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Alvark vs Saga Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 27 Oct 2024
Tip-off: 06:05
Final 79-66
24-10 22-18 21-22 12-16
Position#4
Record7-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game72.1
Alvark 🏆
Japan
vs
Position#18
Record4-4
FormWWLLL
Points / game73.2
Allowed / game72.4
JapanB League· Yoyogi National Stadium
Other2024-25
Meetings · Alvark v Saga
08 Oct 2026
ALVA90
SAGA74
15 Feb 2026
ALVA96
SAGA83
14 Feb 2026
ALVA78
SAGA71
27 Oct 2024
ALVA79
SAGA66
26 Oct 2024
ALVA79
SAGA74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alvark winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlvark
Date
Competition
Ryukyu
#5
W
73-69
73
69
+4
72avg 76
H11/05
B League
Ryukyu
#5
L
57-58
57
58
-1
46avg 76
H13/05
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
W
75-57
75
57
+18
70avg 76
H05/10
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
W
91-72
91
72
+19
90avg 76
H06/10
B League
Yokohama
#17
W
89-80
89
80
+9
89avg 76
A12/10
B League
Yokohama
#17
W
79-68
79
68
+11
71avg 76
A13/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
W
66-59
66
59
+7
51avg 76
A19/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
L
82-90
82
90
-8
75avg 76
A20/10
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
W
81-77
81
77
+4
76avg 76
H23/10
B League
Saga
#18
W
79-74
79
74
+5
73avg 76
H26/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-9
27-26
13-17
14-17
9-12
20-20
16-16
12-10
16-15
15-7
20-18
24-17
24-19
28-18
22-14
17-21
29-23
14-19
22-16
24-22
22-22
16-11
18-21
23-14
22-14
15-14
11-12
18-19
18-22
33-24
21-20
10-24
20-24
24-13
20-19
17-21
27-21
11-15
21-17
20-21
147.6Avg total
77.2Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)80.272.1152.4+8.188%
Season at home (4)81.570.0151.5+11.5100%
Season away (4)79.074.2153.2+4.875%
Last 10 (10)77.270.4147.6+6.880%
Last 5 (5)77.473.6151.0+3.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)74.074.5148.5-0.550%
vs Similar (2)73.070.5143.5+2.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)79.871.5151.2+8.381%
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
77-81
77
81
-4
70avg 68
H05/05
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
68-80
68
80
-12
54avg 68
H06/05
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
48-70
48
70
-22
33avg 68
A05/10
B League
Kyoto
#10
W
77-71
77
71
+6
57avg 68
A06/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
W
81-64
81
64
+17
82avg 68
A12/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
W
90-81
90
81
+9
91avg 68
A13/10
B League
Akita
#14
W
70-61
70
61
+9
62avg 68
A19/10
B League
Akita
#14
L
72-74
72
74
-2
61avg 68
A20/10
B League
Chiba
#5
L
74-79
74
79
-5
60avg 68
H23/10
B League
Alvark
#4
L
74-79
74
79
-5
71avg 68
A26/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-17
18-18
24-25
17-21
7-21
23-17
23-17
15-25
9-22
11-18
13-13
15-17
24-12
27-22
12-14
14-23
13-6
21-20
22-24
25-14
27-25
22-21
22-17
19-18
20-17
23-4
12-17
15-23
16-25
17-16
14-18
25-15
18-18
16-25
23-17
17-19
21-27
15-11
17-21
21-20
147.1Avg total
73.1Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)73.272.4145.6+0.950%
Season at home (1)74.079.0153.0-5.00%
Season away (7)73.171.4144.6+1.757%
Last 10 (10)73.174.0147.1-0.940%
Last 5 (5)76.074.8150.8+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)70.980.1151.0-9.211%
vs Similar (14)76.474.5150.9+1.950%
vs Weaker (7)79.965.7145.6+14.186%
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +3.6+3.6Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: -1.2-1.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +3.6+3.6Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: -1.2-1.2
AlvarkSaga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ryukyu
#5
W
46-35
46
35
+11
H11/05
B League
Ryukyu
#5
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H13/05
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
W
31-22
31
22
+9
H05/10
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H06/10
B League
Yokohama
#17
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A12/10
B League
Yokohama
#17
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A13/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
W
37-28
37
28
+9
A19/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A20/10
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H23/10
B League
Saga
#18
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H26/10
B League
75.7Avg total
40.9Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.334.876.1+6.680%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.831.972.8+8.988%-
Last 30 away (14)41.938.079.9+3.971%-
Last 10 (10)40.934.875.7+6.190%-
Last 5 (5)41.636.077.6+5.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)44.037.081.0+7.0100%-
vs Similar (2)38.538.076.5+0.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)41.334.375.7+7.081%-
