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Saga vs Alvark Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 29 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 09:05
Final 68-74
14-18 13-18 15-13 26-25
Position#15
Record13-11
FormLLWWW
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game75.0
Saga
Japan
vs
Alvark 🏆
Japan
Position#2
Record20-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game65.8
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2023-24
Meetings · Saga v Alvark
26 Oct 2026
SAGA88
ALVA112
07 Dec 2025
SAGA90
ALVA77
06 Dec 2025
SAGA91
ALVA64
30 Dec 2023
SAGA61
ALVA94
29 Dec 2023
SAGA68
ALVA74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Alvark winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Osaka
#18
W
84-79
84
79
+5
76avg 69
A02/12
B League
Osaka
#18
W
79-45
79
45
+34
78avg 69
A03/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
L
81-91
81
91
-10
78avg 69
H06/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
74-72
74
72
+2
68avg 69
H09/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
81-68
81
68
+13
72avg 69
H10/12
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
95-105
95
105
-10
83avg 69
A16/12
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
77-108
77
108
-31
63avg 69
A17/12
B League
Shimane
#12
W
80-77
80
77
+3
72avg 69
H20/12
B League
Yokohama
#19
W
87-54
87
54
+33
90avg 69
H23/12
B League
Yokohama
#19
W
102-63
102
63
+39
103avg 69
H24/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-21
19-18
25-17
18-23
21-9
20-10
25-12
13-14
17-24
21-20
16-20
27-27
19-20
20-19
13-19
22-14
18-22
22-14
16-22
25-10
21-30
27-27
17-23
30-25
28-34
21-28
15-23
13-23
18-24
21-14
17-22
24-17
23-16
22-22
27-8
15-8
26-13
30-18
22-16
24-16
160.2Avg total
84.0Scored
76.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)77.275.0152.1+2.254%
Season at home (13)77.273.3150.5+3.862%
Season away (11)77.276.9154.1+0.345%
Last 10 (10)84.076.2160.2+7.870%
Last 5 (5)88.281.4169.6+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)74.891.4166.2-16.620%
vs Similar (12)74.273.9148.2+0.342%
vs Weaker (7)83.965.0148.9+18.9100%
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlvark
Date
Competition
Hiroshima D.
#6
W
88-75
88
75
+13
88avg 75
H02/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
61-76
61
76
-15
45avg 75
H03/12
B League
Gunma
#13
L
82-91
82
91
-9
68avg 75
H06/12
B League
Toyama
#24
W
89-66
89
66
+23
89avg 75
A09/12
B League
Toyama
#24
W
92-67
92
67
+25
90avg 75
A10/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
W
71-62
71
62
+9
62avg 75
A16/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
W
94-84
94
84
+10
94avg 75
A17/12
B League
Hokkaido
#20
W
81-54
81
54
+27
82avg 75
H20/12
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
W
83-68
83
68
+15
77avg 75
H23/12
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
59-82
59
82
-23
45avg 75
H24/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-12
18-26
14-11
25-26
20-19
16-15
12-20
13-22
20-24
24-19
16-25
22-23
16-17
30-23
21-11
22-15
22-17
21-16
34-21
15-13
17-16
20-14
16-10
18-22
20-15
27-20
27-34
20-15
23-15
19-11
21-11
18-17
19-19
26-18
21-14
17-17
21-21
9-25
19-19
10-17
152.5Avg total
80.0Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)80.265.8146.0+14.583%
Season at home (12)77.568.7146.2+8.867%
Season away (12)82.962.8145.8+20.1100%
Last 10 (10)80.072.5152.5+7.570%
Last 5 (5)77.670.0147.6+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)64.091.0155.0-27.00%
vs Similar (6)74.074.0148.0+0.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)80.965.8146.7+15.186%
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: +3.3+3.3Q2: +2.3+2.3Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: -0.7-0.7
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: +3.3+3.3Q2: +2.3+2.3Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: -0.7-0.7
SagaAlvark
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Osaka
#18
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A02/12
B League
Osaka
#18
W
41-19
41
19
+22
A03/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
L
38-44
38
44
-6
H06/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H09/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H10/12
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
48-57
48
57
-9
A16/12
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
49-62
49
62
-13
A17/12
B League
Shimane
#12
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H20/12
B League
Yokohama
#19
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H23/12
B League
Yokohama
#19
W
56-31
56
31
+25
H24/12
B League
83.9Avg total
43.6Scored
40.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (24)39.638.377.9+1.358%-
Last 30 at home (13)38.938.277.2+0.762%-
Last 30 away (11)40.438.478.7+2.055%-
Last 10 (10)43.640.383.9+3.360%-
Last 5 (5)47.445.292.6+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)37.851.088.8-13.20%-
vs Similar (12)38.235.573.7+2.767%-
vs Weaker (7)43.334.077.3+9.386%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hiroshima D.
