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Pesaro vs Forli Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 14 Apr 2027
Tip-off: 18:30
Scheduled
Position#10
Record5-4
FormWLLLL
Points / game81.0
Allowed / game79.9
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
6.0/10
Above normal
Position#9
Record5-4
FormLLWLW
Points / game82.3
Allowed / game77.6
ItalySerie A2Round 36· Vitrifrigo Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Pesaro v Forli
14 Apr 2027
PES v FORL
upcoming
19 Apr 2026
PES85
FORL73
15 Mar 2025
PES84
FORL71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pesaro win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Forli win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PesaroItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPesaro
Date
Competition
Rimini
#8
L
78-91
78
91
-13
68avg 73
H19/05
Serie A2
Cento
#18
W
96-81
96
81
+15
92avg 73
A27/09
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
87-84
87
84
+3
32avg 73
H04/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
W
83-77
83
77
+6
87avg 73
H11/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
86-76
86
76
+10
67avg 73
A18/10
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
76-68
76
68
+8
76avg 73
H21/10
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
L
71-73
71
73
-2
61avg 73
H25/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
70-79
70
79
-9
60avg 73
A01/11
Serie A2
Mestre
#13
L
73-85
73
85
-12
no box
H07/11
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
L
87-96 OT
87
96
-9
no box
A11/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-20
11-27
22-21
27-23
31-14
25-25
20-19
20-23
24-23
21-18
15-26
27-17
23-24
23-15
16-21
21-17
13-15
27-31
22-17
24-13
22-21
20-18
13-15
21-14
15-20
21-20
18-19
17-14
19-21
18-27
13-16
20-15
22-22
18-30
19-12
14-21
25-21
15-22
19-19
20-17
161.7Avg total
80.7Scored
81.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)81.079.9160.9+1.156%
Season at home (5)78.077.4155.4+0.660%
Season away (4)84.883.0167.8+1.850%
Last 10 (10)80.781.0161.7-0.350%
Last 5 (5)75.480.2155.6-4.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)70.079.0149.0-9.00%
vs Similar ◀ (20)82.586.2168.7-3.745%
vs Weaker (9)85.676.4162.0+9.1100%
This opponent (Forli) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ForliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormForli
Date
Competition
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
65-96
65
96
-31
55avg 71
H26/04
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
85-68
85
68
+17
78avg 71
A26/09
Serie A2
Cento
#18
W
80-73
80
73
+7
70avg 71
H03/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
81-94
81
94
-13
66avg 71
A11/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
W
93-71
93
71
+22
93avg 71
H18/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
L
74-79
74
79
-5
66avg 71
A21/10
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
87-92
87
92
-5
74avg 71
H25/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
86-71
86
71
+15
no box
H01/11
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
74-80
74
80
-6
no box
A07/11
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
W
81-70
81
70
+11
no box
H11/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-21
20-30
9-22
21-23
27-15
21-8
16-23
21-22
31-18
16-19
18-19
15-17
19-25
21-24
23-24
18-21
25-11
30-33
13-15
25-12
20-20
20-23
21-17
13-19
19-31
22-26
23-23
23-12
28-24
15-14
19-14
24-19
20-23
9-15
23-29
22-13
21-24
15-21
21-12
24-13
160.0Avg total
80.6Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)82.377.6159.9+4.856%
Season at home (5)85.475.4160.8+10.080%
Season away (4)78.580.2158.8-1.825%
Last 10 (10)80.679.4160.0+1.250%
Last 5 (5)80.478.4158.8+2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)74.984.7159.6-9.825%
vs Similar ◀ (10)82.980.3163.2+2.650%
vs Weaker (4)81.272.8154.0+8.575%
This opponent (Pesaro) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: +3.7+3.7Q4: +3.5+3.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: +3.7+3.7Q4: +3.5+3.5
PesaroForli
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PesaroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rimini
#8
L
29-47
29
47
-18
H19/05
Serie A2
Cento
#18
W
56-39
56
39
+17
A27/09
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H04/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H11/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A18/10
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H21/10
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H25/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A01/11
Serie A2
Mestre
#13
L
40-52
40
52
-12
H07/11
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A11/11
Serie A2
84.5Avg total
41.1Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.341.884.0+0.553%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.440.883.2+1.667%-
Last 30 away (15)42.142.784.9-0.640%-
