Rytas will host Jonava in the LKL on 15 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Rytas as the favourite at 86% to win, a figure driven by their 5-3 record, 89.6 points per game and 85.4 allowed per game, and a league position of 3. Jonava, meanwhile, sits 8th with a 3-6 record, 78.4 points per game and 82.0 allowed per game. Rytas have struggled at home, going 1-2 in their three home games and averaging 92.3 points while conceding 92.0, yet they have won three of their last five games, including a 102-82 victory over Nanterre and a 91-87 win over Jonava. Jonava have lost two of their last three road games, with a 94-82 win over Juventus but a 70-91 loss to Gargzdai. In the 10 meetings between the sides, Rytas have won every encounter, most recently defeating Jonava 91-87 on 5 November. Pythia projects a 92-79 score for the game, a total of 170.9 points, and a 45% chance that Rytas will cover the home line of -14.5; the over on the 172.0 line has a 47% probability, and there is a 3% chance of overtime. The game will likely end with Rytas maintaining their dominant edge over Jonava.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rytas win
86.0%fair 1.16
Best odds1.17
Implied78.3%
Edge+7.6pp
Jonava win
14.0%fair 7.13
Best odds7.00
Implied21.7%
Edge-7.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Rytas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 171 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (12%). The market's main line is 172.75.
Over/Under 167.5
Over 167.5
58.1%
@ 1.51-2.7pp
Under 167.5
41.9%
@ 2.37+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.51
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.26
Over/Under 172.75 · main line
Over 172.75
46.5%
@ 1.80-3.3pp
Under 172.75
53.5%
@ 1.79+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 177.5
Over 177.5
33.3%
@ 2.35-7.8pp
Under 177.5
66.7%
@ 1.57+7.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.07
Under
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Rytas total 91.5
Over 91.5
51.9%
@ 1.62-4.8pp
Under 91.5
48.1%
@ 2.20+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.60
1xBet
1.54
Under
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.12
1xBet
1.97
Rytas total 95.5 · main line
Over 95.5
36.0%
@ 2.12-7.3pp
Under 95.5
64.0%
@ 1.83+7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.04
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.51
Rytas total 99.5
Over 99.5
22.3%
@ 2.80-11.7pp
Under 99.5
77.7%
@ 1.42+11.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.62
Under
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.38
Jonava total 75
Over 75
65.4%
Under 75
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava total 79 · main line
Over 79
49.1%
@ 1.83-0.9pp
Under 79
50.9%
@ 1.83+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.72
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.72
Jonava total 83
Over 83
33.2%
Under 83
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Rytas's side (positive = Rytas win). Pythia's expected margin is +13.0; Rytas win by 1+ in 80% of simulations.
Spread Rytas -17
RYT -17
36.1%
@ 2.37-3.0pp
JON +17
63.9%
@ 1.57+3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
RYT
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
2.25
JON
Bet365
1.57
Marathon Be
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Spread Rytas -14 · main line
RYT -14
46.3%
@ 1.85-4.2pp
JON +14
53.7%
@ 1.88+4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
RYT
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.81
Marathon Be
1.81
1xBet
1.81
JON
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Spread Rytas -11
RYT -11
56.8%
@ 1.57-2.1pp
JON +11
43.2%
@ 2.25+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
RYT
Bet365
1.57
JON
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
RytasJonava
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Rytas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
RYT win
74.8%
@ 1.32+4.0pp
JON win
25.2%
@ 3.20-4.0pp
2nd half Spread Rytas -7 · main line
RYT -7
46.4%
@ 1.83-3.6pp
JON +7
53.6%
@ 1.83+3.6pp
2nd half Over/Under 85 · main line
Over
50.4%
@ 1.83+0.4pp
Under
49.6%
@ 1.83-0.4pp
Rytas 2nd half total 46 · main line
Over
47.8%
@ 1.84-1.6pp
Under
52.2%
@ 1.82+1.6pp
Jonava 2nd half total 39 · main line
Over
52.6%
@ 1.83+3.6pp
Under
47.4%
@ 1.83-3.6pp
2nd half Over/Under 83.5
Over
56.0%
@ 1.63+2.4pp
Under
44.0%
@ 1.88-2.4pp
2nd half Over/Under 86.5
Over
44.7%
@ 1.96+0.0pp
Under
55.3%
@ 1.58-0.0pp
2nd half Spread Rytas -8.5
RYT -8.5
40.4%
@ 1.92-5.5pp
JON +8.5
59.6%
@ 1.63+5.5pp
2nd half Spread Rytas -5.5
RYT -5.5
52.8%
@ 1.59-2.8pp
JON +5.5
47.2%
@ 1.99+2.8pp
2nd half Spread Rytas -9.5
RYT -9.5
36.5%
@ 2.07-6.2pp
JON +9.5
63.5%
@ 1.54+6.2pp
2nd half Spread Rytas -4.5
RYT -4.5
56.9%
@ 1.50-2.0pp
JON +4.5
43.1%
@ 2.15+2.0pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
RYT
72.2%
@ 1.35+1.7pp
Draw
3.5%
@ 19.00-1.3pp
JON
24.3%
@ 3.70-0.4pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Rytastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Rytas: 85.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.4 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
46.4
24.7
53.2%
55.6%
49.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.7
8.1
31.5%
35.3%
24.3
🏀Free throws
16.4
12.0
73.2%
70.8%
12.0
Their opponents take 72.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of those shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Jonavatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Jonava: 78.5 points a game allowed
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.8
19.9
54.1%
55.6%
39.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
23.2
6.9
29.7%
35.3%
20.7
🏀Free throws
25.5
18.0
70.6%
70.8%
18.0
Their opponents take 60.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of those shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Rytastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Rytas: 85.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.7 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.5 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
44.6
23.3
52.3%
55.6%
46.7
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.7
8.2
33.1%
35.3%
24.5
🏀Free throws
18.9
14.0
73.9%
70.8%
14.0
Their opponents take 69.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of those shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Jonavatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Jonava: 87.0 points a game allowed
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.6
22.1
57.3%
55.6%
44.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.1
8.5
35.4%
35.3%
25.6
🏀Free throws
23.2
17.2
74.2%
70.8%
17.2
Their opponents take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of those shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Rytas
WLWLWWWWLW
Jonava
LLWWLLWLLW
#2
League position
#7
+2.5
Net rating
+6.4
99.7
Offensive rating
91.3
97.2
Defensive rating
84.9
55.3%
Effective FG%
51.7%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.4%
15.0%
Turnover %
17.0%
0.44
Free-throw rate
0.35
33.9%
3-point %
30.2%
61.9%
Assist %
62.6%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
40%
Profile
■ Rytas■ Jonava
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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PythiaBasketballBETA
Rytas
Zalgiris Kaunas
Lietkabelis
Neptunas
Siauliai
Juventus
Nevezis
