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Saga vs Alvark Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 30 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 05:05
Final 61-94
22-24 14-21 8-32 17-17
Position#15
Record13-12
FormLWWWL
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game74.9
Saga
Japan
vs
Alvark 🏆
Japan
Position#2
Record21-4
FormWWWLW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game65.8
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2023-24
Meetings · Saga v Alvark
26 Oct 2026
SAGA88
ALVA112
07 Dec 2025
SAGA90
ALVA77
06 Dec 2025
SAGA91
ALVA64
30 Dec 2023
SAGA61
ALVA94
29 Dec 2023
SAGA68
ALVA74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Alvark winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Osaka
#18
W
79-45
79
45
+34
78avg 69
A03/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
L
81-91
81
91
-10
78avg 69
H06/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
74-72
74
72
+2
68avg 69
H09/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
81-68
81
68
+13
72avg 69
H10/12
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
95-105
95
105
-10
83avg 69
A16/12
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
77-108
77
108
-31
63avg 69
A17/12
B League
Shimane
#12
W
80-77
80
77
+3
72avg 69
H20/12
B League
Yokohama
#19
W
87-54
87
54
+33
90avg 69
H23/12
B League
Yokohama
#19
W
102-63
102
63
+39
103avg 69
H24/12
B League
Alvark
#2
L
68-74
68
74
-6
57avg 69
H29/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-9
20-10
25-12
13-14
17-24
21-20
16-20
27-27
19-20
20-19
13-19
22-14
18-22
22-14
16-22
25-10
21-30
27-27
17-23
30-25
28-34
21-28
15-23
13-23
18-24
21-14
17-22
24-17
23-16
22-22
27-8
15-8
26-13
30-18
22-16
24-16
14-18
13-18
15-13
26-25
158.1Avg total
82.4Scored
75.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)76.874.9151.7+1.952%
Season at home (14)76.573.4149.9+3.157%
Season away (11)77.276.9154.1+0.345%
Last 10 (10)82.475.7158.1+6.760%
Last 5 (5)82.875.2158.0+7.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)73.788.5162.2-14.817%
vs Similar (12)74.273.9148.2+0.342%
vs Weaker (7)83.965.0148.9+18.9100%
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlvark
Date
Competition
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
61-76
61
76
-15
45avg 75
H03/12
B League
Gunma
#13
L
82-91
82
91
-9
68avg 75
H06/12
B League
Toyama
#24
W
89-66
89
66
+23
89avg 75
A09/12
B League
Toyama
#24
W
92-67
92
67
+25
90avg 75
A10/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
W
71-62
71
62
+9
62avg 75
A16/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
W
94-84
94
84
+10
94avg 75
A17/12
B League
Hokkaido
#20
W
81-54
81
54
+27
82avg 75
H20/12
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
W
83-68
83
68
+15
77avg 75
H23/12
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
59-82
59
82
-23
45avg 75
H24/12
B League
Saga
#15
W
74-68
74
68
+6
73avg 75
A29/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
16-15
12-20
13-22
20-24
24-19
16-25
22-23
16-17
30-23
21-11
22-15
22-17
21-16
34-21
15-13
17-16
20-14
16-10
18-22
20-15
27-20
27-34
20-15
23-15
19-11
21-11
18-17
19-19
26-18
21-14
17-17
21-21
9-25
19-19
10-17
18-14
18-13
13-15
25-26
150.4Avg total
78.6Scored
71.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)80.065.8145.8+14.184%
Season at home (12)77.568.7146.2+8.867%
Season away (13)82.263.2145.5+19.0100%
Last 10 (10)78.671.8150.4+6.870%
Last 5 (5)78.271.2149.4+7.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)64.091.0155.0-27.00%
vs Similar (5)76.274.2150.4+2.060%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)80.665.9146.5+14.787%
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: +4.0+4.0Q4: -0.7-0.7
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: +4.0+4.0Q4: -0.7-0.7
SagaAlvark
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Osaka
#18
W
41-19
41
19
+22
A03/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
L
38-44
38
44
-6
H06/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H09/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H10/12
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
48-57
48
57
-9
A16/12
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
49-62
49
62
-13
A17/12
B League
Shimane
#12
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H20/12
B League
Yokohama
#19
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H23/12
B League
Yokohama
#19
W
56-31
56
31
+25
H24/12
B League
Alvark
#2
L
27-36
27
36
-9
H29/12
B League
82.2Avg total
42.2Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (25)39.138.277.3+0.956%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.138.176.1+0.057%-
Last 30 away (11)40.438.478.7+2.055%-
Last 10 (10)42.240.082.2+2.250%-
Last 5 (5)43.241.084.2+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)36.048.584.5-12.50%-
vs Similar (12)38.235.573.7+2.767%-
vs Weaker (7)43.334.077.3+9.386%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hiroshima D.
