PythiaBasketballBETA
NKLRound 15· Telsiu sporto arena
The NKL clash on 19 November 2026 sees Telsiai hosting Kretinga, with the model designating Telsiai as the clear favourite because of their 12-1 record, 90.5 points per game, and 73.6 allowed per game, while Kretinga sits 16th with a 2-11 record, 81.5 points per game and 90.7 allowed per game. Telsiai has gone 7-0 at home, averaging 95.0 points and conceding 69.7, and has won four of its last five games, including a 91-67 victory over Alytaus Patriotai and a 103-63 win over Silute, though they suffered a narrow 101-102 loss to Jurbarkas away. Kretinga has won only two of its last five outings, losing to Vytis VDU, Rytas, and BC Olimpas Palanga, and has a road record of 2-5 with 79.4 points scored and 87.7 allowed. Their head-to-head record stands at 7-3 in favour of Telsiai, the most recent meeting ending 89-75 for Telsiai on 13 January 2026. Pythia assigns a 92% chance to a Telsiai win and 8% to Kretinga, projecting a 93-76 score for a total of 169.2 points, with a 2% chance of overtime. The game will likely see Telsiai maintain its dominance, as reflected in the model's high confidence.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (13) | 90.5 | 73.6 | 164.2 | +16.9 | 92% |
| Season at home (7) | 95.0 | 69.7 | 164.7 | +25.3 | 100% |
| Season away (6) | 85.3 | 78.2 | 163.5 | +7.2 | 83% |
| Last 10 (10) | 91.3 | 73.8 | 165.1 | +17.5 | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 97.2 | 79.2 | 176.4 | +18.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 74.1 | 87.5 | 161.6 | -13.4 | 12% |
| vs Similar (9) | 79.9 | 81.3 | 161.2 | -1.4 | 56% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 92.1 | 75.5 | 167.6 | +16.5 | 85% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (13) | 81.5 | 90.7 | 172.2 | -9.2 | 15% |
| Season at home (6) | 84.0 | 94.2 | 178.2 | -10.2 | 0% |
| Season away (7) | 79.4 | 87.7 | 167.1 | -8.3 | 29% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.4 | 90.6 | 174.0 | -7.2 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.4 | 91.2 | 174.6 | -7.8 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (17) | 79.9 | 91.9 | 171.8 | -12.0 | 18% |
| vs Similar (10) | 83.9 | 81.7 | 165.6 | +2.2 | 60% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 97.3 | 90.7 | 188.0 | +6.7 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.1 | 39.7 | 80.9 | +1.4 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 41.4 | 39.7 | 81.1 | +1.7 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 40.9 | 39.8 | 80.7 | +1.1 | 47% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 45.7 | 36.2 | 81.9 | +9.5 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 48.6 | 37.6 | 86.2 | +11.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 37.0 | 44.8 | 81.8 | -7.8 | 12% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 38.8 | 39.3 | 78.1 | -0.6 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 45.3 | 36.9 | 82.2 | +8.4 | 69% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.9 | 42.9 | 82.8 | -3.0 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 41.3 | 42.6 | 83.9 | -1.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 38.7 | 43.2 | 81.9 | -4.5 | 19% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.6 | 46.1 | 86.7 | -5.5 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.6 | 46.4 | 86.0 | -6.8 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (17) | 37.9 | 45.3 | 83.2 | -7.4 | 12% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 40.1 | 39.0 | 79.1 | +1.1 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 50.7 | 42.3 | 93.0 | +8.3 | 100% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 38.7 | 23.4 | 54.5% | 46.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.4 | 9.0 | 31.3% | 27.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 20.5 | 14.4 | 67.1% | 14.4 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 35.6 | 19.3 | 54.5% | 38.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.3 | 8.5 | 31.3% | 25.5 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 23.0 | 14.8 | 67.1% | 14.8 |
Telsiai| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 13/01/26 | Kretinga v Telsiai | 75-89 |
