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Saga vs Alvark Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 05:05
Final 91-64
20-19 15-16 25-12 31-17
Position#12
Record7-11
FormWLLWL
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game84.7
Saga 🏆
Japan
vs
Position#8
Record10-8
FormLWWLL
Points / game76.9
Allowed / game77.7
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Saga v Alvark
26 Oct 2026
SAGA88
ALVA112
07 Dec 2025
SAGA90
ALVA77
06 Dec 2025
SAGA91
ALVA64
30 Dec 2023
SAGA61
ALVA94
29 Dec 2023
SAGA68
ALVA74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Alvark winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Koshigaya Alphas
#19
W
76-73
76
73
+3
76avg 71
H26/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#10
W
85-73
85
73
+12
87avg 71
A29/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
67-92
67
92
-25
60avg 71
H01/11
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
72-81
72
81
-9
65avg 71
H02/11
B League
Shiga
#18
L
77-83
77
83
-6
69avg 71
H05/11
B League
Osaka
#17
W
87-82
87
82
+5
85avg 71
H08/11
B League
Osaka
#17
L
81-83
81
83
-2
75avg 71
H09/11
B League
Hokkaido
#9
L
93-95
93
95
-2
84avg 71
A12/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
W
86-70
86
70
+16
84avg 71
A15/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
L
73-94
73
94
-21
65avg 71
A16/11
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
22-29
23-16
11-9
20-15
25-20
27-27
13-11
21-26
18-24
15-21
13-21
27-18
17-16
18-23
10-24
20-27
17-25
24-15
16-16
17-24
17-28
26-13
27-17
20-16
19-27
23-20
19-20
25-24
27-22
17-29
24-20
22-20
19-15
20-19
25-16
18-23
11-30
18-14
26-27
162.3Avg total
79.7Scored
82.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)81.284.7165.9-3.439%
Season at home (9)80.883.0163.8-2.244%
Season away (9)81.786.3168.0-4.733%
Last 10 (10)79.782.6162.3-2.940%
Last 5 (5)84.084.8168.8-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)71.881.6153.3-9.811%
vs Similar ◀ (13)86.684.8171.4+1.854%
vs Weaker (8)82.681.2163.9+1.462%
This opponent (Alvark) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlvark
Date
Competition
Kyoto
#20
W
94-73
94
73
+21
103avg 70
A26/10
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
98-94 OT
98
94
+4
83avg 70
A29/10
B League
Chiba
#6
W
78-69
78
69
+9
72avg 70
H01/11
B League
Chiba
#6
L
69-81
69
81
-12
58avg 70
H02/11
B League
Sendai
#11
W
94-80
94
80
+14
98avg 70
H05/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
L
66-83
66
83
-17
53avg 70
A08/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
W
91-90 OT
91
90
+1
88avg 70
A09/11
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
W
67-65
67
65
+2
63avg 70
H12/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#7
L
58-79
58
79
-21
47avg 70
H15/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#7
L
66-74
66
74
-8
62avg 70
H16/11
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
14-22
33-9
26-22
21-23
30-28
24-25
14-13
17-13
25-29
18-17
18-10
13-22
22-17
22-23
12-19
16-22
28-19
26-18
24-21
14-19
20-24
16-23
16-17
24-28
18-18
23-19
18-18
17-15
12-20
14-18
24-12
12-29
24-13
13-18
9-19
14-12
10-24
25-24
17-14
156.9Avg total
78.1Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)76.977.7154.6-0.856%
Season at home (11)73.974.7148.6-0.855%
Season away (7)81.682.4164.0-0.957%
Last 10 (10)78.178.8156.9-0.760%
Last 5 (5)69.678.2147.8-8.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)64.675.8140.4-11.20%
vs Similar ◀ (12)69.173.3142.4-4.250%
vs Weaker (13)85.676.5162.2+9.192%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: -4.4-4.4Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +1.3+1.3
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: -4.4-4.4Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +1.3+1.3
SagaAlvark
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Koshigaya Alphas
#19
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H26/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#10
W
45-35
45
35
+10
A29/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
39-50
39
50
-11
H01/11
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H02/11
B League
Shiga
#18
L
37-52
37
52
-15
H05/11
B League
Osaka
#17
L
34-52
34
52
-18
H08/11
B League
Osaka
#17
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H09/11
B League
Hokkaido
#9
W
52-46
52
46
+6
A12/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A15/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
L
29-53
29
53
-24
A16/11
B League
85.0Avg total
40.2Scored
44.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.543.384.8-1.843%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.243.586.7-0.350%-
Last 30 away (14)39.643.182.6-3.536%-
Last 10 (10)40.244.885.0-4.640%-
Last 5 (5)39.045.884.8-6.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)39.840.680.3-0.844%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)43.344.287.5-0.946%-
vs Weaker (8)40.544.985.4-4.438%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kyoto
#20
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A26/10
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
D
51-51
51
51
+0
A29/10
B League