#6
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H03/12
B League
Gunma
#13
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H06/12
B League
Toyama
#24
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A09/12
B League
Toyama
#24
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A10/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
W
37-30
37
30
+7
A16/12
B League
Nagasaki
#17
W
47-35
47
35
+12
A17/12
B League
Hokkaido
#20
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H20/12
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H23/12
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
30-46
30
46
-16
H24/12
B League
Saga
#15
W
36-27
36
27
+9
A29/12
B League
75.7Avg total
40.6Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.834.073.9+5.873%-
Last 30 at home (12)39.635.775.2+3.967%-
Last 30 away (18)40.032.972.9+7.178%-
Last 10 (10)40.635.175.7+5.590%-
Last 5 (5)40.034.274.2+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)29.044.573.5-15.50%-
vs Similar (5)33.236.269.4-3.020%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)42.232.774.9+9.691%-
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 82.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.319.1
54.1%
50.9%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.610.8
39.1%
33.5%32.4
🏀 Free throws17.111.4
66.7%
72.0%11.4
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 77.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.219.9
52.1%
50.9%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.37.6
31.3%
33.5%22.8
🏀 Free throws21.215.0
70.8%
72.0%15.0
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
LWWWLLWWLW
Alvark
WLWWWWWWLL
#15
League position
#2
+10.5
Net rating
+9.8
112.2
Offensive rating
111.5
101.7
Defensive rating
101.8
56.1%
Effective FG%
50.1%
48.9%
Opp. effective FG%
50.3%
15.7%
Turnover %
15.6%
24.9%
Off. rebound %
36.2%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.34
39.1%
3-point %
31.3%
61.9%
Assist %
62.9%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence112.2 · 111.5Defence101.7 · 101.8Shooting56.1% · 50.1%3-point %39.1% · 31.3%Ball care15.7% · 15.6%Off. rebounds24.9% · 36.2%Free throws0.27 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Saga   ■ Alvark
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Saga wins
1
Alvark wins
DateGameScore
29/12/23Saga v Alvark68-74
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/23HAlvark68-74
24/12/23HYokohama102-63
23/12/23HYokohama87-54
20/12/23HShimane80-77
17/12/23ANeoPhoenix77-108
16/12/23ANeoPhoenix95-105
10/12/23HIbaraki Robots81-68
09/12/23HIbaraki Robots74-72
06/12/23HNagasaki81-91
03/12/23AOsaka79-45
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/23ASaga74-68
24/12/23HDiamond Dolphins59-82
23/12/23HDiamond Dolphins83-68
20/12/23HHokkaido81-54
17/12/23ANagasaki94-84
16/12/23ANagasaki71-62
10/12/23AToyama92-67
09/12/23AToyama89-66
06/12/23HGunma82-91
03/12/23HHiroshima D.61-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL52%
HomeWWWWL57%
AwayLWWLL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251411
Win %52%57%45%
Points / game76.876.577.2
Allowed / game74.973.476.9
Point differential+1.9+3.1+0.3
Avg total151.7149.9154.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%21%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)60% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %8%14%0%
Alvark
B League 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW84%
HomeLLWWL67%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251213
Win %84%67%100%
Points / game80.077.582.2
Allowed / game65.868.763.2
Point differential+14.1+8.8+19.0
Avg total145.8146.2145.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+68%67%69%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alvark2521484%80.065.8+14.1
2 NeoPhoenix2420483%90.677.5+13.1
3 Utsunomiya Brex2620677%77.368.1+9.2
4 Ryukyu2418675%80.677.0+3.6
5 SeaHorses Mikawa2416867%82.276.2+6.0
6 Diamond Dolphins2516964%82.078.1+3.9
7 Brave Thunders2516964%80.376.8+3.5
8 Shimane25151060%83.977.2+6.7
9 Chiba24131154%83.283.0+0.2
10 Nagasaki24131154%83.883.8-0.1
11 Saga25131252%76.874.9+1.9
12 Akita25131252%72.773.3-0.6
13 Nagoya Fighting Eagles25131252%73.974.6-0.6
14 Osaka25121348%77.680.4-2.8
15 Hiroshima D.24111346%77.974.7+3.2
16 Sendai24111346%81.180.6+0.5
17 Sun Rockers Shibuya24111346%76.777.4-0.8
18 Gunma24111346%75.679.4-3.8
19 Yokohama24101442%74.881.2-6.5
20 Kyoto2581732%76.182.6-6.5
21 Hokkaido2461825%72.880.7-7.9
22 Shinshu2642215%72.584.7-12.2
23 Toyama2432112%73.085.0-11.9
24 Ibaraki Robots251244%73.285.4-12.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga221481761
Alvark2421321794
← all games of the day
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