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Poland vs Germany Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 30 Aug 2026
Tip-off: 12:45
Final 94-96 (OT)
15-28 16-13 27-29 25-13 11-13
Position#7
Record7-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game96.0
Allowed / game80.3
vs
Germany 🏆
Position#8
Record6-1
FormLWWWW
Points / game93.3
Allowed / game80.4
EuropeWorld CupRound 2· Ergo Arena
Other2027
Meetings · Poland v Germany
30 Aug 2026
POLA94
GERM96
28 Nov 2021
POLA69
GERM72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Poland winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Germany winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPoland
Date
Competition
Belgium
#16
L
69-70
69
70
-1
64avg 71
H04/09
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
80-72
80
72
+8
70avg 71
H07/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
77-91
77
91
-14
76avg 71
A09/09
EuroBasket
Austria
#54
W
90-78
90
78
+12
no box
H28/11
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
W
85-83
85
83
+2
no box
A01/12
World Cup
Latvia
#40
W
84-82
84
82
+2
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Latvia
#40
W
92-72
92
72
+20
no box
H01/03
World Cup
Austria
#54
W
123-77
123
77
+46
no box
A03/07
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
W
92-84
92
84
+8
no box
H06/07
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
106-86
106
86
+20
no box
A27/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-16
16-23
25-19
11-12
14-23
26-21
22-17
18-11
19-19
13-27
18-19
27-26
22-18
21-21
26-21
21-18
22-28
15-25
21-17
27-13
21-23
21-25
24-14
18-20
23-16
31-20
16-18
22-18
24-16
29-12
28-29
42-20
18-16
28-28
27-21
19-19
23-15
32-27
25-18
26-26
169.3Avg total
89.8Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)96.080.3176.3+15.7100%
Season at home (3)91.378.0169.3+13.3100%
Season away (4)99.582.0181.5+17.5100%
Last 10 (10)89.879.5169.3+10.380%
Last 5 (5)99.480.2179.6+19.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)74.286.9161.1-12.629%
vs Similar ◀ (6)82.872.8155.7+10.0100%
vs Weaker (10)90.077.6167.6+12.490%
This opponent (Germany) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGermany
Date
Competition
Slovenia
#8
W
99-91
99
91
+8
92avg 94
H10/09
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
98-86
98
86
+12
93avg 94
H12/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
W
88-83
88
83
+5
91avg 94
A14/09
EuroBasket
Israel
#67
W
89-69
89
69
+20
no box
H28/11
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
83-64
83
64
+19
no box
A01/12
World Cup
Croatia
#5
L
88-93
88
93
-5
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Croatia
#5
W
91-89 OT
91
89
+2
no box
H01/03
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
92-86
92
86
+6
no box
A03/07
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
111-79
111
79
+32
no box
H06/07
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
W
99-83
99
83
+16
no box
H27/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-32
24-19
25-23
29-17
30-26
31-21
20-26
17-13
24-22
16-24
26-21
22-16
26-22
24-9
19-22
20-16
20-17
22-22
27-9
14-16
26-20
24-26
22-29
16-18
22-24
19-26
21-17
15-10
23-15
22-22
31-18
16-31
22-21
34-10
30-25
25-23
38-31
26-19
18-16
17-17
176.1Avg total
93.8Scored
82.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)93.380.4173.7+12.986%
Season at home (4)97.580.0177.5+17.5100%
Season away (3)87.781.0168.7+6.767%
Last 10 (10)93.882.3176.1+11.590%
Last 5 (5)96.286.0182.2+10.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)83.685.2168.8-1.660%
vs Similar ◀ (2)82.078.0160.0+4.0100%
vs Weaker (23)94.074.2168.2+19.891%
This opponent (Poland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: +4.4+4.4Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: +1.4+1.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: +4.4+4.4Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: +1.4+1.4
PolandGermany
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PolandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Belgium
#16
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H04/09
