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Shymkent vs ChelSU Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 26 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 07:00
Final 115-64
29-18 27-15 35-15 24-16
Position#2
Record25-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game94.7
Allowed / game68.8
vs
Position#8
Record15-13
FormLWLWL
Points / game75.1
Allowed / game78.4
KazakhstanHigher LeagueHigher League - Quarter-finals· Olympic Center
Other2025-26
Meetings · Shymkent v ChelSU Kostanay
26 Apr 2026
SHYM115
CHEL64
09 Apr 2025
SHYM96
CHEL45
03 Mar 2025
SHYM65
CHEL48
28 Jan 2025
SHYM88
CHEL76
12 Dec 2024
SHYM108
CHEL65
20 Oct 2024
SHYM91
CHEL86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Shymkent winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
ChelSU Kostanay winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ShymkentKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aktobe
#4
W
66-58
66
58
+8
A12/02
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
70-77
70
77
-7
H14/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
93-55
93
55
+38
H09/03
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
102-74
102
74
+28
A10/03
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
96-46
96
46
+50
H11/03
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
103-67
103
67
+36
A12/03
Higher League
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
105-73
105
73
+32
A13/04
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
W
89-68
89
68
+21
H14/04
Higher League
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
87-86
87
86
+1
A15/04
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
W
85-64
85
64
+21
H16/04
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-9
10-10
17-28
20-11
20-15
20-18
20-22
10-22
22-9
29-20
24-7
18-19
30-17
35-22
20-16
17-19
29-14
21-16
24-11
22-5
26-13
33-14
24-21
20-19
24-18
30-18
26-12
25-25
21-16
28-6
23-26
17-20
23-22
26-20
19-27
19-17
19-15
21-20
26-14
19-15
156.4Avg total
89.6Scored
66.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)94.768.8163.5+26.089%
Season at home (15)93.166.9160.1+26.280%
Season away (13)96.570.8167.4+25.7100%
Last 10 (10)89.666.8156.4+22.890%
Last 5 (5)93.871.6165.4+22.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)82.875.5158.2+7.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)93.764.2157.9+29.696%
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChelSU KostanayKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
68-85
68
85
-17
A02/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
99-103
99
103
-4
H03/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
93-88
93
88
+5
A04/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
78-105
78
105
-27
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
56-85
56
85
-29
A11/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
76-86
76
86
-10
H12/03
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
64-44
64
44
+20
A14/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
70-85
70
85
-15
H15/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
74-70
74
70
+4
A16/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
61-78
61
78
-17
H17/04
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-24
23-16
16-22
14-23
23-24
30-25
27-28
19-26
24-27
22-16
16-26
31-19
14-21
17-38
17-30
30-16
13-20
18-21
8-22
17-22
19-20
17-18
20-21
20-27
12-8
21-11
12-9
19-16
20-24
27-26
7-19
16-16
24-14
7-20
17-14
26-22
17-19
9-14
19-25
16-20
156.8Avg total
73.9Scored
82.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)75.178.4153.5-3.454%
Season at home (15)79.781.4161.1-1.753%
Season away (13)69.875.0144.8-5.254%
Last 10 (10)73.982.9156.8-9.030%
Last 5 (5)69.072.6141.6-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)71.588.8160.2-17.212%
vs Similar (6)77.077.5154.5-0.583%
vs Weaker (8)76.561.6138.1+14.9100%
This opponent (Shymkent) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +8.5+8.5Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: +8.9+8.9Q2: -1.4-1.4Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: -5.7-5.7Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: +0.1+0.1
ShymkentChelSU Kostanay
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ShymkentLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aktobe
#4
W
29-19
29
19
+10
A12/02
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H14/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
51-29
51
29
+22
H09/03
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
65-39
65
39
+26
A10/03
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H11/03
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
59-27
59
27
+32
A12/03
Higher League
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
54-36
54
36
+18
A13/04
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
W
49-22
49
22
+27
H14/04
Higher League
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A15/04
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H16/04
Higher League
79.8Avg total
48.6Scored
31.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)51.433.284.6+18.293%-
Last 30 at home (16)50.632.983.5+17.688%-
