On 14 November 2026 the Santa Clara Broncos will host the New Mexico Lobos in an NCAA contest, with the Pythia model designating Santa Clara as the favourite at 82% because of their undefeated 4-0 record, 85.8 points per game and 72.5 allowed, placing them 78th in the league, while New Mexico also remains unbeaten at 3-0, 96.0 points per game and 64.7 allowed, 16th in the standings; Santa Clara's home form is flawless at 3-0 with 89.0 points per game and 73.0 allowed, and their last five games include a 95-72 win over Wisc. Milwaukee, a 83-77 win at home over Sacramento State and a 76-71 win away at North Texas, whereas New Mexico's last five feature a 100-60 victory over Utah Tech, a 94-65 win over Northern Arizona and a 94-69 win at UALR; the teams have met twice before, with New Mexico winning both times, most recently 98-71 on 6 December 2025; Pythia projects a 84-74 score, a 157.7 total, a 1.5-point home line with an 83% chance of Santa Clara covering, an over line of 164.5 with a 34% chance of the over, and a 3% probability of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Santa Clara winWon
81.7%fair 1.22
Best odds2.09
Implied46.5%
Edge+35.2pp
New Mexico winLost
18.3%fair 5.46
Best odds1.80
Implied53.5%
Edge-35.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 160Actual: Over 160
Over 160
43.8%
@ 1.40-22.2pp
Under 160
56.2%
@ 2.72+22.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.72
Over/Under 165 · main lineActual: Over 165
Over 165
32.0%
@ 1.89-18.5pp
Under 165
68.0%
@ 2.00+18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.81
Marathon Be
1.81
Bet365
1.71
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.90
SBO
1.88
Over/Under 170Actual: Over 170
Over 170
22.0%
@ 2.30-18.3pp
Under 170
78.0%
@ 1.55+18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
Under
Bet365
1.55
📊 3. Team Totals
Santa Clara total 78Actual: Santa Clara over 78
Over 78
73.4%
Under 78
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara total 82 · main lineActual: Santa Clara over 82
Over 82
58.3%
@ 1.85+7.9pp
Under 82
41.7%
@ 1.88-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Santa Clara total 86Actual: Santa Clara over 86
Over 86
41.7%
Under 86
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
New Mexico total 79Actual: New Mexico over 79
Over 79
29.2%
Under 79
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
New Mexico total 83 · main lineActual: New Mexico over 83
Over 83
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 83
no forecast
@ 1.87
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
New Mexico total 86.5Actual: New Mexico under 86.5
Over 86.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
Under 86.5
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
Under
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Santa Clara -1.5Actual: Santa Clara -1.5
SANT -1.5
79.7%
@ 2.23+36.6pp
NEW +1.5
20.3%
@ 1.68-36.6pp
Best 5 market prices
SANT
1xBet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.07
NEW
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
1xBet
1.58
Spread Santa Clara +1.5 · main lineActual: Santa Clara +1.5
SANT +1.5
83.4%
@ 1.96+34.4pp
NEW -1.5
16.6%
@ 1.88-34.4pp
Best 5 market prices
SANT
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.93
Betano
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
NEW
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
Spread Santa Clara +4.5Actual: Santa Clara +4.5
SANT +4.5
89.1%
@ 1.67+29.7pp
NEW -4.5
10.9%
@ 2.30-29.7pp
Best 5 market prices
SANT
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
NEW
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.07
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Santa ClaraNew Mexico
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Santa ClaraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A26/02
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H01/03
NCAA
Pacific
#165
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H09/03
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A10/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
W
33-29
33
29
+4
A11/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A20/03
NCAA
Towson
#175
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#258
W
46-27
46
27
+19
H05/11
NCAA
Sacramento State
#284
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H08/11
NCAA
North Texas
#99
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A12/11
NCAA
72.8Avg total
38.3Scored
34.5Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 78.5
Last 30 (30)
39.8
34.8
74.6
+5.1
67%
33%
Last 30 at home (16)
40.9
34.2
75.2
+6.7
81%
38%
Last 30 away (14)
38.6
35.4
73.9
+3.2
50%
29%
Last 10 (10)
38.3
34.5
72.8
+3.8
70%
20%
Last 5 (5)
39.8
33.6
73.4
+6.2
80%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)
35.8
37.8
73.5
-2.0
25%
25%
vs Similar (6)
35.0
35.2
70.2
-0.2
50%
17%
vs Weaker (20)
42.1
34.0
76.2
+8.1
80%
40%
This opponent (New Mexico) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: New Mexico win
SANT win
no forecast
@ 2.00
NEW win
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Spread Santa Clara +1.5 · main lineActual: New Mexico -1.5
SANT +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
NEW -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
2nd half Over/Under 85.5 · main lineActual: Over 85.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Santa Clara (regulation)
SANT
no forecast
@ 2.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
NEW
no forecast
@ 1.87
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Santa Clara -2
79.0%
2.23
Pinnacle
2.32
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
+37.7pp
Won
Santa Clara -2.5
76.4%
2.32
1xBet
2.37
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.25
-
-
+37.1pp
Won
Santa Clara -4
72.9%
2.57
Bet365
2.57
-
-
-
-
+37.0pp
Won
Santa Clara -1
81.3%
2.11
Pinnacle
2.16
Bet365
2.06
-
-
-
+37.0pp
Won
New Mexico under 80.5
74.9%
2.42
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.35
-
-
-
+36.9pp
Lost
Santa Clara -3.5
73.8%
2.50
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.45
-
-
-
+36.8pp
Won
Santa Clara -1.5
79.7%
