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Lithuania vs Sweden Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 03 Sep 2025
Tip-off: 13:30
Final 74-71
14-21 19-18 21-14 20-18
Position#4
Record3-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game89.2
Allowed / game80.5
vs
Position#21
Record1-3
FormWLLWL
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game86.0
EuropeEuroBasketRound 5· Nokia Arena
Other2025
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lithuania winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sweden winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLithuania
Date
Competition
Poland
#24
W
83-64
83
64
+19
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
59-65
59
65
-6
no box
A26/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
82-67
82
67
+15
80avg 89
A21/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
94-72
94
72
+22
103avg 89
H24/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
82-48
82
48
+34
86avg 89
A21/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
82-75
82
75
+7
78avg 89
H24/02
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
94-70
94
70
+24
95avg 89
A27/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
94-67
94
67
+27
98avg 89
H29/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
88-107
88
107
-19
88avg 89
H30/08
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
81-78
81
78
+3
76avg 89
A01/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-19
19-11
27-19
21-15
18-17
19-24
13-9
9-15
23-9
21-18
20-16
18-24
23-27
20-19
21-16
30-10
15-18
22-14
25-10
20-6
28-19
32-24
7-21
15-11
23-15
18-18
24-17
29-20
26-15
21-13
19-17
28-22
20-32
27-23
25-28
16-24
20-21
25-15
12-12
24-30
155.2Avg total
83.9Scored
71.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)89.280.5169.8+8.875%
Season at home (2)91.087.0178.0+4.050%
Season away (2)87.574.0161.5+13.5100%
Last 10 (10)83.971.3155.2+12.680%
Last 5 (5)87.879.4167.2+8.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)74.693.4168.0-18.80%
vs Similar (10)84.078.0162.0+6.060%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)86.368.9155.2+17.387%
This opponent (Sweden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SwedenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSweden
Date
Competition
Bulgaria
#13
W
84-70
84
70
+14
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
70-95
70
95
-25
no box
A25/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
W
73-72
73
72
+1
64avg 70
H22/11
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
L
61-80
61
80
-19
50avg 70
A25/11
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
L
77-81 OT
77
81
-4
73avg 70
A20/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
86-83 OT
86
83
+3
88avg 70
H23/02
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
L
90-93
90
93
-3
90avg 70
H27/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
83-105
83
105
-22
67avg 70
A29/08
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
78-59
78
59
+19
74avg 70
A30/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
81-87
81
87
-6
72avg 70
H01/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-22
21-21
12-12
22-15
24-27
13-23
20-25
13-20
26-18
11-19
18-19
18-16
19-23
12-18
17-19
13-20
22-25
17-9
15-24
16-12
20-14
12-19
21-18
19-21
21-26
27-23
24-23
18-21
17-27
25-32
24-25
17-21
19-13
16-17
26-17
17-12
15-18
19-22
31-24
16-23
160.8Avg total
78.3Scored
82.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.086.0169.0-3.025%
Season at home (2)85.590.0175.5-4.50%
Season away (2)80.582.0162.5-1.550%
Last 10 (10)78.382.5160.8-4.240%
Last 5 (5)83.685.4169.0-1.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)73.882.4156.2-8.527%
vs Similar (3)83.388.7172.0-5.30%
vs Weaker (16)82.673.6156.1+9.062%
This opponent (Lithuania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: +4.5+4.5Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +0.2+0.2Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: -1.2-1.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: +4.5+4.5Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +0.2+0.2Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: -1.2-1.2
LithuaniaSweden
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LithuaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Poland
#24
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H22/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A26/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
44-27
44
27
+17
A21/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H24/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A21/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
60-43
60
43
+17
H24/02
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A27/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H29/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
47-55
47
55
-8
H30/08
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A01/09
EuroBasket
80.7Avg total
43.6Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.739.181.8+3.663%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.640.984.4+2.756%-
