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Wake Forest vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 21 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 79-91
36-45 43-46
Position#190
Record11-7
FormLWLLW
Points / game81.1
Allowed / game75.0
Wake Forest
USA
vs
SMU Mustangs 🏆
USA
Position#129
Record13-5
FormWLLWL
Points / game87.3
Allowed / game76.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Wake Forest winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Wake ForestUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma
#154
L
68-86
68
86
-18
H03/12
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
75-66
75
66
+9
A06/12
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
111-73
111
73
+38
H14/12
NCAA
Longwood
#202
W
71-68
71
68
+3
H18/12
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
67-98
67
98
-31
H21/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
57-70
57
70
-13
A31/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H03/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
77-81
77
81
-4
H08/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
84-87
84
87
-3
A10/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
69-68
69
68
+1
A17/01
NCAA
1H
2H
35-37
33-49
34-34
41-32
57-39
54-34
30-34
41-34
37-54
30-44
32-36
25-34
36-32
45-46
38-39
39-42
38-49
46-38
31-34
38-34
153.5Avg total
76.0Scored
77.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)81.175.0156.1+6.161%
Season at home (11)85.374.7160.0+10.573%
Season away (7)74.475.4149.9-1.043%
Last 10 (10)76.077.5153.5-1.550%
Last 5 (5)73.676.8150.4-3.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)72.081.8153.8-9.811%
vs Similar (19)78.869.7148.5+9.179%
vs Weaker (2)80.578.0158.5+2.550%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vanderbilt
#37
L
69-88
69
88
-19
A04/12
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
93-80 OT
93
80
+13
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
77-89
77
89
-12
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
99-82
99
82
+17
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
110-63
110
63
+47
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
97-83
97
83
+14
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A08/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
75-82
75
82
-7
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
77-76
77
76
+1
H15/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
68-72
68
72
-4
H17/01
NCAA
1H
2H
38-48
31-40
41-27
36-50
44-47
33-42
51-47
48-35
51-19
59-44
39-39
58-44
25-34
45-40
35-41
40-41
39-38
38-38
37-40
31-32
162.4Avg total
83.5Scored
78.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)87.376.7164.0+10.672%
Season at home (13)91.874.4166.2+17.492%
Season away (5)75.682.8158.4-7.220%
Last 10 (10)83.578.9162.4+4.650%
Last 5 (5)77.477.4154.8+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)72.085.0157.0-13.00%
vs Similar (15)82.075.3157.3+6.760%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)84.872.4157.2+12.375%
This opponent (Wake Forest) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -2.0-2.01st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: +0.5+0.52nd half: +1.3+1.3
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -2.0-2.01st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: +0.5+0.52nd half: +1.3+1.3
Wake ForestSMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Wake ForestLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma
#154
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H03/12
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A06/12
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
57-39
57
39
+18
H14/12
NCAA
Longwood
#202
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H18/12
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
37-54
37
54
-17
H21/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A31/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H03/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H08/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A10/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A17/01
NCAA
75.6Avg total
36.8Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.835.971.7-0.137%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.734.473.1+4.453%-
Last 30 away (13)31.937.969.8-6.015%-
Last 10 (10)36.838.875.6-2.020%-
Last 5 (5)35.038.073.0-3.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)32.642.174.7-9.60%-
vs Similar (19)36.932.169.1+4.853%-
vs Weaker (2)39.044.083.0-5.050%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vanderbilt
#37
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A04/12
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
51-19
51
19
+32
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
25-34
25
34
-9
A08/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H15/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H17/01
NCAA
78.0Avg total
40.0Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.635.675.1+4.057%-
Last 30 at home (20)40.834.775.5+6.175%-
Last 30 away (10)37.137.374.4-0.220%-
Last 10 (10)40.038.078.0+2.040%-
Last 5 (5)35.038.473.4-3.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)36.544.581.0-8.00%-
vs Similar (15)39.736.175.8+3.760%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)40.433.874.2+6.758%-
This opponent (Wake Forest) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Wake Forest wins
0
SMU Mustangs wins
DateGameScore
15/02/25SMU Mustangs v Wake Forest66-77
Wake Forestlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26AFlorida State69-68
10/01/26ANorth Carolina84-87
08/01/26HMiami (FL)77-81
03/01/26HVirginia Tech81-78
31/12/25ANC State57-70
21/12/25HVanderbilt67-98
18/12/25HLongwood71-68
14/12/25HQueens Royals111-73
06/12/25AWest Virginia75-66
03/12/25HOklahoma68-86
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26HVirginia68-72
15/01/26HVirginia Tech77-76
10/01/26ADuke75-82
08/01/26AClemson70-74
03/01/26HNorth Carolina97-83
28/12/25HCS Fullerton110-63
21/12/25HCentral Arkansas99-82
14/12/25ALSU77-89
07/12/25HTexas A&M93-80 OT
04/12/25AVanderbilt69-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Wake Forest
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW61%
HomeWWLWL73%
AwayWWLLW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18117
Win %61%73%43%
Points / game81.185.374.4
Allowed / game75.074.775.4
Point differential+6.1+10.5-1.0
Avg total156.1160.0149.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%55%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)67% (3)40% (5)
Overtime %6%0%14%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL72%
HomeWWWWL92%
AwayWLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18135
Win %72%92%20%
Points / game87.391.875.6
Allowed / game76.774.482.8
Point differential+10.6+17.4-7.2
Avg total164.0166.2158.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%77%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)67% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %11%8%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1817194%85.565.1+20.4
2 Virginia1916384%82.469.1+13.3
3 Clemson2016480%77.165.2+11.8
4 Miami (FL)1915479%84.968.9+16.0
5 North Carolina1814478%81.969.6+12.4
6 California1914574%78.870.5+8.3
7 Virginia Tech1914574%82.374.1+8.3
8 Stanford1914574%76.572.2+4.3
9 Louisville1813572%87.969.6+18.4
10 SMU Mustangs1813572%87.376.7+10.6
11 NC State1913668%85.571.8+13.7
12 Syracuse1812667%75.767.7+8.1
13 Wake Forest1811761%81.175.0+6.1
14 Georgia Tech1911858%75.673.1+2.5
15 Notre Dame1810856%73.469.3+4.1
16 Pittsburgh1881044%73.371.1+2.2
17 Boston College1881044%68.668.5+0.1
18 Florida State1981142%81.480.4+1.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Wake Forest364379
SMU Mustangs454691
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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