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Troy vs South Alabama Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 28 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 00:00
Scheduled
Position#325
Record1-3
FormLLLWL
Points / game66.0
Allowed / game78.0
vs
Position#259
Record2-3
FormLWLWL
Points / game74.6
Allowed / game76.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Troy v South Alabama
27 Jan 2027
TROY v SOUT
upcoming
03 Jan 2026
TROY59
SOUT49
25 Jan 2025
TROY65
SOUT55
27 Jan 2024
TROY83
SOUT79
09 Feb 2023
TROY61
SOUT57
29 Jan 2022
TROY77
SOUT68
13 Feb 2021
TROY51
SOUT58
07 Feb 2020
TROY66
SOUT70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Troy win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
South Alabama win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Alabama
#120
L
54-65
54
65
-11
A21/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
78-59
78
59
+19
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
78-70
78
70
+8
H08/03
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
77-61
77
61
+16
H09/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
47-76
47
76
-29
A19/03
NCAA
UMass
#168
L
60-71
60
71
-11
H03/11
NCAA
Florida State
#233
L
68-91
68
91
-23
A07/11
NCAA
Loyola Marymount
#300
W
74-69 OT
74
69
+5
H11/11
NCAA
NC State
#44
L
62-81
62
81
-19
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-33
28-32
27-23
51-36
37-29
43-36
41-28
37-42
38-25
39-36
25-41
22-35
28-38
32-33
26-37
42-54
29-37
36-28
27-36
35-45
138.6Avg total
67.8Scored
70.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)66.078.0144.0-12.025%
Season at home (2)67.070.0137.0-3.050%
Season away (2)65.086.0151.0-21.00%
Last 10 (10)67.870.8138.6-3.050%
Last 5 (5)62.277.6139.8-15.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)65.076.2141.2-11.233%
vs Similar (9)72.071.3143.3+0.756%
vs Weaker (15)80.368.7148.9+11.680%
This opponent (South Alabama) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South AlabamaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas State
#125
L
82-90 OT
82
90
-8
H20/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
65-54
65
54
+11
H21/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
89-54
89
54
+35
H26/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
55-68
55
68
-13
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
85-94
85
94
-9
H07/03
NCAA
Ohio
#170
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H03/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#216
W
83-80 OT
83
80
+3
H06/11
NCAA
UCF Knights
#73
L
69-76
69
76
-7
A11/11
NCAA
Loyola Marymount
#300
W
79-72
79
72
+7
H13/11
NCAA
North Texas
#100
L
65-66
65
66
-1
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
33-40
42-35
33-26
32-28
42-14
47-40
29-35
26-33
43-40
42-54
35-34
42-52
23-32
43-34
34-32
35-44
39-34
40-38
29-33
36-33
148.9Avg total
74.9Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)74.676.0150.6-1.440%
Season at home (3)79.779.3159.0+0.367%
Season away (2)67.071.0138.0-4.00%
Last 10 (10)74.974.0148.9+0.940%
Last 5 (5)74.676.0150.6-1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)72.277.0149.2-4.840%
vs Similar (18)73.673.7147.3-0.144%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)75.864.7140.5+11.283%
This opponent (Troy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -2.3-2.31st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: -0.6-0.6
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -2.3-2.31st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: -0.6-0.6
TroySouth Alabama
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Alabama
#120
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A21/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
27-23
27
23
+4
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
41-28
41
28
+13
H08/03
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
38-25
38
25
+13
H09/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A19/03
NCAA
UMass
#168
L
28-38
28
38
-10
H03/11
NCAA
Florida State
#233
L
26-37
26
37
-11
A07/11
NCAA
Loyola Marymount
#300
L
29-37
29
37
-8
H11/11
NCAA
NC State
#44
L
27-36
27
36
-9
A14/11
NCAA
63.1Avg total
30.4Scored
32.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.132.366.4+1.947%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.829.365.1+6.475%-
Last 30 away (14)32.335.667.9-3.414%-
Last 10 (10)30.432.763.1-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)27.037.864.8-10.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)28.336.364.7-8.017%-
vs Similar (9)33.434.768.1-1.244%-
vs Weaker (15)36.929.266.1+7.760%-
This opponent (South Alabama) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South AlabamaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas State
#125
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H20/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H21/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
42-14
42
14
+28
H26/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H07/03
NCAA
Ohio
#170
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H03/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#216
L
23-32
23
32
-9
H06/11
NCAA
UCF Knights
#73
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A11/11
NCAA
Loyola Marymount
#300
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H13/11
NCAA
North Texas
#100
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A14/11
NCAA
66.0Avg total
34.0Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.132.565.7+0.650%-
Last 30 at home (17)33.430.664.0+2.859%-
Last 30 away (13)32.835.167.8-2.338%-
Last 10 (10)34.032.066.0+2.060%-
Last 5 (5)32.033.065.0-1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)31.233.464.6-2.240%-
vs Similar (18)33.133.466.6-0.344%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)34.229.864.0+4.367%-
This opponent (Troy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Troy wins
5
South Alabama wins
DateGameScore
21/02/26South Alabama v Troy65-54
03/01/26Troy v South Alabama59-49
25/01/25Troy v South Alabama65-55
18/01/25South Alabama v Troy64-63
27/01/24Troy v South Alabama83-79
19/01/24South Alabama v Troy74-71
10/02/23Troy v South Alabama61-57
28/01/23South Alabama v Troy77-60
30/01/22Troy v South Alabama77-68
28/01/22South Alabama v Troy82-63
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ANC State62-81
11/11/26HLoyola Marymount74-69 OT
07/11/26AFlorida State68-91
03/11/26HUMass60-71
19/03/26ANebraska47-76
09/03/26HGeorgia Southern77-61
08/03/26HSouthern Miss78-70
28/02/26HLouisiana Monroe80-65
25/02/26HLouisiana Lafayette78-59
21/02/26ASouth Alabama54-65
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ANorth Texas65-66
13/11/26HLoyola Marymount79-72
11/11/26AUCF Knights69-76
06/11/26HJacksonville State83-80 OT
03/11/26HOhio77-86
07/03/26HGeorgia Southern85-94
28/02/26HSouthern Miss55-68
26/02/26HLouisiana Monroe89-54
21/02/26HTroy65-54
20/02/26HTexas State82-90 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Troy
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game66.067.065.0
Allowed / game78.070.086.0
Point differential-12.0-3.0-21.0
Avg total144.0137.0151.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %25%50%0%
South Alabama
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL40%
HomeLWW67%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %40%67%0%
Points / game74.679.767.0
Allowed / game76.079.371.0
Point differential-1.4+0.3-4.0
Avg total150.6159.0138.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %20%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State440100%89.862.8+27.0
2 Old Dominion550100%77.058.4+18.6
3 Appalachian State42250%69.060.2+8.8
4 Southern Miss42250%72.070.8+1.2
5 Arkansas State42250%80.279.5+0.8
6 Coastal Carolina42250%72.573.5-1.0
7 Georgia State52340%84.272.4+11.8
8 South Alabama52340%74.676.0-1.4
9 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
10 James Madison31233%76.078.7-2.7
11 Marshall41325%78.276.0+2.2
12 Georgia Southern41325%77.882.8-5.0
13 Troy41325%66.078.0-12.0
14 Louisiana Monroe61517%75.087.7-12.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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