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Sweden vs Finland Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 25 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#47
Record4-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game81.1
Allowed / game83.5
vs
Position#32
Record5-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game80.6
Allowed / game79.2
EuropeWorld CupRound 5
Other2027
Meetings · Sweden v Finland
25 Feb 2027
SWED v FINL
upcoming
27 Aug 2025
SWED90
FINL93
25 Nov 2021
SWED72
FINL62
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sweden win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Finland win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SwedenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lithuania
#4
L
71-74
71
74
-3
A03/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
79-85
79
85
-6
A06/09
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#49
L
80-97
80
97
-17
A28/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#44
L
83-94
83
94
-11
H01/12
World Cup
Estonia
#58
L
77-88
77
88
-11
H27/02
World Cup
Estonia
#58
W
79-69
79
69
+10
A01/03
World Cup
Czech Republic
#49
W
87-76
87
76
+11
H03/07
World Cup
Slovenia
#44
W
88-79
88
79
+9
A06/07
World Cup
Finland
#32
W
86-81
86
81
+5
A27/08
World Cup
France
#6
L
69-84
69
84
-15
H30/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-14
18-19
14-21
18-20
23-20
19-17
13-26
24-22
22-27
24-20
17-27
17-23
16-31
26-18
22-24
19-21
22-22
14-24
22-11
19-31
23-22
15-16
13-17
28-14
34-16
27-19
18-24
8-17
30-24
20-21
19-13
19-21
23-20
21-21
20-20
22-20
24-20
14-18
16-17
15-29
162.6Avg total
79.9Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)81.183.5164.6-2.450%
Season at home (4)79.085.5164.5-6.525%
Season away (4)83.281.5164.8+1.875%
Last 10 (10)79.982.7162.6-2.840%
Last 5 (5)81.877.8159.6+4.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)73.881.7155.5-7.923%
vs Similar ◀ (8)82.683.5166.1-0.950%
vs Weaker (9)80.078.3158.3+1.756%
This opponent (Finland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
FinlandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany
#1
L
86-98
86
98
-12
A12/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
89-92
89
92
-3
A14/09
EuroBasket
Hungary
#38
L
82-89
82
89
-7
A28/11
World Cup
France
#6
W
83-76
83
76
+7
H01/12
World Cup
Belgium
#83
W
71-66
71
66
+5
A27/02
World Cup
Belgium
#83
W
78-75
78
75
+3
H01/03
World Cup
Hungary
#38
W
85-77
85
77
+8
H03/07
World Cup
France
#6
L
69-98
69
98
-29
A06/07
World Cup
Sweden
#47
L
81-86
81
86
-5
H27/08
World Cup
Estonia
#58
W
96-67
96
67
+29
A30/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-30
21-31
26-20
13-17
15-24
19-24
22-21
33-23
17-31
22-29
22-15
21-14
20-19
17-26
19-16
27-15
12-24
20-13
16-19
23-10
17-22
17-15
22-15
22-23
13-18
35-25
26-15
11-19
16-31
14-18
17-28
22-21
20-23
21-21
20-20
20-22
21-21
17-14
28-11
30-21
164.4Avg total
82.0Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)80.679.2159.9+1.462%
Season at home (4)81.878.5160.2+3.275%
Season away (4)79.580.0159.5-0.550%
Last 10 (10)82.082.4164.4-0.450%
Last 5 (5)81.880.6162.4+1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)78.989.5168.3-10.627%
vs Similar ◀ (9)88.682.8171.3+5.856%
vs Weaker (6)88.275.7163.8+12.5100%
This opponent (Sweden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: -6.6-6.6Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +3.7+3.7
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: -6.6-6.6Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +3.7+3.7
SwedenFinland
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SwedenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lithuania
#4
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A03/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A06/09
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#49
L
46-47
46
47
-1
A28/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#44
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H01/12
World Cup
Estonia
#58
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H27/02
World Cup
Estonia
#58
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A01/03
World Cup
Czech Republic
#49
W
61-35
61
35
+26
H03/07
World Cup
Slovenia
#44
W
50-45
50
45
+5
A06/07
World Cup
Finland
#32
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A27/08
World Cup
France
#6
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H30/08
World Cup
84.5Avg total
43.6Scored
40.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.140.080.0+0.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.739.479.1+0.429%-
Last 30 away (16)40.440.580.9-0.156%-
Last 10 (10)43.640.984.5+2.750%-
Last 5 (5)46.239.485.6+6.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)38.141.579.6-3.531%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)44.842.887.5+2.038%-
vs Weaker (9)38.835.274.0+3.667%-
This opponent (Finland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
FinlandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany
#1
L
47-61
47
61
-14
A12/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A14/09
EuroBasket
Hungary
#38
L
39-60
39
60
-21
A28/11
World Cup
France
#6
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H01/12
World Cup
Belgium
#83
L
32-37
32
37
-5
A27/02
World Cup
Belgium
#83
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H01/03
World Cup
Hungary
#38
W
48-43
48
43
+5
H03/07
World Cup
France
#6
L
30-49
30
49
-19
A06/07
World Cup
Sweden
#47
L
41-44
41
44
-3
H27/08
World Cup
Estonia
#58
W
38-35
38
35
+3
A30/08
World Cup
83.9Avg total
38.0Scored
45.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.544.587.0-2.140%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.644.689.2+0.143%-
Last 30 away (16)40.644.585.1-3.938%-
Last 10 (10)38.045.983.9-7.920%-
Last 5 (5)38.241.679.8-3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)40.847.588.3-6.720%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)42.842.685.3+0.256%-
