-20
17-18
20-21
20-27
158.0Avg total
76.3Scored
81.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)76.480.0156.3-3.654%
Season at home (13)81.881.4163.2+0.562%
Season away (11)69.978.3148.2-8.445%
Last 10 (10)76.381.7158.0-5.450%
Last 5 (5)80.493.4173.8-13.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)71.088.6159.6-17.613%
vs Similar (7)74.776.3151.0-1.671%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)72.452.9125.2+19.5100%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-16-8+0+8+16Q1Q1: -12.5-12.5Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: -7.4-7.4Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: -8.8-8.8Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: +0.4+0.4
PavlodarChelSU Kostanay
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aktobe
#4
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
20-49
20
49
-29
H10/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
20-58
20
58
-38
A11/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
25-45
25
45
-20
H12/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
14-44
14
44
-30
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H29/03
Higher League
76.3Avg total
28.2Scored
48.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.647.476.0-18.817%-
Last 30 at home (13)31.044.875.8-13.831%-
Last 30 away (17)26.849.476.2-22.56%-
Last 10 (10)28.248.176.3-19.910%-
Last 5 (5)30.446.677.0-16.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)28.248.476.6-20.114%-
vs Similar (2)34.033.567.5+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChelSU KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A18/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A20/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
42-34
42
34
+8
H21/01
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A02/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H03/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A04/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
31-59
31
59
-28
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A11/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H12/03
Higher League
77.5Avg total
37.3Scored
40.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)36.640.977.4-4.345%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.442.381.7-2.953%-
Last 30 away (14)33.539.372.8-5.836%-
Last 10 (10)37.340.277.5-2.950%-
Last 5 (5)39.446.085.4-6.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)33.648.582.1-14.920%-
vs Similar (7)37.138.075.1-0.943%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)42.327.369.6+15.0100%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pavlodartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pavlodar: 71.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀65%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀10%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.0 pts a game · 65% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws7.2 pts a game · 10% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.223.0
41.6%
49.5%46.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.06.0
23.1%
28.5%18.0
🏀 Free throws16.27.2
44.6%
63.9%7.2
They take 81.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
ChelSU Kostanaytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

ChelSU Kostanay: 78.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.5 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.6 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.420.8
51.4%
49.5%41.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.16.9
27.4%
28.5%20.6
🏀 Free throws23.015.9
69.0%
63.9%15.9
They take 65.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 4/8 games with a box score before 14 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pavlodar
LLLLLLLLLL
ChelSU Kostanay
LLLWLLWWWW
#14
League position
#8
-19.5
Net rating
-10.3
81.7
Offensive rating
99.0
101.2
Defensive rating
109.3
39.4%
Effective FG%
47.4%
50.0%
Opp. effective FG%
49.1%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.35
23.1%
3-point %
27.4%
36.2%
Assist %
58.8%
0%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence81.7 · 99.0Defence101.2 · 109.3Shooting39.4% · 47.4%3-point %23.1% · 27.4%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.20 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)0% · 50%
■ Pavlodar   ■ ChelSU Kostanay
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Pavlodar wins
2
ChelSU Kostanay wins
DateGameScore
07/04/23ChelSU Kostanay v Pavlodar91-89
16/11/22ChelSU Kostanay v Pavlodar78-76
21/10/22ChelSU Kostanay v Pavlodar66-87
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/03/26HCHAMP1ON69-75
28/03/26ABC Almaty 269-94
27/03/26HCHAMP1ON78-92
26/03/26ABC Almaty 264-92
14/02/26AKaraganda36-84
13/02/26AAiRom61-98
12/02/26HArlans57-86
11/02/26AAiRom55-101
10/02/26HArlans55-93
19/01/26HAktobe52-86
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/26HAktobe76-86
11/03/26AAktobe56-85
05/03/26HBC Almaty 278-105
04/03/26ACHAMP1ON93-88
03/03/26HBC Almaty 299-103
02/03/26ACHAMP1ON68-85
21/01/26HAiRom83-68
20/01/26AArlans71-69
19/01/26HAiRom62-55
18/01/26AArlans77-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pavlodar
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL8%
HomeLLLLL17%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %8%17%0%
Points / game56.158.353.8
Allowed / game89.585.593.5
Point differential-33.4-27.2-39.7
Avg total145.6143.8147.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+4%8%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
ChelSU Kostanay
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL54%
HomeWWLLL62%
AwayWWLWL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241311
Win %54%62%45%
Points / game76.481.869.9
Allowed / game80.081.478.3
Point differential-3.6+0.5-8.4
Avg total156.3163.2148.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%31%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (7)75% (4)100% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan25250100%89.060.3+28.6
2 Shymkent2522388%95.668.3+27.4
3 Aktobe2823582%83.067.5+15.6
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2419579%85.960.0+25.9
5 Atyrau 22517868%78.269.4+8.8
6 BC Almaty 22416867%83.573.1+10.5
7 CHAMP1ON24131154%74.773.3+1.4
8 ChelSU Kostanay24131154%76.480.0-3.6
9 Karaganda25111444%79.979.2+0.8
10 Tigers-KazATU24101442%67.575.7-8.2
11 Arlans2882029%73.683.0-9.4
12 AiRom2852318%63.282.5-19.3
13 Tobol Kostanay 22542116%68.283.1-14.9
14 Pavlodar242228%56.189.5-33.4
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2251244%54.683.4-28.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pavlodar81191644
ChelSU Kostanay1221121964
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.