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H07/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A09/09
EuroBasket
Austria
#54
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H28/11
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
L
37-53
37
53
-16
A01/12
World Cup
Latvia
#40
L
42-48
42
48
-6
A27/02
World Cup
Latvia
#40
W
54-36
54
36
+18
H01/03
World Cup
Austria
#54
W
53-28
53
28
+25
A03/07
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H06/07
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
55-42
55
42
+13
A27/08
World Cup
85.4Avg total
43.5Scored
41.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.540.379.8-0.740%-
Last 30 at home (13)39.337.877.1+1.554%-
Last 30 away (17)39.742.281.9-2.529%-
Last 10 (10)43.541.985.4+1.650%-
Last 5 (5)50.039.689.6+10.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)35.941.076.9-5.121%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)41.338.880.2+2.550%-
vs Weaker (10)43.540.183.6+3.460%-
This opponent (Germany) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GermanyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Slovenia
#8
L
45-51
45
51
-6
H10/09
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
61-47
61
47
+14
H12/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A14/09
EuroBasket
Israel
#67
W
50-31
50
31
+19
H28/11
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A01/12
World Cup
Croatia
#5
W
50-46
50
46
+4
A27/02
World Cup
Croatia
#5
L
41-50
41
50
-9
H01/03
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
45-37
45
37
+8
A03/07
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
56-31
56
31
+25
H06/07
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
W
64-50
64
50
+14
H27/08
World Cup
92.2Avg total
49.4Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.939.084.9+6.970%-
Last 30 at home (19)46.638.485.0+8.368%-
Last 30 away (11)44.640.184.7+4.573%-
Last 10 (10)49.442.892.2+6.670%-
Last 5 (5)51.242.894.0+8.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)40.042.682.6-2.640%-
vs Similar ◀ (2)41.540.582.0+1.050%-
vs Weaker (23)47.638.185.7+9.578%-
This opponent (Poland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Polandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Poland: 75.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀25%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 25% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.216.0
53.0%
-32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.68.3
32.4%
-24.9
🏀 Free throws25.019.0
76.0%
-19.0
They take 55.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Germanytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Germany: 97.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.321.5
60.9%
-43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.512.3
39.0%
-36.9
🏀 Free throws21.817.5
80.3%
-17.5
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Aug 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Poland
WWWWWWWLWL
Germany
WWWWLWWWWW
#7
League position
#8
-5.5
Net rating
+27.8
106.9
Offensive rating
129.0
112.3
Defensive rating
101.2
51.0%
Effective FG%
59.8%
53.2%
Opp. effective FG%
47.5%
19.9%
Turnover %
13.3%
29.8%
Off. rebound %
33.5%
0.45
Free-throw rate
0.33
32.4%
3-point %
39.0%
61.7%
Assist %
60.9%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)80% · 90%
■ Poland   ■ Germany
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Poland wins
5
Germany wins
DateGameScore
18/09/22Germany v Poland82-69
03/07/22Germany v Poland93-83
28/11/21Poland v Germany69-72
19/08/17Germany v Poland75-80
21/08/16Germany v Poland80-61
22/08/15Germany v Poland82-69
Polandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/08/26AIsrael106-86
06/07/26HNetherlands92-84
03/07/26AAustria123-77
01/03/26HLatvia92-72
27/02/26ALatvia84-82
01/12/25ANetherlands85-83
28/11/25HAustria90-78
09/09/25ATurkey77-91
07/09/25HBosnia & Herzegovina80-72
04/09/25HBelgium69-70
Germanylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/08/26HNetherlands99-83
06/07/26HCyprus111-79
03/07/26AIsrael92-86
