Toyama hosts Osaka on 12 November 2026 in the B League, and the Pythia model names Toyama the clear favourite, giving them an 88% chance to win largely because their 8-7 record and 82.9 points per game contrast sharply with Osaka's 1-14 record and 69.6 points per game. Toyama's season shows 8 wins and 7 losses, averaging 82.9 points and allowing 87.7, while Osaka has 1 win and 14 losses, scoring 69.6 and conceding 90.9. At home, Toyama is 2-5, averaging 72.9 points and allowing 85.9, and in their last five they went 2-3, with a recent 83-78 away win over Chiba, a 75-108 loss to Shimane, and a 80-93 defeat at home to Diamond Dolphins. Osaka's road record is 1-7, averaging 73.9 points and allowing 93.8, and they have lost all five of their most recent games, including 94-106 to Chiba, 68-86 to Ibaraki Robots, and 60-102 to Gunma. In their 10 meetings, Osaka has won eight, with the last encounter ending 93-76 in Toyama's favour. Pythia projects a 91-77 score, 168.1 total points, a 12.5-point home line with a 52% chance of covering, and a 49% probability of the over on the 168.5 total, with a 3% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Osaka can halt its losing streak and Toyama can maintain its offensive output.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Toyama winWon
87.6%fair 1.14
Best odds1.18
Implied79.3%
Edge+8.3pp
Osaka winLost
12.4%fair 8.04
Best odds5.50
Implied20.7%
Edge-8.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Toyama) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Over 163.5
Over 163.5
60.8%
@ 1.50-0.8pp
Under 163.5
39.2%
@ 2.50+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.40
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 168.75 · main lineActual: Under 168.75
Over 168.75
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under 168.75
no forecast
@ 1.79
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 173.5Actual: Under 173.5
Over 173.5
36.7%
@ 2.40-2.3pp
Under 173.5
63.3%
@ 1.53+2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Betano
2.35
Under
BetVictor
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Toyama total 85.5Actual: Toyama over 85.5
Over 85.5
69.9%
@ 1.44+6.4pp
Under 85.5
30.1%
@ 2.55-6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.39
Under
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.37
Toyama total 89.5 · main lineActual: Toyama over 89.5
Over 89.5
54.7%
@ 1.85+4.7pp
Under 89.5
45.3%
@ 1.86-4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.73
Under
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.71
Toyama total 93.5Actual: Toyama under 93.5
Over 93.5
38.7%
@ 2.60+2.8pp
Under 93.5
61.3%
@ 1.42-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.38
Osaka total 75Actual: Osaka over 75
Over 75
59.4%
Under 75
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osaka total 79 · main lineActual: Osaka under 79
Over 79
43.1%
@ 1.83-6.6pp
Under 79
56.9%
@ 1.83+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.74
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.70
Osaka total 83Actual: Osaka under 83
Over 83
28.1%
Under 83
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Toyama -13Actual: Toyama -13
TOYA -13
50.5%
@ 2.28+9.9pp
OSAK +13
49.5%
@ 1.80-9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
TOYA
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathon Be
1.92
SBO
1.91
Bet365
1.86
OSAK
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.75
Marathon Be
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Spread Toyama -10 · main lineActual: Toyama -10
TOYA -10
61.6%
@ 1.95+12.3pp
OSAK +10
38.4%
@ 2.22-12.3pp
Best 5 market prices
TOYA
SBO
1.95
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.82
Marathon Be
1.78
Bet365
1.58
OSAK
Bet365
2.22
Marathon Be
1.87
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.75
Spread Toyama -7Actual: Toyama -7
TOYA -7
71.9%
@ 1.58+13.4pp
OSAK +7
28.1%
@ 2.40-13.4pp
Best 5 market prices
TOYA
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.52
Marathon Be
1.52
OSAK
Bet365
2.40
Pinnacle
2.23
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
ToyamaOsaka
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Toyama -7
71.9%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.52
Marathon Bet
1.52
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Toyama -3.5
81.4%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Toyama (regulation)
85.9%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Marathon Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Toyama -5.5
75.8%
1.38
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
1xBet
1.32
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Toyama -4.5
78.7%
1.33
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
1xBet
1.28
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Toyama -6.5
72.8%
1.45
Betano
1.50
Marathon Bet
1.49
BetVictor
1.48
Bet365
1.41
1xBet
1.39
+9.5pp
Won
Toyama win
87.6%
1.16
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.18
WilliamHill
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Marathon Bet
1.16
+8.3pp
Won
Osaka under 85.5
78.8%
1.28
Bet365
1.29
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Osaka under 84.5
75.9%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Osaka under 83.5
72.8%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.35
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Toyama over 78.5
88.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Toyama -2.5
83.5%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Toyama over 83.5
76.5%
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Toyama over 82.5
79.4%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Toyama over 84.5
73.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Toyama over 72.5
