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Tobol Kostanay 2 vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 15 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 07:00
Final 80-67
29-24 21-19 17-8 13-16
Position#12
Record4-21
FormLLLLL
Points / game68.2
Allowed / game83.1
vs
Position#14
Record2-23
FormLLLLL
Points / game55.6
Allowed / game88.5
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Tobol Kostanay 2 v Pavlodar
17 Apr 2026
TOBO77
PAVL55
15 Apr 2026
TOBO80
PAVL67
22 Mar 2016
TOBO56
PAVL58
18 Feb 2016
TOBO61
PAVL56
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tobol Kostanay 2 winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Tobol Kostanay 2
Needs player box scores: 6 games per player in the last year.
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 68.2
64.2▼ 4.0
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 83.1
93.0▲ 9.9
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 43%
45%▲ 1%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 13.6
9.7▼ 3.9
🔥 Form · Pavlodar
Needs player box scores: 6 games per player in the last year.
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 55.6
64.8▲ 9.2
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 88.5
83.4▼ 5.1
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 38%
38%▲ 0%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 9.4
9.4▲ 0.0
Tobol Kostanay 2KazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
L
66-93
66
93
-27
H19/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
68-72 OT
68
72
-4
A20/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
88-56
88
56
+32
H21/01
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
45-70
45
70
-25
A02/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
51-85
51
85
-34
H03/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
63-85
63
85
-22
A04/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
86-92
86
92
-6
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
46-95
46
95
-49
A09/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
61-110
61
110
-49
H10/03
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
65-83
65
83
-18
A14/04
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-20
13-30
27-27
6-16
18-19
22-13
17-13
8-20
25-19
23-15
22-9
18-13
4-29
9-20
9-11
23-10
20-22
14-30
17-21
0-12
19-18
19-18
12-28
13-21
21-21
17-24
28-26
20-21
8-32
13-19
8-23
17-21
15-27
22-23
6-32
18-28
15-17
18-23
10-22
22-21
148.0Avg total
63.9Scored
84.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)68.283.1151.4-14.916%
Season at home (11)69.783.4153.1-13.627%
Season away (14)67.182.9150.0-15.97%
Last 10 (10)63.984.1148.0-20.210%
Last 5 (5)64.293.0157.2-28.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)63.988.1152.0-24.20%
vs Similar (8)68.674.2142.9-5.625%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)79.857.5137.2+22.275%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
L
55-93
55
93
-38
H10/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
55-101
55
101
-46
A11/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
57-86
57
86
-29
H12/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
61-98
61
98
-37
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
36-84
36
84
-48
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
64-92
64
92
-28
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
78-92
78
92
-14
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
69-94
69
94
-25
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
69-75
69
75
-6
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
44-64
44
64
-20
H14/04
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
7-28
13-21
17-25
18-19
8-31
12-27
12-23
23-20
14-30
11-15
15-23
17-18
23-29
12-23
16-23
10-23
2-26
12-18
6-28
16-12
17-35
16-21
13-20
18-16
15-24
18-26
23-26
22-16
15-25
18-22
15-22
21-25
20-19
19-17
20-20
10-19
8-12
11-21
9-12
16-19
146.7Avg total
58.8Scored
87.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)55.688.5144.1-32.98%
Season at home (13)57.283.8141.1-26.615%
Season away (12)53.893.5147.3-39.70%
Last 10 (10)58.887.9146.7-29.10%
Last 5 (5)64.883.4148.2-18.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)57.890.9148.7-33.04%
vs Similar (2)76.560.5137.0+16.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-16-8+0+8+16Q1Q1: -5.9-5.9Q1: -13.0-13.0Q2Q2: -4.5-4.5Q2: -6.9-6.9Q3Q3: -5.6-5.6Q3: -7.6-7.6Q4Q4: -3.8-3.8Q4: -1.6-1.6
Tobol Kostanay 2Pavlodar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Tobol Kostanay 2Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H19/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A20/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H21/01
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
13-49
13
49
-36
A02/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
34-52
34
52
-18
H03/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A04/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-45
38
45
-7
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
21-51
21
51
-30
A09/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
37-50
37
50
-13
H10/03
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/04
Higher League
77.4Avg total
33.5Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.242.077.1-6.830%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.541.577.9-5.033%-
Last 30 away (15)33.942.576.3-8.627%-
Last 10 (10)33.543.977.4-10.430%-
Last 5 (5)33.444.477.8-11.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)33.146.379.4-13.317%-
vs Similar (8)36.139.875.9-3.638%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)42.826.869.5+16.075%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
L
20-49
20
49
-29
H10/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
20-58
20
58
-38
A11/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
25-45
25
45
-20
H12/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
14-44
14
44
-30
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
19-33
19
33
-14
H14/04
Higher League
74.1Avg total
27.1Scored
47.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.146.975.0-18.817%-
Last 30 at home (14)30.144.074.1-13.929%-
Last 30 away (16)26.249.475.7-23.26%-
Last 10 (10)27.147.074.1-19.910%-
Last 5 (5)31.444.475.8-13.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)27.647.975.5-20.214%-
vs Similar (2)34.033.567.5+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tobol Kostanay 2their own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tobol Kostanay 2: 64.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.9 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.4 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.615.4
40.0%
49.5%30.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.68.1
27.5%
28.5%24.4
🏀 Free throws13.98.9
63.9%
63.9%8.9
They take 68.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pavlodartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pavlodar: 65.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀10%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers16.8 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws6.6 pts a game · 10% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.821.2
39.4%
49.5%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.25.6
22.2%
28.5%16.8
🏀 Free throws15.06.6
44.0%
63.9%6.6
They take 79.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 7/5 games with a box score before 15 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tobol Kostanay 2
LLLLLLLWLL
Pavlodar
LLLLLLLLLL
#12
League position
#14
-19.2
Net rating
-20.7
83.0
Offensive rating
77.3
102.3
Defensive rating
97.9
40.6%
Effective FG%
37.5%
46.2%
Opp. effective FG%
47.4%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.19
27.5%
3-point %
22.2%
57.6%
Assist %
35.1%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
0%

