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Aktobe vs ChelSU Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 29 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 09:00
Final 83-80
19-19 26-21 20-17 18-23
Position#4
Record23-7
FormWWWLL
Points / game81.6
Allowed / game67.7
Aktobe 🏆
Kazakhstan
vs
Position#8
Record15-15
FormLWLLL
Points / game74.7
Allowed / game80.0
KazakhstanHigher LeagueHigher League - Semi-finals
Other2025-26
Meetings · Aktobe v ChelSU Kostanay
29 Apr 2026
AKTO83
CHEL80
11 Mar 2026
AKTO85
CHEL56
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aktobe winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
ChelSU Kostanay winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AktobeKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
95-46
95
46
+49
H09/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
110-61
110
61
+49
A10/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
85-56
85
56
+29
H11/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
86-76
86
76
+10
A12/03
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
L
75-99
75
99
-24
H01/04
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
W
96-79
96
79
+17
A02/04
Higher League
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
71-59
71
59
+12
H03/04
Higher League
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
71-68
71
68
+3
A04/04
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
L
65-74
65
74
-9
H26/04
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
L
59-68
59
68
-9
A27/04
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-8
19-13
23-8
21-17
27-15
23-22
32-6
28-18
20-13
21-18
22-8
22-17
20-19
18-17
21-20
27-20
23-24
19-26
16-31
17-18
31-23
28-11
17-27
20-18
20-14
19-7
17-24
15-14
19-14
21-14
16-20
15-20
13-22
17-14
19-21
16-17
10-20
23-15
12-10
14-23
149.9Avg total
81.3Scored
68.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)81.667.7149.3+13.977%
Season at home (15)81.967.0148.9+14.973%
Season away (15)81.368.4149.7+12.980%
Last 10 (10)81.368.6149.9+12.770%
Last 5 (5)72.469.6142.0+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)61.766.8128.5-5.233%
vs Similar (2)93.086.5179.5+6.5100%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)86.066.2152.3+19.886%
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChelSU KostanayKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
93-88
93
88
+5
A04/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
78-105
78
105
-27
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
56-85
56
85
-29
A11/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
76-86
76
86
-10
H12/03
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
64-44
64
44
+20
A14/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
70-85
70
85
-15
H15/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
74-70
74
70
+4
A16/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
61-78
61
78
-17
H17/04
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
64-115
64
115
-51
A26/04
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
75-88
75
88
-13
H27/04
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-27
22-16
16-26
31-19
14-21
17-38
17-30
30-16
13-20
18-21
8-22
17-22
19-20
17-18
20-21
20-27
12-8
21-11
12-9
19-16
20-24
27-26
7-19
16-16
24-14
7-20
17-14
26-22
17-19
9-14
19-25
16-20
18-29
15-27
15-35
16-24
22-28
9-20
22-17
22-23
155.5Avg total
71.1Scored
84.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)74.780.0154.7-5.350%
Season at home (16)79.481.8161.2-2.450%
Season away (14)69.477.9147.2-8.550%
Last 10 (10)71.184.4155.5-13.330%
Last 5 (5)68.887.2156.0-18.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)72.990.1163.0-17.112%
vs Similar (6)77.077.5154.5-0.583%
vs Weaker (8)76.561.6138.1+14.9100%
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.3+4.3Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: +5.1+5.1Q2: -4.9-4.9Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -6.5-6.5Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: +0.8+0.8
AktobeChelSU Kostanay
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AktobeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
51-21
51
21
+30
H09/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
50-37
50
37
+13
A10/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H11/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A12/03
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
L
42-50
42
50
-8
H01/04
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
W
59-34
59
34
+25
A02/04
Higher League
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H03/04
Higher League
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
40-28
40
28
+12
A04/04
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H26/04
Higher League
Atyrau 2
#6
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A27/04
Higher League
75.2Avg total
42.3Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.932.173.1+8.867%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.130.171.3+11.073%-
Last 30 away (15)40.734.174.9+6.660%-
Last 10 (10)42.332.975.2+9.470%-
Last 5 (5)40.230.871.0+9.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)28.534.563.0-6.017%-
