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San Diego State vs New Mexico State Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Projected 84-66
Projected total 149.1
Scheduled
Position#63
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game89.0
Allowed / game73.0
San Diego State
USA
Vs
94%
■ SAN 94%■ NEW 6%
Pythia win probability
New Mexico State
USA
Position#292
Record1-2
FormWLWLL
Points / game66.3
Allowed / game78.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

San Diego State faces New Mexico State on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Aztecs at 94% thanks to a flawless 3-0 record, 89.0 points per game and only 73.0 allowed, placing them 66th in the league, while the Aggies sit 293rd with a 1-2 record, 66.3 points per game and 78.3 allowed. San Diego State has won both of its home games, scoring 95.0 per contest and conceding 76.5, and has won four of its last five games, including a 88-75 victory over Bethune-Cookman, a 77-66 win at Colorado and a 102-78 win at CS Fullerton. New Mexico State has gone 0-2 on the road, averaging 63.0 points and allowing 84.5, and has won only two of its last five games, losing 58-60 to UTEP, 68-109 to Gonzaga and beating Western N. M. 73-66 at home. The Pythia model projects a 84-66 score, 149.1 total points, a -12.0 home line with a 71% chance of covering and a 144.0 total with a 63% over probability, and a 1% chance of overtime. The final game-day fact: San Diego State will be the home team.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

San Diego State win
93.9%fair 1.06
Best odds1.12
Implied86.8%
Edge+7.1pp
New Mexico State win
6.1%fair 16.46
Best odds7.50
Implied13.2%
Edge-7.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 07:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

San Diego StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah State
#20
W
89-72
89
72
+17
H26/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
76-81
76
81
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
77-86
77
86
-9
A04/03
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
89-86
89
86
+3
H07/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
71-62
71
62
+9
H13/03
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
64-62
64
62
+2
H14/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
62-73
62
73
-11
A14/03
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#166
W
102-78
102
78
+24
H04/11
NCAA
Colorado
#213
W
77-66
77
66
+11
A07/11
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#364
W
88-75
88
75
+13
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
46-33
43-39
37-36
39-45
27-34
50-52
42-39
47-47
39-27
32-35
37-33
27-29
35-34
27-39
54-43
48-35
35-17
42-49
36-35
52-40
153.6Avg total
79.5Scored
74.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)89.073.0162.0+16.0100%
Season at home (2)95.076.5171.5+18.5100%
Season away (1)77.066.0143.0+11.0100%
Last 10 (10)79.574.1153.6+5.470%
Last 5 (5)78.670.8149.4+7.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)67.870.0137.8-2.240%
vs Similar (14)75.071.3146.3+3.764%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)88.167.1155.2+21.0100%
This opponent (New Mexico State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Mexico StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTEP
#307
W
67-63
67
63
+4
H22/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
70-93
70
93
-23
A27/02
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
85-86 OT
85
86
-1
A28/02
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
77-75 OT
77
75
+2
H06/03
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
79-76
79
76
+3
H07/03
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
68-63
68
63
+5
A11/03
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
61-69
61
69
-8
A12/03
NCAA
Western N. M.
#352
W
73-66
73
66
+7
H04/11
NCAA
Gonzaga
#272
L
68-109
68
109
-41
A07/11
NCAA
UTEP
#164
L
58-60
58
60
-2
A13/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-25
32-38
26-48
44-45
42-36
34-40
24-33
44-35
37-33
42-43
39-28
29-35
26-37
35-32
26-31
47-35
42-47
26-62
28-28
30-32
146.6Avg total
70.6Scored
76.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)66.378.3144.7-12.033%
Season at home (1)73.066.0139.0+7.0100%
Season away (2)63.084.5147.5-21.50%
Last 10 (10)70.676.0146.6-5.450%
Last 5 (5)65.673.4139.0-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)70.078.4148.4-8.414%
vs Similar (15)73.676.2149.8-2.647%
vs Weaker (6)77.071.7148.7+5.350%
This opponent (San Diego State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 138.5
Over 138.5
74.3%
@ 1.50+10.4pp
Under 138.5
25.7%
@ 2.75-10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 143.5 · main line
Over 143.5
63.4%
@ 1.93+12.9pp
Under 143.5
36.6%
@ 1.95-12.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
SBO
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 148.5
Over 148.5
51.3%
@ 2.50+13.4pp
Under 148.5
48.7%
@ 1.52-13.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

San Diego State total 74
Over 74
84.2%
Under 74
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Diego State total 78 · main line
Over 78
72.2%
@ 1.87+22.2pp
Under 78
27.8%
@ 1.85-22.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
San Diego State total 82
Over 82
56.6%
Under 82
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
New Mexico State total 62
Over 62
64.0%
Under 62
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
New Mexico State total 66 · main line
Over 66
47.6%
@ 1.87-2.1pp
Under 66
52.4%
@ 1.85+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.83
New Mexico State total 70
Over 70
31.7%
Under 70
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread San Diego State -16
SAN -16
57.4%
@ 2.62+21.9pp
NEW +16
42.6%
@ 1.44-21.9pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
2.62
NEW
Bet365
1.44
Spread San Diego State -13 · main line
SAN -13
67.8%
@ 2.00+17.2pp
NEW +13
32.2%
@ 1.94-17.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
NEW
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.71
Spread San Diego State -10
SAN -10
77.0%
@ 1.68+20.1pp
NEW +10
23.0%
@ 2.21-20.1pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.64
NEW
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.12