Profile

Offence83.0 · 77.3Defence102.3 · 97.9Shooting40.6% · 37.5%3-point %27.5% · 22.2%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.20 · 0.19Form (last 10/10)10% · 0%
■ Tobol Kostanay 2   ■ Pavlodar
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Tobol Kostanay 2 wins
1
Pavlodar wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/04/26AKaraganda65-83
10/03/26HAktobe61-110
09/03/26AAktobe46-95
05/03/26HCHAMP1ON86-92
04/03/26ABC Almaty 263-85
03/03/26HCHAMP1ON51-85
02/03/26ABC Almaty 245-70
21/01/26HArlans88-56
20/01/26AAiRom68-72 OT
19/01/26HArlans66-93
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/04/26HChelSU Kostanay44-64
29/03/26HCHAMP1ON69-75
28/03/26ABC Almaty 269-94
27/03/26HCHAMP1ON78-92
26/03/26ABC Almaty 264-92
14/02/26AKaraganda36-84
13/02/26AAiRom61-98
12/02/26HArlans57-86
11/02/26AAiRom55-101
10/02/26HArlans55-93

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tobol Kostanay 2
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL16%
HomeLWLLL27%
AwayLLLLL7%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251114
Win %16%27%7%
Points / game68.269.767.1
Allowed / game83.183.482.9
Point differential-14.9-13.6-15.9
Avg total151.4153.1150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%27%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (4)-0% (4)
Overtime %8%0%14%
Pavlodar
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL8%
HomeLLLLL15%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251312
Win %8%15%0%
Points / game55.657.253.8
Allowed / game88.583.893.5
Point differential-32.9-26.6-39.7
Avg total144.1141.1147.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+4%8%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan26260100%88.960.0+28.9
2 Shymkent2724389%95.168.9+26.1
3 Aktobe2823582%83.067.5+15.6
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2520580%85.760.4+25.4
5 BC Almaty 22517868%83.273.0+10.2
6 Atyrau 22617965%77.870.2+7.7
7 ChelSU Kostanay26141254%75.778.8-3.1
8 CHAMP1ON25131252%74.573.7+0.8
9 Karaganda26121446%80.178.8+1.3
10 Tigers-KazATU25101540%67.675.6-8.0
11 Arlans2882029%73.683.0-9.4
12 AiRom2852318%63.282.5-19.3
13 Tobol Kostanay 22542116%68.283.1-14.9
14 Pavlodar252238%55.688.5-32.9
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2271264%55.783.7-28.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Tobol Kostanay 22921171380
Pavlodar241981667
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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