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Serbia vs Italy Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 01 Sep 2023
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 76-78
19-23 23-17 20-19 14-19
Position#13
Record11-4
FormLWWWW
Points / game85.7
Allowed / game76.8
vs
Italy 🏆
Position#17
Record10-4
FormWWWLW
Points / game86.6
Allowed / game83.2
EuropeWorld Cup
Other2023
Meetings · Serbia v Italy
29 Nov 2026
SERB v ITAL
upcoming
01 Sep 2023
SERB76
ITAL78
11 Sep 2022
SERB86
ITAL94
04 Jul 2021
SERB95
ITAL102
23 Aug 2017
SERB73
ITAL65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Serbia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SerbiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Israel
#10
W
89-78
89
78
+11
A06/09
EuroBasket
Poland
#18
W
96-69
96
69
+27
H08/09
EuroBasket
Italy
#11
L
86-94
86
94
-8
H11/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#75
W
74-68
74
68
+6
A11/11
World Cup
Turkey
#50
W
77-76
77
76
+1
H14/11
World Cup
Greece
#25
L
92-97 OT
92
97
-5
A24/02
World Cup
Great Britain
#75
W
101-83
101
83
+18
H27/02
World Cup
China
#20
W
105-63
105
63
+42
H26/08
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
94-77
94
77
+17
A28/08
World Cup
South Sudan
#6
W
115-83
115
83
+32
A30/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-18
26-20
15-20
24-20
28-14
24-19
20-17
24-19
28-20
23-25
17-21
18-28
21-20
17-14
19-17
17-17
24-21
13-13
17-20
23-22
15-8
24-22
23-25
18-25
28-20
18-21
28-19
27-23
25-14
30-20
22-13
28-16
27-15
30-12
18-31
19-19
30-20
26-19
27-26
32-18
171.7Avg total
92.9Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)85.776.8162.5+8.973%
Season at home (7)90.379.0169.3+11.386%
Season away (8)81.674.9156.5+6.862%
Last 10 (10)92.978.8171.7+14.180%
Last 5 (5)101.480.6182.0+20.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)92.587.8180.2+4.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)87.375.0162.2+12.385%
This opponent (Italy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Great Britain
#14
W
90-56
90
56
+34
A08/09
EuroBasket
Serbia
#3
W
94-86
94
86
+8
A11/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
85-93 OT
85
93
-8
A14/09
EuroBasket
Spain
#7
L
84-88 OT
84
88
-4
H11/11
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
85-84
85
84
+1
A14/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#34
W
85-75
85
75
+10
H23/02
World Cup
Spain
#7
W
72-68
72
68
+4
A26/02
World Cup
Angola
#19
W
81-67
81
67
+14
A25/08
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
L
82-87
82
87
-5
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
90-83
90
83
+7
A29/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-20
18-17
20-17
23-2
20-28
25-23
21-17
28-18
20-27
11-11
31-18
15-21
18-22
15-14
16-19
21-15
24-19
19-21
17-18
25-26
23-21
20-22
15-14
27-18
13-16
20-13
19-15
20-24
23-17
20-23
18-17
20-10
19-13
20-25
17-31
26-18
20-23
28-16
25-21
17-23
163.5Avg total
84.8Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)86.683.2169.8+3.471%
Season at home (6)85.382.3167.7+3.067%
Season away (8)87.583.9171.4+3.675%
Last 10 (10)84.878.7163.5+6.170%
Last 5 (5)82.076.0158.0+6.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)81.682.6164.2-1.038%
vs Similar (13)88.686.8175.5+1.862%
vs Weaker (9)86.371.9158.2+14.4100%
This opponent (Serbia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +8.0+8.0Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +4.6+4.6Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +4.7+4.7
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +8.0+8.0Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +4.6+4.6Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +4.7+4.7
SerbiaItaly
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SerbiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Israel
#10
W
50-38
50
38
+12
A06/09
EuroBasket
Poland
#18
W
52-33
52
33
+19
H08/09
EuroBasket
Italy
#11
W
51-45
51
45
+6
H11/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#75
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A11/11
World Cup
Turkey
#50
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H14/11
World Cup
Greece
#25
W
39-30
39
30
+9
A24/02
World Cup
Great Britain
#75
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H27/02
World Cup
China
#20
W
55-34
55
34
+21
H26/08
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
57-27
57
27
+30
A28/08
World Cup
South Sudan
#6
W
56-39
56
39
+17
A30/08
World Cup
83.6Avg total
48.1Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.536.682.1+8.980%-
Last 30 at home (17)46.638.985.5+7.776%-
Last 30 away (13)44.233.677.8+10.585%-
Last 10 (10)48.135.583.6+12.6100%-
Last 5 (5)50.634.284.8+16.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)46.044.290.2+1.850%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)45.535.480.9+10.085%-
This opponent (Italy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Great Britain
#14
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A08/09
EuroBasket
Serbia
#3
L
45-51
45
51
-6
A11/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A14/09
EuroBasket
Spain
#7
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H11/11
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A14/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#34
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H23/02
World Cup
Spain
#7