Last 10 (10)41.143.484.5-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)39.044.483.4-5.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)37.048.085.0-11.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)41.643.084.7-1.440%-
vs Weaker (9)44.238.282.4+6.089%-
This opponent (Forli) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ForliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
35-51
35
51
-16
H26/04
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
48-23
48
23
+25
A26/09
Serie A2
Cento
#18
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H03/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A11/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
W
55-44
55
44
+11
H18/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A21/10
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
41-57
41
57
-16
H25/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H01/11
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A07/11
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H11/11
Serie A2
83.9Avg total
41.4Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.442.883.2-2.427%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.943.285.1-1.333%-
Last 30 away (15)38.942.581.4-3.520%-
Last 10 (10)41.442.583.9-1.140%-
Last 5 (5)37.844.282.0-6.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)38.344.082.3-5.712%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)42.144.086.1-1.930%-
vs Weaker (4)44.535.279.8+9.275%-
This opponent (Pesaro) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pesarotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pesaro: 75.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.517.5
50.7%
51.2%35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.78.5
41.1%
34.5%25.5
🏀 Free throws19.114.8
77.5%
71.0%14.8
They take 55.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Forlitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Forli: 75.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.118.7
53.3%
51.2%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.77.6
35.0%
34.5%22.8
🏀 Free throws22.914.9
65.1%
71.0%14.9
They take 56.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Apr 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pesaro
LLLLWWWWWL
Forli
WLWLLWLWWL
#10
League position
#9
-1.4
Net rating
-1.3
105.1
Offensive rating
98.1
106.5
Defensive rating
99.4
54.8%
Effective FG%
53.0%
53.7%
Opp. effective FG%
54.7%
10.0%
Turnover %
13.6%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.40
41.1%
3-point %
35.0%
53.1%
Assist %
51.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence105.1 · 98.1Defence106.5 · 99.4Shooting54.8% · 53.0%3-point %41.1% · 35.0%Ball care10.0% · 13.6%Free throws0.35 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Pesaro   ■ Forli
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Pesaro wins
1
Forli wins
DateGameScore
19/04/26Pesaro v Forli85-73
26/11/25Forli v Pesaro88-91
15/03/25Pesaro v Forli84-71
16/10/24Forli v Pesaro71-50
Pesarolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26ASassari87-96 OT
07/11/26HMestre73-85
01/11/26AAvellino Basket70-79
25/10/26HBasket Torino71-73
21/10/26HCividale76-68
18/10/26ARuvo Di Puglia86-76
11/10/26HCaserta83-77
04/10/26HJuVi Cremona87-84
27/09/26ACento96-81
19/05/26HRimini78-91
Forlilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HRimini81-70
07/11/26ABrindisi74-80
01/11/26HRuvo Di Puglia86-71
25/10/26HLibertas Livorno87-92
21/10/26AVigevano74-79
18/10/26HSebastiani Rieti93-71
11/10/26AAvellino Basket81-94
03/10/26HCento80-73
26/09/26ACividale85-68
26/04/26HFortitudo Bologna65-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pesaro
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL56%
HomeWWWLL60%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %56%60%50%
Points / game81.078.084.8
Allowed / game79.977.483.0
Point differential+1.1+0.6+1.8
Avg total160.9155.4167.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %11%0%25%
Forli
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW56%
HomeWWLWW80%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %56%80%25%
Points / game82.385.478.5
Allowed / game77.675.480.2
Point differential+4.8+10.0-1.8
Avg total159.9160.8158.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%60%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Libertas Livorno98189%81.269.7+11.6
2 Avellino Basket98189%82.274.7+7.6
3 Fortitudo Bologna97278%79.474.3+5.1
4 Sebastiani Rieti97278%74.872.1+2.7
5 Rimini96367%80.471.8+8.7
6 Brindisi96367%77.473.9+3.6
7 Basket Torino85362%72.872.2+0.5
8 Pistoia106460%77.669.1+8.5
9 Forli95456%82.377.6+4.8
10 Pesaro95456%81.079.9+1.1
11 Sassari95456%77.276.4+0.8
12 Cividale95456%71.874.1-2.3
13 Mestre94544%75.076.4-1.4
14 Vigevano93633%76.381.8-5.4
15 Caserta82625%78.182.6-4.5
16 JuVi Cremona92722%75.377.9-2.6
17 Ruvo Di Puglia92722%74.481.7-7.2
18 Cento92722%72.882.2-9.4
19 Montecatini91811%68.182.3-14.2
20 Urania Milano101910%74.682.7-8.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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