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SMU Mustangs vs NC State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 83-84
42-34 41-50
Position#129
Record15-6
FormWLWWL
Points / game86.6
Allowed / game77.5
SMU Mustangs
USA
vs
NC State 🏆
USA
Position#128
Record16-6
FormLWWWW
Points / game85.9
Allowed / game72.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
NC State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Arkansas
#83
W
99-82
99
82
+17
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
110-63
110
63
+47
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
97-83
97
83
+14
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A08/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
75-82
75
82
-7
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
77-76
77
76
+1
H15/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
68-72
68
72
-4
H17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
91-79
91
79
+12
A21/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
83-80
83
80
+3
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
74-88
74
88
-14
A31/01
NCAA
1H
2H
51-47
48-35
51-19
59-44
39-39
58-44
25-34
45-40
35-41
40-41
39-38
38-38
37-40
31-32
45-36
46-43
46-34
37-46
47-44
27-44
162.3Avg total
84.4Scored
77.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)86.677.5164.1+9.171%
Season at home (14)91.174.8165.9+16.493%
Season away (7)77.683.0160.6-5.429%
Last 10 (10)84.477.9162.3+6.560%
Last 5 (5)78.679.0157.6-0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)72.786.0158.7-13.30%
vs Similar ◀ (15)82.076.5158.5+5.560%
vs Weaker (11)85.972.5158.5+13.482%
This opponent (NC State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ole Miss
#259
W
76-62
76
62
+14
H21/12
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
70-57
70
57
+13
H31/12
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
61-76
61
76
-15
H03/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
79-71
79
71
+8
A07/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
113-69
113
69
+44
A10/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H17/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
80-76 OT
80
76
+4
A21/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
81-72
81
72
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
88-68
88
68
+20
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
96-78
96
78
+18
A31/01
NCAA
1H
2H
45-26
31-36
36-32
34-25
20-40
41-36
40-32
39-39
56-31
57-38
35-34
39-44
38-33
31-36
34-33
47-39
41-37
47-31
49-31
47-47
152.5Avg total
81.8Scored
70.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)85.972.0157.9+14.073%
Season at home (14)85.068.7153.7+16.371%
Season away (8)87.577.6165.1+9.975%
Last 10 (10)81.870.7152.5+11.180%
Last 5 (5)83.874.4158.2+9.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)70.083.7153.7-13.733%
vs Similar ◀ (13)77.976.7154.6+1.246%
vs Weaker (14)87.468.1155.6+19.386%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +4.3+4.31st half: +6.5+6.52nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: +4.2+4.2
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +4.3+4.31st half: +6.5+6.52nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: +4.2+4.2
SMU MustangsNC State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Arkansas
#83
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
51-19
51
19
+32
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
25-34
25
34
-9
A08/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H15/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A21/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
47-44
47
44
+3
A31/01
NCAA
78.7Avg total
41.5Scored
37.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.936.676.5+3.457%-
Last 30 at home (19)41.335.276.5+6.174%-
Last 30 away (11)37.538.976.5-1.427%-
Last 10 (10)41.537.278.7+4.360%-
Last 5 (5)42.838.481.2+4.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)40.044.384.3-4.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)39.936.576.5+3.460%-
vs Weaker (11)40.534.975.5+5.655%-
This opponent (NC State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ole Miss
#259
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H21/12
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H31/12
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
20-40
20
40
-20
H03/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A07/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
56-31
56
31
+25
A10/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H17/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A21/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A31/01
NCAA
72.3Avg total
39.4Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.134.072.0+4.170%-
Last 30 at home (18)38.732.270.9+6.678%-
Last 30 away (12)37.136.773.8+0.458%-
Last 10 (10)39.432.972.3+6.590%-
Last 5 (5)39.433.673.0+5.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)29.041.770.7-12.733%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)34.434.969.3-0.546%-
vs Weaker (14)43.431.474.9+12.0100%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
SMU Mustangs wins
0
NC State wins
DateGameScore
25/01/25NC State v SMU Mustangs57-63
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26ALouisville74-88
24/01/26HFlorida State83-80
21/01/26AWake Forest91-79
17/01/26HVirginia68-72
15/01/26HVirginia Tech77-76
10/01/26ADuke75-82
08/01/26AClemson70-74
03/01/26HNorth Carolina97-83
28/12/25HCS Fullerton110-63
21/12/25HCentral Arkansas99-82
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26AWake Forest96-78
28/01/26HSyracuse88-68
24/01/26APittsburgh81-72
21/01/26AClemson80-76 OT
17/01/26HGeorgia Tech74-78
10/01/26AFlorida State113-69
07/01/26ABoston College79-71
03/01/26HVirginia61-76
31/12/25HWake Forest70-57
21/12/25HOle Miss76-62

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL71%
HomeWWWLW93%
AwayLLLWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21147
Win %71%93%29%
Points / game86.691.177.6
Allowed / game77.574.883.0
Point differential+9.1+16.4-5.4
Avg total164.1165.9160.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+52%71%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %10%7%14%
NC State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW73%
HomeWWLLW71%
AwayWWWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22148
Win %73%71%75%
Points / game85.985.087.5
Allowed / game72.068.777.6
Point differential+14.0+16.3+9.9
Avg total157.9153.7165.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%64%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %9%7%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2221195%84.163.6+20.5
2 North Carolina2218482%83.170.6+12.5
3 Clemson2218482%76.564.5+11.9
4 Virginia2218482%82.771.0+11.7
5 Miami (FL)2217577%84.770.1+14.6
6 NC State2216673%85.972.0+14.0
7 California2216673%78.370.6+7.7
8 Louisville2115671%86.170.5+15.6
9 SMU Mustangs2115671%86.677.5+9.1
10 Virginia Tech2316770%80.074.0+6.0
11 Stanford2214864%75.973.5+2.4
12 Syracuse23131057%75.870.7+5.1
13 Wake Forest22111150%80.077.6+2.5
14 Notre Dame22111150%74.072.2+1.8
15 Georgia Tech22111150%74.574.0+0.5
16 Florida State22101245%80.879.6+1.2
17 Pittsburgh2291341%72.071.1+1.0
18 Boston College2291341%67.268.3-1.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs424183
NC State345084
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