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Saga vs Alvark Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 07 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 05:05
Final 90-77
23-19 18-27 18-23 31-8
Position#12
Record8-11
FormLLWLW
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game83.6
Saga 🏆
Japan
vs
Position#8
Record10-9
FormWWLLL
Points / game76.2
Allowed / game78.4
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Saga v Alvark
26 Oct 2026
SAGA88
ALVA112
07 Dec 2025
SAGA90
ALVA77
06 Dec 2025
SAGA91
ALVA64
30 Dec 2023
SAGA61
ALVA94
29 Dec 2023
SAGA68
ALVA74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Alvark winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
NeoPhoenix
#10
W
85-73
85
73
+12
87avg 71
A29/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
67-92
67
92
-25
60avg 71
H01/11
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
72-81
72
81
-9
65avg 71
H02/11
B League
Shiga
#18
L
77-83
77
83
-6
69avg 71
H05/11
B League
Osaka
#17
W
87-82
87
82
+5
85avg 71
H08/11
B League
Osaka
#17
L
81-83
81
83
-2
75avg 71
H09/11
B League
Hokkaido
#9
L
93-95
93
95
-2
84avg 71
A12/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
W
86-70
86
70
+16
84avg 71
A15/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
L
73-94
73
94
-21
65avg 71
A16/11
B League
Alvark
#8
W
91-64
91
64
+27
78avg 71
H06/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-15
25-20
27-27
13-11
21-26
18-24
15-21
13-21
27-18
17-16
18-23
10-24
20-27
17-25
24-15
16-16
17-24
17-28
26-13
27-17
20-16
19-27
23-20
19-20
25-24
27-22
17-29
24-20
22-20
19-15
20-19
25-16
18-23
11-30
18-14
26-27
20-19
15-16
25-12
31-17
162.9Avg total
81.2Scored
81.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)81.783.6165.3-1.842%
Season at home (10)81.881.1162.9+0.750%
Season away (9)81.786.3168.0-4.733%
Last 10 (10)81.281.7162.9-0.540%
Last 5 (5)84.881.2166.0+3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)71.881.6153.3-9.811%
vs Similar ◀ (14)86.983.3170.2+3.657%
vs Weaker (7)82.781.9164.6+0.957%
This opponent (Alvark) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlvark
Date
Competition
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
98-94 OT
98
94
+4
83avg 70
A29/10
B League
Chiba
#6
W
78-69
78
69
+9
72avg 70
H01/11
B League
Chiba
#6
L
69-81
69
81
-12
58avg 70
H02/11
B League
Sendai
#11
W
94-80
94
80
+14
98avg 70
H05/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
L
66-83
66
83
-17
53avg 70
A08/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
W
91-90 OT
91
90
+1
88avg 70
A09/11
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
W
67-65
67
65
+2
63avg 70
H12/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#7
L
58-79
58
79
-21
47avg 70
H15/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#7
L
66-74
66
74
-8
62avg 70
H16/11
B League
Saga
#12
L
64-91
64
91
-27
55avg 70
A06/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-23
30-28
24-25
14-13
17-13
25-29
18-17
18-10
13-22
22-17
22-23
12-19
16-22
28-19
26-18
24-21
14-19
20-24
16-23
16-17
24-28
18-18
23-19
18-18
17-15
12-20
14-18
24-12
12-29
24-13
13-18
9-19
14-12
10-24
25-24
17-14
19-20
16-15
12-25
17-31
155.7Avg total
75.1Scored
80.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)76.278.4154.6-2.253%
Season at home (11)73.974.7148.6-0.855%
Season away (8)79.483.5162.9-4.150%
Last 10 (10)75.180.6155.7-5.550%
Last 5 (5)69.279.8149.0-10.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)64.675.8140.4-11.20%
vs Similar ◀ (12)68.375.3143.7-7.042%
vs Weaker (13)85.676.5162.2+9.192%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: -3.6-3.6Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -0.5-0.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: -3.6-3.6Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -0.5-0.5
SagaAlvark
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NeoPhoenix
#10
W
45-35
45
35
+10
A29/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
39-50
39
50
-11
H01/11
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H02/11
B League
Shiga
#18
L
37-52
37
52
-15
H05/11
B League
Osaka
#17
L
34-52
34
52
-18
H08/11
B League
Osaka
#17
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H09/11
B League
Hokkaido
#9
W
52-46
52
46
+6
A12/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A15/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
L
29-53
29
53
-24
A16/11
B League
Alvark
#8
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H06/12
B League
83.0Avg total
39.5Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.543.284.7-1.743%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.743.085.7-0.347%-
Last 30 away (13)39.943.583.5-3.638%-
Last 10 (10)39.543.583.0-4.040%-
Last 5 (5)39.242.481.6-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)39.840.680.3-0.844%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)42.743.686.3-0.943%-
vs Weaker (7)41.346.087.3-4.743%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Altiri Chiba
#22
D
51-51
51
51
+0
A29/10
B League
Chiba
#6