vs Similar (2)42.541.083.5+1.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)44.230.774.9+13.582%-
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChelSU KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A04/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
31-59
31
59
-28
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A11/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H12/03
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
33-19
33
19
+14
A14/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H15/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A16/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
26-33
26
33
-7
H17/04
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A26/04
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
31-48
31
48
-17
H27/04
Higher League
76.6Avg total
34.5Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.640.977.5-4.343%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.242.281.4-3.150%-
Last 30 away (14)33.639.473.0-5.736%-
Last 10 (10)34.542.176.6-7.620%-
Last 5 (5)33.644.277.8-10.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)34.947.982.8-12.919%-
vs Similar (6)37.237.875.0-0.750%-
vs Weaker (8)39.529.268.8+10.288%-
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aktobetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aktobe: 78.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.9 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.3 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.422.4
48.3%
49.5%44.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.47.4
28.2%
28.5%22.3
🏀 Free throws15.810.9
69.0%
63.9%10.9
They take 72.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
ChelSU Kostanaytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

ChelSU Kostanay: 71.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.220.3
48.1%
49.5%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.86.7
25.0%
28.5%20.1
🏀 Free throws14.810.4
70.3%
63.9%10.4
They take 69.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/10 games with a box score before 29 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aktobe
LLWWWLWWWW
ChelSU Kostanay
LLLWLWLLLW
#4
League position
#8
+11.4
Net rating
-16.9
102.5
Offensive rating
90.6
91.1
Defensive rating
107.5
46.1%
Effective FG%
44.0%
45.0%
Opp. effective FG%
49.5%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.21
28.2%
3-point %
25.0%
62.8%
Assist %
56.3%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence102.5 · 90.6Defence91.1 · 107.5Shooting46.1% · 44.0%3-point %28.2% · 25.0%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.22 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)70% · 30%
■ Aktobe   ■ ChelSU Kostanay
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Aktobe wins
0
ChelSU Kostanay wins
DateGameScore
12/03/26ChelSU Kostanay v Aktobe76-86
11/03/26Aktobe v ChelSU Kostanay85-56
Aktobelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/04/26AAtyrau 259-68
26/04/26HAtyrau 265-74
04/04/26AKaspiy Aktau 271-68
03/04/26HKaspiy Aktau 271-59
02/04/26AAtyrau 296-79
01/04/26HAtyrau 275-99
12/03/26AChelSU Kostanay86-76
11/03/26HChelSU Kostanay85-56
10/03/26ATobol Kostanay 2110-61
09/03/26HTobol Kostanay 295-46
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/04/26HShymkent75-88
26/04/26AShymkent64-115
17/04/26HKaraganda61-78
16/04/26APavlodar74-70
15/04/26HKaraganda70-85
14/04/26APavlodar64-44
12/03/26HAktobe76-86
11/03/26AAktobe56-85
05/03/26HBC Almaty 278-105
04/03/26ACHAMP1ON93-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aktobe
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL77%
HomeWWLWL73%
AwayWWWWL80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %77%73%80%
Points / game81.681.981.3
Allowed / game67.767.068.4
Point differential+13.9+14.9+12.9
Avg total149.3148.9149.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%53%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (5)100% (1)100% (4)
Overtime %3%0%7%
ChelSU Kostanay
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL50%
HomeLLLLL50%
AwayWLWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301614
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game74.779.469.4
Allowed / game80.081.877.9
Point differential-5.3-2.4-8.5
Avg total154.7161.2147.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%25%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won88% (8)75% (4)100% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan30300100%87.459.0+28.4
2 Shymkent3027390%95.268.8+26.4
3 Bars Petropavlovsk3025583%86.262.1+24.1
4 Aktobe3023777%81.667.7+13.9
5 Atyrau 230191163%76.170.0+6.1
6 BC Almaty 231191261%83.074.5+8.6
7 ChelSU Kostanay30151550%74.780.0-5.3
8 Karaganda28131546%80.278.5+1.7
9 CHAMP1ON31141745%72.576.8-4.3
10 Tigers-KazATU28111739%68.576.4-7.9
11 Arlans2882029%73.683.0-9.4
12 Tobol Kostanay 22872125%69.781.6-11.9
13 AiRom2852318%63.282.5-19.3
14 Pavlodar282267%56.587.2-30.8
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2281274%55.783.1-27.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aktobe1926201883
ChelSU Kostanay1921172380
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