2.19
1xBet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.07
-
+36.6pp
Won
Santa Clara -4.5
70.5%
2.71
Betano
2.77
Bet365
2.65
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Won
Santa Clara -3
75.8%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Won
New Mexico under 79.5
71.8%
2.57
Betano
2.57
-
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Lost
Santa Clara +1
83.1%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.90
-
-
+35.7pp
Won
Santa Clara (regulation)
79.6%
2.09
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.09
Marathon Bet
2.05
-
-
+35.4pp
Won
Santa Clara win
81.7%
2.03
Bet365
2.09
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.07
WilliamHill
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
+35.2pp
Won
Santa Clara +1.5
83.4%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.93
Betano
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.86
+34.4pp
Won
Santa Clara +2
85.4%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
-
+33.8pp
Won
Santa Clara +2.5
85.7%
1.76
Betano
1.80
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Bet365
1.74
1xBet
1.73
+32.0pp
Won
Santa Clara +3
87.2%
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+31.5pp
Won
Santa Clara +4
88.9%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+30.5pp
Won
Santa Clara +3.5
87.4%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.72
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
+29.7pp
Won
Santa Clara +4.5
89.1%
1.59
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+29.7pp
Won
Santa Clara +5
90.5%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+29.2pp
Won
Santa Clara +5.5
90.6%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+28.0pp
Won
Santa Clara +6
91.8%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Won
Santa Clara +6.5
91.9%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+26.2pp
Won
Santa Clara +7
93.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Won
Santa Clara +7.5
93.1%
1.35
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+24.7pp
Won
Santa Clara +8
94.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Won
Santa Clara +8.5
94.1%
1.29
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
Santa Clara +9
94.9%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
Santa Clara +9.5
95.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Under 169
76.2%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Lost
Under 168.5
74.8%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.76
WilliamHill
1.73
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.65
-
+20.7pp
Lost
Santa Clara +11.5
96.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Under 170
78.0%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
Under 168
74.3%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.65
-
-
+18.2pp
Lost
Under 169.5
76.6%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Lost
Under 170.5
78.4%
1.53
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Lost
Under 167.5
72.8%
1.74
SBO
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
Bet365
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
+17.9pp
Lost
Under 166
70.1%
1.86
Bet365
1.92
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
-
+17.7pp
Lost
Under 171
79.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Lost
Under 172
81.5%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Lost
Under 167
72.2%
1.78
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
-
+17.0pp
Lost
Under 166.5
70.8%
1.82
SBO
1.88
Bet365
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
+16.9pp
Lost
Under 173
83.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Lost
Under 171.5
80.1%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Lost
Under 174.5
84.7%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Lost
Under 172.5
81.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Lost
Under 173.5
83.3%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Lost
Under 174
84.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Lost
Under 176.5
87.3%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Santa Clara +16.5
98.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Santa Clara +21.5
99.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Santa Clara over 76.5
77.3%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Santa Clara over 78.5
70.9%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.5%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Santa Clara over 77.5
74.2%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Santa Clara over 70.5
91.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Santa Clara over 68.5
93.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Santa Clara over 75.5
80.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Santa Clara over 73.5
85.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Santa Clara over 72.5
87.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Santa Clara over 71.5
89.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Santa Clara over 69.5
92.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Santa Clara under 97.5
91.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Santa Clara under 95.5
87.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Santa Clara under 93.5
83.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Santa Clara under 92.5
80.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Santa Clara under 91.5
77.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Santa Clara under 89.5
71.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Lost
New Mexico +23.5
87.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Over 141.5
83.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
New Mexico over 64.5
81.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.1pp
Won
New Mexico +18.5
76.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.5pp
Won
Over 146.5
75.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-13.9pp
Won
New Mexico over 66.5
75.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-15.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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