96.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Toyama over 76.5
92.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Toyama over 70.5
97.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Toyama -1.5
86.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Osaka under 89.5
87.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Toyama over 71.5
97.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Toyama over 79.5
86.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Toyama over 74.5
94.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Toyama over 73.5
95.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Toyama over 77.5
90.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Osaka under 87.5
83.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Toyama over 75.5
93.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Osaka under 95.5
95.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Toyama +8.5
96.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Osaka under 97.5
96.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Toyama over 80.5
84.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Osaka under 91.5
91.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Osaka under 88.5
86.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Osaka under 93.5
93.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Osaka under 98.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Osaka under 99.5
97.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Toyama +7.5
95.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Toyama +13.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Toyama +3.5
91.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Toyama +12.5
98.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Under 193.5
93.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Toyama under 99.5
81.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 183.5
82.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Over 143.5
93.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 188.5
89.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Osaka +20.5
74.3%
1.29
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Toyama +2.5
90.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Under 178.5
74.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Osaka +19.5
71.4%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Toyama under 98.5
78.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Over 148.5
88.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Over 153.5
81.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Osaka +22.5
79.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Toyama under 96.5
72.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Over 158.5
72.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Osaka over 69.5
78.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Osaka +21.5
77.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Osaka over 71.5
71.8%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
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They take 68.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Toyamatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Toyama: 85.8 points a game allowed
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.8 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.6 points a game
49%
34%
17%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
35.5
17.6
49.6%
53.6%
35.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
29.4
10.6
36.1%
32.9%
31.8
🏀Free throws
25.7
18.8
73.2%
73.8%
18.8
Their opponents take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Osakatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Osaka: 94.3 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.6 points a game
49%
34%
17%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.5
22.1
60.5%
53.6%
44.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
30.6
12.0
39.2%
32.9%
36.0
🏀Free throws
18.5
14.1
76.2%
73.8%
14.1
Their opponents take 67.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 67.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 66.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Toyamatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Toyama: 84.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.9 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.6 points a game
49%
34%
17%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
32.6
17.6
54.0%
53.6%
35.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
32.5
10.6
32.7%
32.9%
31.9
🏀Free throws
24.9
17.5
70.4%
73.8%
17.5
Their opponents take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Osakatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Osaka: 87.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.5 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.6 points a game
49%
34%
17%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
39.0
22.2
57.0%
53.6%
44.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.6
9.4
35.3%
32.9%
28.1
🏀Free throws
19.8
14.8
74.9%
73.8%
14.8
Their opponents take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Toyama
LLWWLWWLWW
Osaka
LLLLLLLLLL
#11
League position
#26
-2.9
Net rating
-31.9
90.8
Offensive rating
77.5
93.7
Defensive rating
109.4
45.9%
Effective FG%
44.3%
51.6%
Opp. effective FG%
59.8%
13.0%
Turnover %
15.6%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.21
28.6%
3-point %
29.2%
71.8%
Assist %
62.9%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
0%
Profile
■ Toyama■ Osaka
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.
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A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.