01/03/26HCroatia91-89 OT
27/02/26ACroatia88-93
01/12/25ACyprus83-64
28/11/25HIsrael89-69
14/09/25ATurkey88-83
12/09/25HFinland98-86
10/09/25HSlovenia99-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Poland
World Cup 2027
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game96.091.399.5
Allowed / game80.378.082.0
Point differential+15.7+13.3+17.5
Avg total176.3169.3181.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%67%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Germany
World Cup 2027
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW86%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %86%100%67%
Points / game93.397.587.7
Allowed / game80.480.081.0
Point differential+12.9+17.5+6.7
Avg total173.7177.5168.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%75%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %14%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia880100%101.870.0+31.8
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Canada770100%101.479.6+21.9
4 Turkey770100%89.372.6+16.7
5 Poland770100%96.080.3+15.7
6 Croatia1211192%99.273.5+25.8
7 Ivory Coast87188%90.574.2+16.2
8 Cameroon87188%77.669.2+8.4
9 Argentina76186%86.667.9+18.7
10 Lebanon76186%90.072.6+17.4
11 Brazil76186%93.178.0+15.1
12 France76186%85.372.0+13.3
13 Germany76186%93.380.4+12.9
14 Mexico54180%96.683.4+13.2
15 Dominican Republic54180%91.880.2+11.6
16 New Zealand86275%97.279.8+17.5
17 South Sudan86275%82.467.8+14.6
18 Senegal86275%85.070.5+14.5
19 Mali86275%82.875.6+7.1
20 Ukraine118373%81.974.7+7.2
21 Spain75271%87.974.6+13.3
22 Uruguay75271%85.073.1+11.9
23 Japan75271%86.475.4+11.0
24 Italy75271%85.777.0+8.7
25 Serbia75271%88.780.1+8.6
26 Jordan85362%85.571.0+14.5
27 Angola85362%86.273.4+12.9
28 Guinea85362%73.466.0+7.4
29 Iran85362%74.967.8+7.1
30 Tunisia85362%71.268.8+2.5
31 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
32 Portugal74357%82.976.9+6.0
33 China74357%83.980.9+3.0
34 Georgia74357%83.781.6+2.1
35 Qatar74357%76.775.6+1.1
36 Romania148657%76.976.6+0.3
37 Sweden74357%82.983.4-0.6
38 Finland74357%78.481.0-2.6
39 Montenegro74357%69.376.4-7.1
40 Nigeria95456%79.976.9+3.0
41 Hungary116555%81.376.6+4.6
42 Switzerland168850%73.172.8+0.3
43 Philippines84450%76.976.8+0.1
44 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
45 Czech Republic63350%81.386.2-4.8
46 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
47 Egypt94544%75.973.1+2.8
48 Greece73443%72.770.0+2.7
49 Bosnia & Herzegovina73443%78.977.0+1.9
50 Estonia73443%82.381.1+1.1
51 Lithuania73443%87.086.3+0.7
52 Latvia73443%83.182.9+0.3
53 Bahamas73443%92.393.6-1.3
54 Saudi Arabia73443%77.078.9-1.9
55 Slovenia73443%82.984.7-1.9
56 Austria146843%83.084.9-1.9
57 South Korea73443%77.480.1-2.7
58 Colombia73443%83.691.4-7.9
59 Iceland73443%82.491.4-9.0
60 Netherlands125742%82.181.1+1.0
61 Chile62433%72.277.2-5.0
62 Cape Verde93633%75.681.3-5.8
63 Chinese Taipei62433%77.284.5-7.3
64 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
65 Jamaica62433%86.3102.8-16.5
66 D.R. Congo93633%68.885.7-16.9
67 Israel72529%80.683.3-2.7
68 Puerto Rico72529%87.491.7-4.3
69 Panama72529%74.487.3-12.9
70 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
71 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
72 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
73 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
74 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Syria82625%66.889.9-23.1
77 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
78 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
79 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
80 Venezuela61517%79.087.5-8.5
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium6060%71.880.0-8.2
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
87 Cuba6060%66.789.8-23.2
88 Nicaragua4040%72.095.5-23.5
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Cyprus6060%60.299.0-38.8
93 Guam6060%65.2104.5-39.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Poland151627251194
Germany281329131396
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