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Tobol Kostanay 2 vs Aktobe Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 10 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 61-110
15-27 22-23 6-32 18-28
Position#12
Record4-19
FormLLLLL
Points / game68.7
Allowed / game82.0
vs
Aktobe 🏆
Kazakhstan
Position#4
Record17-4
FormLLLWW
Points / game82.4
Allowed / game66.2
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tobol Kostanay 2 winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aktobe winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Tobol Kostanay 2KazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 Form2
Date
Competition
Atyrau 2
#6
L
63-69
63
69
-6
no box
A25/11
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
86-49
86
49
+37
no box
A18/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
66-93
66
93
-27
no box
H19/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
68-72 OT
68
72
-4
64avg 53
A20/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
88-56
88
56
+32
86avg 53
H21/01
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
45-70
45
70
-25
26avg 53
A02/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
51-85
51
85
-34
36avg 53
H03/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
63-85
63
85
-22
no box
A04/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
86-92
86
92
-6
71avg 53
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
46-95
46
95
-49
28avg 53
A09/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-17
15-13
21-18
9-21
23-6
24-4
22-21
17-18
20-20
13-30
27-27
6-16
18-19
22-13
17-13
8-20
25-19
23-15
22-9
18-13
4-29
9-20
9-11
23-10
20-22
14-30
17-21
0-12
19-18
19-18
12-28
13-21
21-21
17-24
28-26
20-21
8-32
13-19
8-23
17-21
142.8Avg total
66.2Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)68.782.0150.7-13.317%
Season at home (10)70.680.7151.3-10.130%
Season away (13)67.282.9150.2-15.78%
Last 10 (10)66.276.6142.8-10.420%
Last 5 (5)58.285.4143.6-27.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)63.186.9149.9-23.80%
vs Similar (8)68.674.2142.9-5.625%
vs Weaker (4)79.857.5137.2+22.275%
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AktobeKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAktobe
Date
Competition
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
81-59
81
59
+22
81avg 75
A07/12
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
95-58
95
58
+37
no box
H16/01
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
82-79 OT
82
79
+3
no box
A17/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
112-52
112
52
+60
no box
H18/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
86-52
86
52
+34
no box
A19/01
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
57-81
57
81
-24
46avg 75
H11/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
58-66
58
66
-8
44avg 75
H12/02
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
54-61
54
61
-7
50avg 75
A13/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
W
77-70
77
70
+7
74avg 75
A14/02
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
95-46
95
46
+49
93avg 75
H09/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-15
17-12
24-15
19-17
19-10
32-11
22-21
22-16
18-13
14-22
15-15
29-26
35-15
27-2
26-23
24-12
16-17
28-13
23-8
19-14
14-23
12-16
18-25
13-17
9-19
10-10
28-17
11-20
13-14
18-20
15-17
8-10
15-20
18-20
22-20
22-10
32-8
19-13
23-8
21-17
142.1Avg total
79.7Scored
62.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)82.466.2148.7+16.281%
Season at home (11)84.865.2150.0+19.682%
Season away (10)79.867.4147.2+12.480%
Last 10 (10)79.762.4142.1+17.370%
Last 5 (5)68.264.8133.0+3.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)57.564.6122.2-7.123%
vs Similar (2)93.086.5179.5+6.5100%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)87.365.1152.5+22.287%
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay 2) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +5.6+5.6Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: +4.7+4.7Q4Q4: -4.2-4.2Q4: +2.9+2.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +5.6+5.6Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: +4.7+4.7Q4Q4: -4.2-4.2Q4: +2.9+2.9
Tobol Kostanay 2Aktobe
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Tobol Kostanay 2Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atyrau 2
#6
W
33-30
33
30
+3
A25/11
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
47-10
47
10
+37
A18/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H19/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A20/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H21/01
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
13-49
13
49
-36
A02/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
34-52
34
52
-18
H03/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A04/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-45
38
45
-7
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
21-51
21
51
-30
A09/03
Higher League
73.4Avg total
34.5Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.442.376.7-7.930%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.440.977.3-4.436%-
Last 30 away (16)32.643.576.1-10.925%-
Last 10 (10)34.538.973.4-4.450%-
Last 5 (5)28.846.675.4-17.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)31.846.878.6-15.117%-