Chiba
#6
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H01/11
B League
Chiba
#6
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H02/11
B League
Sendai
#11
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H05/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A08/11
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#16
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A09/11
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H12/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#7
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H15/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#7
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H16/11
B League
78.9Avg total
37.2Scored
41.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.438.574.9-2.033%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.239.876.1-3.629%-
Last 30 away (13)36.736.773.4+0.038%-
Last 10 (10)37.241.778.9-4.510%-
Last 5 (5)33.040.473.4-7.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)28.437.666.0-9.220%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)34.438.072.4-3.633%-
vs Weaker (13)41.439.280.6+2.238%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 79.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.218.9
55.3%
53.1%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.09.9
33.0%
33.7%29.7
🏀 Free throws15.312.0
78.4%
73.1%12.0
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 77.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.7 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.318.7
48.8%
53.1%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.49.8
34.5%
33.7%29.4
🏀 Free throws14.410.7
74.3%
73.1%10.7
They take 66.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
LWLLWLLLWW
Alvark
LLWWLWLWWW
#12
League position
#8
-2.8
Net rating
-0.4
109.9
Offensive rating
106.9
112.7
Defensive rating
107.3
52.6%
Effective FG%
50.1%
53.1%
Opp. effective FG%
47.6%
16.4%
Turnover %
15.5%
29.1%
Off. rebound %
30.9%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.22
33.0%
3-point %
34.5%
76.0%
Assist %
70.9%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence109.9 · 106.9Defence112.7 · 107.3Shooting52.6% · 50.1%3-point %33.0% · 34.5%Ball care16.4% · 15.5%Off. rebounds29.1% · 30.9%Free throws0.24 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Saga   ■ Alvark
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Saga wins
4
Alvark wins
DateGameScore
27/10/24Alvark v Saga79-66
26/10/24Alvark v Saga79-74
30/12/23Saga v Alvark61-94
29/12/23Saga v Alvark68-74
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/11/25ASun Rockers Shibuya73-94
15/11/25ASun Rockers Shibuya86-70
12/11/25AHokkaido93-95
09/11/25HOsaka81-83
08/11/25HOsaka87-82
05/11/25HShiga77-83
02/11/25HSeaHorses Mikawa72-81
01/11/25HSeaHorses Mikawa67-92
29/10/25ANeoPhoenix85-73
26/10/25HKoshigaya Alphas76-73
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/11/25HDiamond Dolphins66-74
15/11/25HDiamond Dolphins58-79
12/11/25HUtsunomiya Brex67-65
09/11/25ASun Rockers Shibuya91-90 OT
08/11/25ASun Rockers Shibuya66-83
05/11/25HSendai94-80
02/11/25HChiba69-81
01/11/25HChiba78-69
29/10/25AAltiri Chiba98-94 OT
26/10/25AKyoto94-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL39%
HomeLLLWL44%
AwayLWLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %39%44%33%
Points / game81.280.881.7
Allowed / game84.783.086.3
Point differential-3.4-2.2-4.7
Avg total165.9163.8168.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%11%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)67% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Alvark
B League 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL56%
HomeLWWLL55%
AwayWWWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18117
Win %56%55%57%
Points / game76.973.981.6
Allowed / game77.774.782.4
Point differential-0.8-0.8-0.9
Avg total154.6148.6164.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%36%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %17%9%29%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nagasaki1816289%92.676.8+15.7
2 Diamond Dolphins1816289%84.269.9+14.2
3 Chiba1815383%82.774.8+7.9
4 Utsunomiya Brex1814478%84.176.1+8.0
5 Hokkaido1814478%87.483.7+3.8
6 SeaHorses Mikawa1913668%84.979.4+5.5
7 Gunma1812667%82.774.6+8.1
8 Ryukyu1812667%84.176.2+7.8
9 Hiroshima D.1811761%87.781.9+5.8
10 Shimane1810856%83.481.2+2.3
11 Alvark1810856%76.977.7-0.8
12 Shiga1991047%81.182.9-1.8
13 Osaka1881044%84.185.0-0.9
14 Koshigaya Alphas1881044%73.175.6-2.5
15 Sendai1881044%78.682.6-4.0
16 Sun Rockers Shibuya1881044%76.080.2-4.2
17 NeoPhoenix1871139%79.279.9-0.7
18 Saga1871139%81.284.7-3.4
19 Altiri Chiba1861233%80.684.1-3.5
20 Nagoya Fighting Eagles1861233%79.183.4-4.3
21 Yokohama1861233%79.284.1-4.9
22 Kyoto1851328%72.779.6-6.9
23 Toyama1851328%83.692.1-8.5
24 Ibaraki Robots1831517%74.381.6-7.3
25 Brave Thunders1831517%74.784.7-10.0
26 Akita1831517%68.483.9-15.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga2015253191
Alvark1916121764
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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