Last 30 away (14)41.637.178.7+4.671%-
Last 10 (10)43.637.180.7+6.570%-
Last 5 (5)48.039.087.0+9.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)38.044.482.4-6.420%-
vs Similar (10)43.940.484.3+3.570%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)43.436.579.9+6.973%-
This opponent (Sweden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SwedenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bulgaria
#13
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H22/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
37-50
37
50
-13
A25/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
D
37-37
37
37
+0
H22/11
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A25/11
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A20/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H23/02
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H27/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
42-59
42
59
-17
A29/08
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A30/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H01/09
EuroBasket
80.1Avg total
38.5Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.638.577.1+0.147%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.037.074.0+0.040%-
Last 30 away (15)40.140.080.1+0.153%-
Last 10 (10)38.541.680.1-3.130%-
Last 5 (5)38.242.280.4-4.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)37.043.680.6-6.618%-
vs Similar (3)40.040.780.7-0.733%-
vs Weaker (16)39.434.673.9+4.869%-
This opponent (Lithuania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Lithuaniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lithuania: 83.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.721.2
56.2%
52.4%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.08.4
35.0%
33.4%25.2
🏀 Free throws22.615.7
69.5%
73.1%15.7
They take 61.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Swedentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sweden: 77.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.317.3
49.0%
52.4%34.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.89.3
34.7%
33.4%27.9
🏀 Free throws21.214.8
69.8%
73.1%14.8
They take 62.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Sep 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Lithuania
WLWWWWWWLW
Sweden
LWLLWLLWLW
#4
League position
#21
+17.3
Net rating
-5.7
112.7
Offensive rating
105.6
95.4
Defensive rating
111.3
54.8%
Effective FG%
50.3%
47.6%
Opp. effective FG%
48.8%
17.5%
Turnover %
16.4%
32.3%
Off. rebound %
27.0%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.34
35.0%
3-point %
34.7%
73.0%
Assist %
64.7%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence112.7 · 105.6Defence95.4 · 111.3Shooting54.8% · 50.3%3-point %35.0% · 34.7%Ball care17.5% · 16.4%Off. rebounds32.3% · 27.0%Free throws0.37 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Lithuania   ■ Sweden
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Lithuania wins
0
Sweden wins
No previous meetings.
Lithuanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/09/25AFinland81-78
30/08/25HGermany88-107
29/08/25HMontenegro94-67
27/08/25AGreat Britain94-70
24/02/25HEstonia82-75
21/02/25APoland82-48
24/11/24HNorth Macedonia94-72
21/11/24ANorth Macedonia82-67
26/02/24AEstonia59-65
22/02/24HPoland83-64
Swedenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/09/25HMontenegro81-87
30/08/25AGreat Britain78-59
29/08/25AGermany83-105
27/08/25HFinland90-93
23/02/25HMontenegro86-83 OT
20/02/25ABulgaria77-81 OT
25/11/24AGermany61-80
22/11/24HGermany73-72
25/02/24AMontenegro70-95
22/02/24HBulgaria84-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Lithuania
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLW75%
HomeWL50%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%50%100%
Points / game89.291.087.5
Allowed / game80.587.074.0
Point differential+8.8+4.0+13.5
Avg total169.8178.0161.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Sweden
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeLL0%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%0%50%
Points / game83.085.580.5
Allowed / game86.090.082.0
Point differential-3.0-4.5-1.5
Avg total169.0175.5162.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Germany440100%109.576.0+33.5
2 Turkey440100%91.067.2+23.8
3 Serbia440100%86.068.2+17.8
4 Greece43175%85.567.0+18.5
5 Finland43175%91.278.8+12.5
6 Lithuania43175%89.280.5+8.8
7 France43175%86.879.2+7.5
8 Italy43175%76.869.8+7.0
9 Israel43175%80.273.8+6.5
10 Poland43175%82.879.2+3.5
11 Spain42250%77.866.0+11.8
12 Slovenia42250%90.889.0+1.8
13 Latvia42250%75.877.2-1.5
14 Bosnia & Herzegovina42250%79.281.2-2.0
15 Georgia42250%72.875.5-2.8
16 Portugal52340%63.073.6-10.6
17 Sweden41325%83.086.0-3.0
18 Belgium41325%73.283.5-10.2
19 Estonia51420%70.479.4-9.0
20 Montenegro51420%75.691.0-15.4
21 Great Britain51420%70.896.8-26.0
22 Iceland4040%72.281.2-9.0
23 Czech Republic4040%65.881.2-15.5
24 Cyprus4040%60.292.8-32.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Lithuania1419212074
Sweden2118141871
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