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.7+5.71st half: -2.1-2.12nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: -3.4-3.4
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.7+5.71st half: -2.1-2.12nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: -3.4-3.4
San Diego StateNew Mexico State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
San Diego StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah State
#20
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H26/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A28/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A04/03
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H07/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
39-27
39
27
+12
H13/03
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H14/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
35-34
35
34
+1
A14/03
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#166
W
54-43
54
43
+11
H04/11
NCAA
Colorado
#213
W
35-17
35
17
+18
A07/11
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#364
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H11/11
NCAA
71.9Avg total
38.8Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)38.631.670.2+7.083%53%
Last 30 at home (17)41.431.472.8+10.1100%53%
Last 30 away (13)35.031.966.9+3.162%54%
Last 10 (10)38.833.171.9+5.790%70%
Last 5 (5)39.432.471.8+7.0100%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)35.032.267.2+2.860%40%
vs Similar (14)36.430.967.3+5.479%43%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)43.232.275.4+11.0100%73%
This opponent (New Mexico State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Mexico StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTEP
#307
W
35-25
35
25
+10
H22/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
26-48
26
48
-22
A27/02
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
L
24-33
24
33
-9
H06/03
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H07/03
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
39-28
39
28
+11
A11/03
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
26-37
26
37
-11
A12/03
NCAA
Western N. M.
#352
L
26-31
26
31
-5
H04/11
NCAA
Gonzaga
#272
L
42-47
42
47
-5
A07/11
NCAA
UTEP
#164
D
28-28
28
28
+0
A13/11
NCAA
67.1Avg total
32.5Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)34.234.768.9-0.640%47%
Last 30 at home (14)34.231.365.5+2.950%43%
Last 30 away (16)34.137.871.9-3.631%50%
Last 10 (10)32.534.667.1-2.140%40%
Last 5 (5)32.234.266.4-2.020%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)33.137.971.0-4.729%57%
vs Similar (15)33.636.369.9-2.733%47%
vs Weaker (6)35.230.765.8+4.567%33%
This opponent (San Diego State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
SAN win
no forecast
@ 1.21
NEW win
no forecast
@ 4.50
1st half Spread San Diego State -6 · main line
SAN -6
no forecast
@ 1.85
NEW +6
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 68.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
San Diego State 1st half total 37 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
New Mexico State 1st half total 31 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread San Diego State -7
SAN -7
no forecast
@ 1.83
NEW +7
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread San Diego State -4.5
SAN -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
NEW +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Over/Under 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.57
Under
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Spread San Diego State -8.5
SAN -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
NEW +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread San Diego State -3.5
SAN -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
NEW +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Spread San Diego State -9.5
SAN -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
NEW +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread San Diego State -2.5
SAN -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
NEW +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.82
1st half Over/Under 62.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.40
Under
no forecast
@ 2.70
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
SAN
no forecast
@ 1.24
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
NEW
no forecast
@ 4.46

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
SAN win + total 143.5
🔒 Pro
NEW win + total 143.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: SAN leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: NEW leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
San Diego State over 76.576.4%1.69
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.62		---+22.4pp
San Diego State over 7872.2%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		--+22.2pp
San Diego State -1077.0%1.66
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.64		---+20.1pp
Over 140.570.1%1.57
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.52		---+11.2pp
New Mexico State under 71.572.8%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+3.7pp
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🔒 63 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
San Diego State wins
0
New Mexico State wins
No previous meetings.
San Diego Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HBethune-Cookman88-75
07/11/26AColorado77-66
04/11/26HCS Fullerton102-78
14/03/26AUtah State62-73
14/03/26HNew Mexico64-62
13/03/26HColorado State71-62
07/03/26HUNLV89-86
04/03/26ABoise State77-86
28/02/26ANew Mexico76-81
26/02/26HUtah State89-72
New Mexico Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AUTEP58-60
07/11/26AGonzaga68-109
04/11/26HWestern N. M.73-66
12/03/26ASam Houston St.61-69
11/03/26AJacksonville State68-63
07/03/26HKennesaw State79-76
06/03/26HJacksonville State77-75 OT
28/02/26AMiddle Tenn. St.85-86 OT
27/02/26AWestern Kentucky70-93
22/02/26HUTEP67-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

San Diego State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game89.095.077.0
Allowed / game73.076.566.0
Point differential+16.0+18.5+11.0
Avg total162.0171.5143.0
Over 143.567%100%0%
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
New Mexico State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game66.373.063.0
Allowed / game78.366.084.5
Point differential-12.0+7.0-21.5
Avg total144.7139.0147.5
Over 143.533%0%50%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boise State330100%114.371.0+43.3
2 Utah State440100%105.570.5+35.0
3 Grand Canyon440100%97.270.8+26.5
4 San Diego State330100%89.073.0+16.0
5 UNLV330100%84.374.7+9.7
6 New Mexico43175%93.271.0+22.2
7 Wyoming43175%81.859.8+22.0
8 Air Force43175%93.583.8+9.8
9 Colorado State43175%76.871.2+5.5
10 Fresno State43175%84.283.0+1.2
11 Nevada42250%79.073.2+5.8
12 San Jose State31233%83.081.7+1.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kennesaw State440100%95.564.8+30.8
2 Missouri State330100%85.361.3+24.0
3 Florida International330100%91.771.0+20.7
4 Western Kentucky43175%84.263.5+20.8
5 Middle Tenn. St.43175%80.876.2+4.5
6 Liberty32167%81.364.0+17.3
7 UTEP32167%71.767.3+4.3
8 Louisiana Tech42250%69.863.2+6.5
9 Jacksonville State42250%80.075.5+4.5
10 Sam Houston St.42250%86.885.0+1.8
11 Delaware31233%76.762.7+14.0
12 New Mexico State31233%66.378.3-12.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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