Last 30 away (13)52.433.585.9+18.8100%-
Last 10 (10)48.631.279.8+17.4100%-
Last 5 (5)50.232.482.6+17.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)45.839.084.8+6.850%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)52.332.384.6+20.0100%-
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChelSU KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A02/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H03/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A04/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
31-59
31
59
-28
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A11/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H12/03
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
33-19
33
19
+14
A14/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H15/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A16/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
26-33
26
33
-7
H17/04
Higher League
77.8Avg total
37.2Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.440.877.2-4.543%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.242.481.6-3.250%-
Last 30 away (14)33.139.072.1-5.936%-
Last 10 (10)37.240.677.8-3.430%-
Last 5 (5)34.634.869.4-0.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)34.547.882.2-13.219%-
vs Similar (6)37.237.875.0-0.750%-
vs Weaker (8)39.529.268.8+10.288%-
This opponent (Shymkent) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Shymkenttheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Shymkent: 94.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.7 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.625.9
59.3%
49.5%51.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.7
36.0%
28.5%29.1
🏀 Free throws26.313.1
50.0%
63.9%13.1
They take 70.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
ChelSU Kostanaytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

ChelSU Kostanay: 73.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.319.6
49.9%
49.5%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.07.4
27.4%
28.5%22.2
🏀 Free throws17.612.5
71.0%
63.9%12.5
They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 7/10 games with a box score before 26 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Shymkent
WWWWWWWWLW
ChelSU Kostanay
LWLWLLLWLL
#2
League position
#8
+37.3
Net rating
-11.6
123.2
Offensive rating
95.1
85.9
Defensive rating
106.7
57.3%
Effective FG%
46.3%
44.9%
Opp. effective FG%
48.4%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.27
36.0%
3-point %
27.4%
68.7%
Assist %
48.9%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence123.2 · 95.1Defence85.9 · 106.7Shooting57.3% · 46.3%3-point %36.0% · 27.4%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.37 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)90% · 30%
■ Shymkent   ■ ChelSU Kostanay
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
10
Shymkent wins
0
ChelSU Kostanay wins
Shymkentlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/04/26HAtyrau 285-64
15/04/26AKaspiy Aktau 287-86
14/04/26HAtyrau 289-68
13/04/26AKaspiy Aktau 2105-73
12/03/26AArlans103-67
11/03/26HAiRom96-46
10/03/26AArlans102-74
09/03/26HAiRom93-55
14/02/26HAktobe70-77
12/02/26AAktobe66-58
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/04/26HKaraganda61-78
16/04/26APavlodar74-70
15/04/26HKaraganda70-85
14/04/26APavlodar64-44
12/03/26HAktobe76-86
11/03/26AAktobe56-85
05/03/26HBC Almaty 278-105
04/03/26ACHAMP1ON93-88
03/03/26HBC Almaty 299-103
02/03/26ACHAMP1ON68-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Shymkent
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW89%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281513
Win %89%80%100%
Points / game94.793.196.5
Allowed / game68.866.970.8
Point differential+26.0+26.2+25.7
Avg total163.5160.1167.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+79%80%77%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
ChelSU Kostanay
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL54%
HomeLLLLL53%
AwayLWLWW54%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281513
Win %54%53%54%
Points / game75.179.769.8
Allowed / game78.481.475.0
Point differential-3.4-1.7-5.2
Avg total153.5161.1144.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%27%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won88% (8)75% (4)100% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan28280100%87.459.6+27.8
2 Shymkent2825389%94.768.8+26.0
3 Bars Petropavlovsk2823582%85.861.5+24.3
4 Aktobe2823582%83.067.5+15.6
5 BC Almaty 228181064%82.973.8+9.1
6 Atyrau 228171161%76.570.6+5.9
7 ChelSU Kostanay28151354%75.178.4-3.4
8 CHAMP1ON28141450%74.574.7-0.2
9 Karaganda28131546%80.278.5+1.7
10 Tigers-KazATU28111739%68.576.4-7.9
11 Arlans2882029%73.683.0-9.4
12 Tobol Kostanay 22872125%69.781.6-11.9
13 AiRom2852318%63.282.5-19.3
14 Pavlodar282267%56.587.2-30.8
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2281274%55.783.1-27.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Shymkent29273524115
ChelSU Kostanay1815151664
← all games of the day
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