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Diamond Dolphins
#4
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H05/05
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
30-38
30
38
-8
H06/05
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
20-40
20
40
-20
A05/10
B League
Kyoto
#10
W
51-34
51
34
+17
A06/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
W
34-26
34
26
+8
A12/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A13/10
B League
Akita
#14
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A19/10
B League
Akita
#14
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A20/10
B League
Chiba
#5
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H23/10
B League
Alvark
#4
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A26/10
B League
72.8Avg total
36.6Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.238.076.1+0.247%-
Last 30 at home (10)36.238.674.8-2.440%-
Last 30 away (20)39.137.676.8+1.550%-
Last 10 (10)36.636.272.8+0.450%-
Last 5 (5)39.037.876.8+1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)36.140.776.8-4.622%-
vs Similar (14)38.838.176.9+0.643%-
vs Weaker (7)39.634.173.7+5.486%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 77.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.619.8
47.6%
51.2%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.47.0
32.7%
33.4%21.0
🏀 Free throws21.916.5
75.3%
72.7%16.5
They take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 71.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.517.4
49.0%
51.2%34.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.38.5
33.6%
33.4%25.5
🏀 Free throws17.611.6
65.9%
72.7%11.6
They take 60.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Oct 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Alvark
WWLWWWWWLW
Saga
LLLWWWWLLL
#4
League position
#18
+11.0
Net rating
-2.1
108.7
Offensive rating
101.6
97.7
Defensive rating
103.7
48.1%
Effective FG%
49.6%
48.2%
Opp. effective FG%
50.0%
15.4%
Turnover %
16.7%
33.2%
Off. rebound %
26.6%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.29
32.7%
3-point %
33.6%
68.7%
Assist %
67.2%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence108.7 · 101.6Defence97.7 · 103.7Shooting48.1% · 49.6%3-point %32.7% · 33.6%Ball care15.4% · 16.7%Off. rebounds33.2% · 26.6%Free throws0.35 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Alvark   ■ Saga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Alvark wins
0
Saga wins
DateGameScore
26/10/24Alvark v Saga79-74
30/12/23Saga v Alvark61-94
29/12/23Saga v Alvark68-74
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/10/24HSaga79-74
23/10/24HNagoya Fighting Eagles81-77
20/10/24ANeoPhoenix82-90
19/10/24ANeoPhoenix66-59
13/10/24AYokohama79-68
12/10/24AYokohama89-80
06/10/24HKoshigaya Alphas91-72
05/10/24HKoshigaya Alphas75-57
13/05/24HRyukyu57-58
11/05/24HRyukyu73-69
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/10/24AAlvark74-79
23/10/24HChiba74-79
20/10/24AAkita72-74
19/10/24AAkita70-61
13/10/24AHiroshima D.90-81
12/10/24AHiroshima D.81-64
06/10/24AKyoto77-71
05/10/24AKyoto48-70
06/05/24HDiamond Dolphins68-80
05/05/24HDiamond Dolphins77-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alvark
B League 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW88%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %88%100%75%
Points / game80.281.579.0
Allowed / game72.170.074.2
Point differential+8.1+11.5+4.8
Avg total152.4151.5153.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Saga
B League 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL50%
HomeL0%
AwayWWWLL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games817
Win %50%0%57%
Points / game73.274.073.1
Allowed / game72.479.071.4
Point differential+0.9-5.0+1.7
Avg total145.6153.0144.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%0%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Shimane98189%86.371.4+14.9
2 Chiba87188%82.069.8+12.2
3 Alvark87188%80.272.1+8.1
4 SeaHorses Mikawa86275%80.571.8+8.8
5 NeoPhoenix86275%83.876.2+7.5
6 Utsunomiya Brex86275%80.877.0+3.8
7 Ryukyu96367%87.378.1+9.2
8 Osaka85362%82.677.1+5.5
9 Nagasaki85362%69.671.2-1.6
10 Gunma95456%77.170.3+6.8
11 Sun Rockers Shibuya95456%75.269.7+5.6
12 Yokohama95456%75.378.1-2.8
13 Diamond Dolphins84450%82.080.1+1.9
14 Saga84450%73.272.4+0.9
15 Akita94544%76.076.8-0.8
16 Kyoto94544%75.178.2-3.1
17 Sendai93633%74.776.3-1.7
18 Nagoya Fighting Eagles82625%70.677.2-6.6
19 Hokkaido82625%68.178.4-10.2
20 Ibaraki Robots82625%72.683.2-10.6
21 Brave Thunders92722%72.282.1-9.9
22 Hiroshima D.92722%71.182.6-11.4
23 Shiga91811%76.786.9-10.2
24 Koshigaya Alphas91811%69.683.4-13.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Alvark2422211279
Saga1018221666
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