| 13/11/25 | Telsiai v Kretinga | 86-80 |
| 28/11/24 | Telsiai v Kretinga | 91-77 |
| 18/11/24 | Kretinga v Telsiai | 66-93 |
| 19/03/24 | Telsiai v Kretinga | 71-73 |
| 16/03/24 | Kretinga v Telsiai | 83-81 OT |
| 13/03/24 | Telsiai v Kretinga | 92-100 OT |
| 21/12/23 | Kretinga v Telsiai | 67-95 |
| 31/10/23 | Telsiai v Kretinga | 96-69 |
| 24/11/22 | Telsiai v Kretinga | 92-71 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Alytaus Patriotai | 91-67 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Jurbarkas | 101-102 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Silute | 103-63 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Vytis VDU | 91-88 |
| 29/10/26 | H | Kauno Atletas | 100-76 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Suduva-Mantinga | 71-69 |
| 22/10/26 | H | Ukmerges Stekas | 104-70 |
| 17/10/26 | H | Vilkaviskis | 94-70 |
| 15/10/26 | A | Neptunas 2 | 85-72 |
| 10/10/26 | A | Kedainiai BC | 73-61 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Vytis VDU | 98-107 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Rytas 2 | 79-91 |
| 05/11/26 | H | BC Olimpas Palanga | 86-100 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Omega-Tauras | 75-72 |
| 29/10/26 | H | Jurbarkas | 79-86 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Zalgiris Kaunas 2 | 85-101 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Alytaus Patriotai | 70-90 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Kauno Atletas | 84-72 |
| 15/10/26 | H | Suduva-Mantinga | 83-88 |
| 10/10/26 | H | Ukmerges Stekas | 95-99 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWLW | 92% |
| Home | WWWWW | 100% |
| Away | WWWWL | 83% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 7 | 6 |
| Win % | 92% | 100% | 83% |
| Points / game | 90.5 | 95.0 | 85.3 |
| Allowed / game | 73.6 | 69.7 | 78.2 |
| Point differential | +16.9 | +25.3 | +7.2 |
| Avg total | 164.2 | 164.7 | 163.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 77% | 100% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 67% (3) | - | 67% (3) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLLL | 15% |
| Home | LLLLL | 0% |
| Away | WLWLL | 29% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 6 | 7 |
| Win % | 15% | 0% | 29% |
| Points / game | 81.5 | 84.0 | 79.4 |
| Allowed / game | 90.7 | 94.2 | 87.7 |
| Point differential | -9.2 | -10.2 | -8.3 |
| Avg total | 172.2 | 178.2 | 167.1 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 8% | 0% | 14% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 33% (3) | 0% (2) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Telsiai | 13 | 12 | 1 | 92% | 90.5 | 73.6 | +16.9 |
| 2 | Jurbarkas | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 88.6 | 78.3 | +10.3 |
| 3 |  BC Olimpas Palanga | 14 | 11 | 3 | 79% | 96.3 | 84.6 | +11.6 |
| 4 |  Suduva-Mantinga | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 91.5 | 77.8 | +13.8 |
| 5 |  Vytis VDU | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 96.1 | 89.1 | +7.0 |
| 6 |  Neptunas 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 71% | 78.4 | 74.1 | +4.2 |
| 7 |  Silute | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | 84.3 | 82.2 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Alytaus Patriotai | 14 | 8 | 6 | 57% | 83.8 | 84.9 | -1.1 |
| 9 | Omega-Tauras | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 89.4 | 85.9 | +3.4 |
| 10 | Plunges Olimpas | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 83.1 | 81.1 | +2.1 |
| 11 |  Vilkaviskis | 14 | 6 | 8 | 43% | 83.1 | 86.1 | -3.0 |
| 12 |  Zalgiris Kaunas 2 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 94.2 | 96.8 | -2.7 |
| 13 | Ukmerges Stekas | 14 | 5 | 9 | 36% | 78.9 | 88.1 | -9.2 |
| 14 | Kedainiai BC | 14 | 4 | 10 | 29% | 76.8 | 85.0 | -8.2 |
| 15 |  Mazeikiai | 14 | 3 | 11 | 21% | 78.9 | 88.9 | -10.0 |
| 16 | Kretinga | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15% | 81.5 | 90.7 | -9.2 |
| 17 |  Kauno Atletas | 14 | 2 | 12 | 14% | 79.1 | 94.4 | -15.3 |
| 18 |  Rytas 2 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 7% | 77.1 | 86.9 | -9.7 |
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