W
33-29
33
29
+4
A26/02
World Cup
Angola
#19
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A25/08
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
48-39
48
39
+9
A29/08
World Cup
79.6Avg total
40.5Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.040.283.2+2.863%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.039.183.1+4.973%-
Last 30 away (15)42.041.383.3+0.753%-
Last 10 (10)40.539.179.6+1.460%-
Last 5 (5)41.237.879.0+3.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)41.440.581.9+0.950%-
vs Similar (13)42.241.183.2+1.162%-
vs Weaker (9)45.738.684.2+7.178%-
This opponent (Serbia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Serbia wins
2
Italy wins
DateGameScore
11/09/22Serbia v Italy86-94
19/08/22Italy v Serbia86-90
04/07/21Serbia v Italy95-102
04/09/19Italy v Serbia77-92
23/08/17Serbia v Italy73-65
Serbialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/08/23ASouth Sudan115-83
28/08/23APuerto Rico94-77
26/08/23HChina105-63
27/02/23HGreat Britain101-83
24/02/23AGreece92-97 OT
14/11/22HTurkey77-76
11/11/22AGreat Britain74-68
11/09/22HItaly86-94
08/09/22HPoland96-69
06/09/22AIsrael89-78
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/08/23APhilippines90-83
27/08/23HDominican Republic82-87
25/08/23AAngola81-67
26/02/23ASpain72-68
23/02/23HUkraine85-75
14/11/22AGeorgia85-84
11/11/22HSpain84-88 OT
14/09/22AFrance85-93 OT
11/09/22ASerbia94-86
08/09/22AGreat Britain90-56

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Serbia
World Cup 2023
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW73%
HomeLWWWW86%
AwayWWLWW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1578
Win %73%86%62%
Points / game85.790.381.6
Allowed / game76.879.074.9
Point differential+8.9+11.3+6.8
Avg total162.5169.3156.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%43%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)67% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %13%14%12%
Italy
World Cup 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW71%
HomeWWLWL67%
AwayWWWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1468
Win %71%67%75%
Points / game86.685.387.5
Allowed / game83.282.383.9
Point differential+3.4+3.0+3.6
Avg total169.8167.7171.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%17%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)33% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %14%17%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Russia330100%87.070.7+16.3
2 Canada1514193%99.768.9+30.8
3 Latvia1917289%85.172.7+12.3
4 Australia1513287%85.560.2+25.3
5 Spain1513287%84.867.9+16.9
6 Germany1513287%81.871.6+10.2
7 South Sudan1613381%81.170.4+10.8
8 Lithuania1512380%80.170.4+9.7
9 Dominican Republic1512380%82.372.8+9.5
10 Puerto Rico1310377%84.180.4+3.7
11 France1612475%80.766.2+14.5
12 Serbia1511473%85.776.8+8.9
13 Italy1410471%86.683.2+3.4
14 New Zealand139469%91.974.4+17.5
15 Greece139469%79.075.1+3.9
16 Angola1611569%73.764.7+9.0
17 China1611569%78.973.1+5.9
18 Ivory Coast1611569%75.071.1+3.9
19 Montenegro1913668%77.672.2+5.4
20 Belarus128467%80.267.2+13.0
21 Argentina128467%78.772.1+6.6
22 Slovenia1510567%84.979.1+5.8
23 Egypt1610662%75.468.1+7.4
24 Lebanon1610662%87.079.8+7.2
25 Finland1610662%82.181.8+0.3
26 Brazil138562%87.472.9+14.5
27 Georgia159660%79.177.1+2.1
28 Senegal127558%72.566.0+6.5
29 Nigeria127558%69.564.5+5.0
30 Iceland2112957%80.880.7+0.1
31 Mexico148657%82.482.7-0.4
32 Japan169756%78.377.1+1.2
33 Jordan158753%78.275.9+2.3
34 Sweden168850%81.175.8+5.4
35 Venezuela168850%76.471.4+5.0
36 Ukraine126650%80.277.2+3.0
37 Belgium126650%72.069.4+2.6
38 Tunisia126650%64.362.5+1.8
39 Portugal168850%70.971.6-0.7
40 Switzerland42250%62.263.2-1.0
41 Uruguay105550%71.974.2-2.3
42 Bosnia & Herzegovina126650%77.282.2-5.0
43 Hungary126650%72.679.5-6.9
44 Cape Verde157847%72.574.4-1.9
45 Philippines146843%78.979.4-0.6
46 Saudi Arabia125742%68.275.0-6.8
47 Kazakhstan125742%64.972.7-7.8
48 D.R. Congo125742%57.064.9-7.9
49 Mali52340%42.047.2-5.2
50 Iran1661038%69.072.6-3.6
51 Turkey114736%77.575.1+2.4
52 Israel124833%78.779.0-0.3
53 Poland62433%74.077.0-3.0
54 Cameroon124833%64.468.2-3.8
55 Estonia124833%72.581.4-8.9
56 Kosovo62433%75.885.2-9.3
57 Slovakia1651131%68.976.7-7.8
58 Colombia103730%77.091.8-14.8
59 Guinea123925%66.070.6-4.6
60 Czech Republic123925%73.280.7-7.5
61 Panama123925%68.578.7-10.2
62 Bahamas123925%77.691.9-14.3
63 North Macedonia102820%64.375.8-11.5
64 Luxembourg102820%76.388.1-11.8
65 Bulgaria61517%74.379.2-4.8
66 Croatia61517%77.083.2-6.2
67 Rwanda61517%56.765.2-8.5
68 Chile61517%66.075.7-9.7
69 Syria61517%69.379.3-10.0
70 Central African Republic61517%61.275.2-14.0
71 Uganda1221017%61.177.8-16.7
72 Albania61517%65.282.2-17.0
73 Bahrain1221017%63.483.7-20.2
74 Cyprus61517%59.080.2-21.2
75 Great Britain101910%69.783.2-13.5
76 Cuba4040%65.072.8-7.8
77 Netherlands110110%71.081.5-10.5
78 Denmark4040%69.584.5-15.0
79 Romania4040%69.889.5-19.8
80 India100100%61.189.5-28.4
81 Chinese Taipei6060%61.090.7-29.7
82 United States Virgin Islands6060%64.796.2-31.5
83 Indonesia6060%58.590.2-31.7
84 Paraguay6060%55.086.8-31.8
85 Kenya6060%42.574.8-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 85 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Serbia1923201476
Italy2317191978
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