#6
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H02/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H03/12
B League
Gunma
#13
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H06/12
B League
Toyama
#24
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A09/12
B League
Toyama
#24
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A10/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
W
37-30
37
30
+7
A16/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
W
47-35
47
35
+12
A17/12
B League
Hokkaido
#20
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H20/12
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H23/12
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
30-46
30
46
-16
H24/12
B League
78.1Avg total
41.9Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.534.273.7+5.370%-
Last 30 at home (13)38.635.474.0+3.262%-
Last 30 away (17)40.233.373.5+6.976%-
Last 10 (10)41.936.278.1+5.790%-
Last 5 (5)40.234.875.0+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)29.044.573.5-15.50%-
vs Similar (6)32.235.567.7-3.317%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)42.532.975.4+9.691%-
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 83.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.718.9
52.9%
50.9%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.011.5
41.1%
33.5%34.5
🏀 Free throws16.311.1
68.1%
72.0%11.1
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 79.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.020.6
52.8%
50.9%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.38.1
33.3%
33.5%24.3
🏀 Free throws19.613.7
69.9%
72.0%13.7
They take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
WWWLLWWLWW
Alvark
LWWWWWWLLW
#15
League position
#2
+11.4
Net rating
+11.4
113.6
Offensive rating
114.3
102.2
Defensive rating
102.9
56.8%
Effective FG%
51.7%
49.8%
Opp. effective FG%
51.0%
15.3%
Turnover %
15.2%
25.0%
Off. rebound %
36.5%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.31
41.1%
3-point %
33.3%
60.5%
Assist %
63.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence113.6 · 114.3Defence102.2 · 102.9Shooting56.8% · 51.7%3-point %41.1% · 33.3%Ball care15.3% · 15.2%Off. rebounds25.0% · 36.5%Free throws0.26 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Saga   ■ Alvark
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Saga wins
0
Alvark wins
No previous meetings.
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/12/23HYokohama102-63
23/12/23HYokohama87-54
20/12/23HShimane80-77
17/12/23ANeoPhoenix77-108
16/12/23ANeoPhoenix95-105
10/12/23HIbaraki Robots81-68
09/12/23HIbaraki Robots74-72
06/12/23HNagasaki81-91
03/12/23AOsaka79-45
02/12/23AOsaka84-79
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/12/23HDiamond Dolphins59-82
23/12/23HDiamond Dolphins83-68
20/12/23HHokkaido81-54
17/12/23ANagasaki94-84
16/12/23ANagasaki71-62
10/12/23AToyama92-67
09/12/23AToyama89-66
06/12/23HGunma82-91
03/12/23HHiroshima D.61-76
02/12/23HHiroshima D.88-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW54%
HomeWWWWW62%
AwayLWWLL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241311
Win %54%62%45%
Points / game77.277.277.2
Allowed / game75.073.376.9
Point differential+2.2+3.8+0.3
Avg total152.1150.5154.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%23%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)60% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %8%15%0%
Alvark
B League 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL83%
HomeLLWWL67%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %83%67%100%
Points / game80.277.582.9
Allowed / game65.868.762.8
Point differential+14.5+8.8+20.1
Avg total146.0146.2145.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%67%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alvark2420483%80.265.8+14.5
2 NeoPhoenix2420483%90.677.5+13.1
3 Utsunomiya Brex2519676%77.368.6+8.7
4 Ryukyu2418675%80.677.0+3.6
5 SeaHorses Mikawa2416867%82.276.2+6.0
6 Diamond Dolphins2416867%82.277.9+4.3
7 Brave Thunders2415962%80.276.8+3.4
8 Shimane24141058%82.877.0+5.8
9 Saga24131154%77.275.0+2.2
10 Chiba24131154%83.283.0+0.2
11 Nagasaki24131154%83.883.8-0.1
12 Nagoya Fighting Eagles24131154%74.574.7-0.2
13 Akita24121250%72.873.8-1.1
14 Osaka24121250%77.479.1-1.8
15 Hiroshima D.24111346%77.974.7+3.2
16 Sendai24111346%81.180.6+0.5
17 Sun Rockers Shibuya24111346%76.777.4-0.8
18 Gunma24111346%75.679.4-3.8
19 Yokohama24101442%74.881.2-6.5
20 Kyoto2581732%76.182.6-6.5
21 Hokkaido2461825%72.880.7-7.9
22 Shinshu2542116%73.285.0-11.8
23 Toyama2432112%73.085.0-11.9
24 Ibaraki Robots251244%73.285.4-12.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga1413152668
Alvark1818132574
← all games of the day
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