vs Weaker (6)46.240.286.3+6.067%-
This opponent (Sweden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Swedentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sweden: 76.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.318.1
49.9%
-36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.79.0
35.0%
-27.0
🏀 Free throws19.413.5
69.6%
-13.5
They take 62.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Finlandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Finland: 85.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 16% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.218.3
49.2%
-36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.611.9
36.5%
-35.7
🏀 Free throws17.713.4
75.7%
-13.4
They take 69.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sweden
LWWWWLLLLL
Finland
WLLWWWWLLL
#47
League position
#32
-6.0
Net rating
+3.5
104.0
Offensive rating
112.5
109.9
Defensive rating
108.9
51.0%
Effective FG%
51.8%
46.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
16.7%
Turnover %
15.4%
23.9%
Off. rebound %
32.6%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.25
35.0%
3-point %
36.5%
68.6%
Assist %
74.8%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Sweden   ■ Finland
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Sweden wins
2
Finland wins
DateGameScore
27/08/26Finland v Sweden81-86
27/08/25Sweden v Finland90-93
30/06/22Finland v Sweden85-69
25/11/21Sweden v Finland72-62
Swedenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/08/26HFrance69-84
27/08/26AFinland86-81
06/07/26ASlovenia88-79
03/07/26HCzech Republic87-76
01/03/26AEstonia79-69
27/02/26HEstonia77-88
01/12/25HSlovenia83-94
28/11/25ACzech Republic80-97
06/09/25ATurkey79-85
03/09/25ALithuania71-74
Finlandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/08/26AEstonia96-67
27/08/26HSweden81-86
06/07/26AFrance69-98
03/07/26HHungary85-77
01/03/26HBelgium78-75
27/02/26ABelgium71-66
01/12/25HFrance83-76
28/11/25AHungary82-89
14/09/25AGreece89-92
12/09/25AGermany86-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sweden
World Cup 2027
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL50%
HomeLLWL25%
AwayLWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %50%25%75%
Points / game81.179.083.2
Allowed / game83.585.581.5
Point differential-2.4-6.5+1.8
Avg total164.6164.5164.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%25%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Finland
World Cup 2027
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW62%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%75%50%
Points / game80.681.879.5
Allowed / game79.278.580.0
Point differential+1.4+3.2-0.5
Avg total159.9160.2159.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia880100%101.870.0+31.8
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Canada880100%100.981.1+19.8
4 Turkey880100%91.972.6+19.2
5 Croatia1211192%99.273.5+25.8
6 France87188%85.171.6+13.5
7 Poland87188%95.882.2+13.5
8 Germany87188%93.682.1+11.5
9 Dominican Republic65183%93.377.8+15.5
10 Mexico65183%93.781.8+11.8
11 Senegal97278%86.370.6+15.8
12 South Sudan97278%82.068.6+13.4
13 Ivory Coast97278%88.276.1+12.1
14 Cameroon97278%76.471.6+4.9
15 New Zealand86275%97.279.8+17.5
16 Japan86275%91.074.8+16.2
17 Argentina86275%87.271.5+15.8
18 Lebanon86275%89.674.6+15.0
19 Brazil86275%90.878.1+12.6
20 Uruguay86275%84.473.4+11.0
21 Serbia86275%87.178.1+9.0
22 Ukraine129375%83.275.9+7.3
23 Angola96367%86.873.0+13.8
24 Guinea96367%75.266.1+9.1
25 Mali96367%81.478.0+3.4
26 Jordan85362%85.571.0+14.5
27 Spain85362%90.178.8+11.4
28 Iran85362%74.967.8+7.1
29 Italy85362%83.076.9+6.1
30 China85362%84.581.6+2.9
31 Georgia85362%85.582.6+2.9
32 Finland85362%80.679.2+1.4
33 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
34 Romania148657%76.976.6+0.3
35 Nigeria95456%79.976.9+3.0
36 Tunisia95456%71.769.9+1.8
37 Portugal84450%83.879.5+4.2
38 Hungary126650%80.977.9+3.0
39 Greece84450%77.174.5+2.6
40 Latvia84450%83.481.2+2.1
41 Lithuania84450%85.984.6+1.2
42 Bahamas84450%93.292.1+1.1
43 Switzerland168850%73.172.8+0.3
44 Slovenia84450%84.083.8+0.2
45 Philippines84450%76.976.8+0.1
46 South Korea84450%78.479.1-0.8
47 Sweden84450%81.183.5-2.4
48 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
49 Czech Republic63350%81.386.2-4.8
50 Qatar84450%75.981.5-5.6
51 Montenegro84450%71.879.1-7.4
52 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
53 Egypt94544%75.973.1+2.8
54 Austria146843%83.084.9-1.9
55 Colombia73443%83.691.4-7.9
56 Netherlands125742%82.181.1+1.0
57 Bosnia & Herzegovina83538%78.177.1+1.0
58 Estonia83538%80.483.0-2.6
59 Saudi Arabia83538%76.479.6-3.2
60 Iceland83538%81.293.8-12.5
61 Cape Verde93633%75.681.3-5.8
62 Chinese Taipei62433%77.284.5-7.3
63 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
64 Jamaica62433%86.3102.8-16.5
65 D.R. Congo93633%68.885.7-16.9
66 Chile72529%71.380.6-9.3
67 Israel82625%79.283.5-4.2
68 Puerto Rico82625%85.990.2-4.4
69 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
70 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
71 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
72 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
73 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
74 Panama82625%75.488.9-13.5
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Syria82625%66.889.9-23.1
77 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
78 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
79 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
80 Venezuela61517%79.087.5-8.5
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium6060%71.880.0-8.2
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
87 Cuba6060%66.789.8-23.2
88 Nicaragua4040%72.095.5-23.5
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Cyprus6060%60.299.0-38.8
93 Guam6060%65.2104.5-39.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.
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