vs Similar (8)36.139.875.9-3.638%-
vs Weaker (4)42.826.869.5+16.075%-
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AktobeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
38-27
38
27
+11
A07/12
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
51-21
51
21
+30
H16/01
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A17/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
62-17
62
17
+45
H18/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
44-30
44
30
+14
A19/01
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
26-39
26
39
-13
H11/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
19-29
19
29
-10
H12/02
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A13/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/02
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
51-21
51
21
+30
H09/03
Higher League
68.0Avg total
38.7Scored
29.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (28)39.232.771.9+6.561%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.131.271.4+8.969%-
Last 30 away (12)37.934.672.5+3.350%-
Last 10 (10)38.729.368.0+9.450%-
Last 5 (5)32.032.664.6-0.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)31.236.367.5-5.127%-
vs Similar (2)42.541.083.5+1.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)44.628.973.5+15.787%-
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay 2) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tobol Kostanay 2their own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tobol Kostanay 2: 64.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.7 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.5 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.714.8
40.5%
49.5%29.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.38.2
27.8%
28.5%24.5
🏀 Free throws15.59.8
63.4%
63.9%9.8
They take 66.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aktobetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aktobe: 95.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.0 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.027.0
58.7%
49.5%54.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.010.0
31.2%
28.5%30.0
🏀 Free throws21.011.0
52.4%
63.9%11.0
They take 78.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 6/1 games with a box score before 10 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tobol Kostanay 2
LLLLLWLLWL
Aktobe
WWLLLWWWWW
#12
League position
#4
-18.7
Net rating
+65.3
83.7
Offensive rating
126.6
102.4
Defensive rating
61.3
41.0%
Effective FG%
53.8%
45.2%
Opp. effective FG%
33.6%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.27
27.8%
3-point %
31.2%
62.3%
Assist %
59.5%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence83.7 · 126.6Defence102.4 · 61.3Shooting41.0% · 53.8%3-point %27.8% · 31.2%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.23 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)20% · 70%
■ Tobol Kostanay 2   ■ Aktobe
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Tobol Kostanay 2 wins
1
Aktobe wins
DateGameScore
09/03/26Aktobe v Tobol Kostanay 295-46
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/26AAktobe46-95
05/03/26HCHAMP1ON86-92
04/03/26ABC Almaty 263-85
03/03/26HCHAMP1ON51-85
02/03/26ABC Almaty 245-70
21/01/26HArlans88-56
20/01/26AAiRom68-72 OT
19/01/26HArlans66-93
18/01/26AAiRom86-49
25/11/25AAtyrau 263-69
Aktobelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/26HTobol Kostanay 295-46
14/02/26AShymkent77-70
13/02/26ATuran54-61
12/02/26HShymkent58-66
11/02/26HTuran57-81
19/01/26APavlodar86-52
18/01/26HPavlodar112-52
17/01/26AKaraganda82-79 OT
16/01/26HKaraganda95-58
07/12/25ACHAMP1ON81-59

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tobol Kostanay 2
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL17%
HomeWLWLL30%
AwayWLLLL8%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231013
Win %17%30%8%
Points / game68.770.667.2
Allowed / game82.080.782.9
Point differential-13.3-10.1-15.7
Avg total150.7151.3150.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%30%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (4)-0% (4)
Overtime %9%0%15%
Aktobe
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW81%
HomeWWLLW82%
AwayWWWLW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211110
Win %81%82%80%
Points / game82.484.879.8
Allowed / game66.265.267.4
Point differential+16.2+19.6+12.4
Avg total148.7150.0147.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%55%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (1)100% (3)
Overtime %5%0%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan21210100%88.059.6+28.3
2 Shymkent2219386%94.969.1+25.7
3 Aktobe2117481%82.466.2+16.2
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2015575%82.861.0+21.8
5 Atyrau 22115671%77.768.9+8.9
6 BC Almaty 22012860%80.873.3+7.4
7 ChelSU Kostanay2213959%77.379.5-2.1
8 CHAMP1ON20101050%73.872.8+0.9
9 Karaganda2091145%80.278.0+2.2
10 Tigers-KazATU1971237%66.977.2-10.3
11 Arlans2171433%75.380.3-5.0
12 AiRom2041620%64.778.7-13.9
13 Tobol Kostanay 22341917%68.782.0-13.3
14 Pavlodar2021810%53.389.8-36.5
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2221215%53.083.6-30.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Tobol Kostanay 2152261861
Aktobe27233228110
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