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H01/11
B League
Chiba
#6
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H02/11
B League
Sendai
#11
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H05/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A08/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A09/11
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H12/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#7
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H15/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#7
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H16/11
B League
Saga
#12
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A06/12
B League
78.2Avg total
37.2Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.538.474.9-1.933%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.440.176.5-3.631%-
Last 30 away (14)36.636.673.1+0.036%-
Last 10 (10)37.241.078.2-3.810%-
Last 5 (5)33.238.872.0-5.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)28.437.666.0-9.220%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)34.637.972.5-3.333%-
vs Weaker (13)41.439.280.6+2.238%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.519.0
55.1%
53.1%38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.510.4
35.3%
33.7%31.2
🏀 Free throws15.411.8
76.6%
73.1%11.8
They take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 74.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.717.1
46.6%
53.1%34.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.310.1
34.5%
33.7%30.3
🏀 Free throws13.710.0
73.0%
73.1%10.0
They take 66.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
WLWLLWLLLW
Alvark
LLLWWLWLWW
#12
League position
#8
+0.5
Net rating
-7.0
111.3
Offensive rating
102.8
110.7
Defensive rating
109.8
54.1%
Effective FG%
48.9%
53.5%
Opp. effective FG%
49.3%
16.8%
Turnover %
16.6%
29.4%
Off. rebound %
29.6%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.21
35.3%
3-point %
34.5%
75.9%
Assist %
69.5%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence111.3 · 102.8Defence110.7 · 109.8Shooting54.1% · 48.9%3-point %35.3% · 34.5%Ball care16.8% · 16.6%Off. rebounds29.4% · 29.6%Free throws0.24 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Saga   ■ Alvark
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Saga wins
4
Alvark wins
DateGameScore
06/12/25Saga v Alvark91-64
27/10/24Alvark v Saga79-66
26/10/24Alvark v Saga79-74
30/12/23Saga v Alvark61-94
29/12/23Saga v Alvark68-74
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/12/25HAlvark91-64
16/11/25ASun Rockers Shibuya73-94
15/11/25ASun Rockers Shibuya86-70
12/11/25AHokkaido93-95
09/11/25HOsaka81-83
08/11/25HOsaka87-82
05/11/25HShiga77-83
02/11/25HSeaHorses Mikawa72-81
01/11/25HSeaHorses Mikawa67-92
29/10/25ANeoPhoenix85-73
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/12/25ASaga64-91
16/11/25HDiamond Dolphins66-74
15/11/25HDiamond Dolphins58-79
12/11/25HUtsunomiya Brex67-65
09/11/25ASun Rockers Shibuya91-90 OT
08/11/25ASun Rockers Shibuya66-83
05/11/25HSendai94-80
02/11/25HChiba69-81
01/11/25HChiba78-69
29/10/25AAltiri Chiba98-94 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW42%
HomeLLWLW50%
AwayLWLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19109
Win %42%50%33%
Points / game81.781.881.7
Allowed / game83.681.186.3
Point differential-1.8+0.7-4.7
Avg total165.3162.9168.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%20%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)67% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Alvark
B League 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL53%
HomeLWWLL55%
AwayWWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19118
Win %53%55%50%
Points / game76.273.979.4
Allowed / game78.474.783.5
Point differential-2.2-0.8-4.1
Avg total154.6148.6162.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+26%36%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %16%9%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nagasaki1917289%92.575.8+16.6
2 Diamond Dolphins1917289%83.770.1+13.6
3 Utsunomiya Brex1915479%84.176.2+7.9
4 Chiba1915479%82.274.8+7.4
5 Hokkaido1915479%87.183.3+3.7
6 SeaHorses Mikawa2014670%85.979.5+6.5
7 Gunma1913668%83.174.6+8.5
8 Ryukyu1913668%83.976.0+7.9
9 Hiroshima D.1911858%86.881.8+5.0
10 Shimane1911858%83.981.7+2.2
11 Alvark1910953%76.278.4-2.2
12 Osaka1991047%83.884.5-0.7
13 Sendai1991047%78.381.7-3.4
14 Shiga2091145%81.084.0-3.0
15 Saga1981142%81.783.6-1.8
16 Koshigaya Alphas1981142%72.376.4-4.1
17 Sun Rockers Shibuya1981142%76.180.2-4.1
18 NeoPhoenix1971237%79.880.6-0.7
19 Yokohama1971237%78.683.2-4.5
20 Altiri Chiba1961332%80.383.8-3.5
21 Nagoya Fighting Eagles1961332%78.582.9-4.4
22 Kyoto1961332%73.078.8-5.8
23 Toyama1951426%83.191.9-8.8
24 Ibaraki Robots1931616%73.880.8-7.0
25 Brave Thunders1931616%74.284.4-10.2
26 Akita1931616%68.983.9-15.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga2318183190
Alvark192723877
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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