Udine hosts Olimpia Milano on 15 November 2026 in the Lega Basket Serie A, with the model favouring the Milan side and predicting a 64% chance of victory over Udine's 36% probability; the projected score is 81-85 and the total is 165.2 points. Udine, 4-3 overall with 81.3 points per game and 80.3 allowed, sits seventh in the league and is 2-1 at home, averaging 79.7 points and 71.3 allowed; their last five games yielded two wins and three losses, including a 84-81 away win over Varese, a 86-77 home win over Tortona and a 75-81 loss to Maxima Roma. Olimpia Milano, 5-2 overall with 90.9 points per game and 82.7 allowed, occupies third place and is 2-1 on the road, averaging 88.3 points and 79.7 allowed; their recent five games also record two wins and three losses, highlighted by an 88-86 home win over Trento, a 73-84 home loss to Valencia and a 95-82 away win over Cantu. In head-to-head history, Milano leads 3-1, though Udine last defeated them 86-83 on 29 March 2026. The home team faces a 7.5-point line, with a 61% chance of covering, while the over on the 165.5 line carries a 49% probability, and the game has a 5% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Udine win
37.6%fair 2.66
Best odds3.10
Implied30.2%
Edge+7.4pp
Olimpia Milano win
62.4%fair 1.60
Best odds1.42
Implied69.8%
Edge-7.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Udine) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 165 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 167.5.
Over/Under 162.5
Over 162.5
55.5%
@ 1.59-3.4pp
Under 162.5
44.5%
@ 2.30+3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
WilliamHill
1.57
Marathon Be
1.52
Under
WilliamHill
2.30
Marathon Be
2.27
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.12
Over/Under 167.5 · main line
Over 167.5
43.6%
@ 1.98-6.8pp
Under 167.5
56.4%
@ 1.91+6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Marathon Be
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Over/Under 172.5
Over 172.5
32.4%
@ 2.55-4.1pp
Under 172.5
67.6%
@ 1.50+4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.52
Marathon Be
2.29
Under
Marathon Be
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Udine total 75.5
Over 75.5
68.5%
@ 1.41+2.8pp
Under 75.5
31.5%
@ 2.70-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Under
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.44
Udine total 79.5 · main line
Over 79.5
54.2%
@ 1.83+0.6pp
Under 79.5
45.8%
@ 2.02-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.75
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.71
1xBet
1.58
Under
Marathon Be
2.02
WilliamHill
2.00
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.83
Udine total 83.5
Over 83.5
39.5%
@ 2.50+1.2pp
Under 83.5
60.5%
@ 1.50-1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.09
Under
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Olimpia Milano total 82.5
Over 82.5
57.2%
@ 1.42-6.5pp
Under 82.5
42.8%
@ 2.47+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.37
Under
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.42
Olimpia Milano total 86.5 · main line
Over 86.5
41.7%
@ 1.91-8.1pp
Under 86.5
58.3%
@ 1.88+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Olimpia Milano total 90.5
Over 90.5
27.4%
@ 2.52-9.3pp
Under 90.5
72.6%
@ 1.42+9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
1xBet
2.34
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Udine's side (positive = Udine win). Pythia's expected margin is -3.6; Udine win by 1+ in 33% of simulations.
Spread Udine +3
UDI +3
46.1%
@ 2.50+7.2pp
MIL -3
53.9%
@ 1.55-7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UDI
Bet365
2.50
Marathon Be
2.29
MIL
Marathon Be
1.55
Bet365
1.50
Spread Udine +6 · main line
UDI +6
57.6%
@ 1.90+6.8pp
MIL -6
42.4%
@ 1.92-6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
UDI
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
MIL
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.80
Spread Udine +9
UDI +9
68.2%
@ 1.58+9.1pp
MIL -9
31.8%
@ 2.28-9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
UDI
Bet365
1.58
Marathon Be
1.53
MIL
Marathon Be
2.28
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
UdineOlimpia Milano
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Udine) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
UDI win
41.2%
@ 2.40+1.9pp
MIL win
58.8%
@ 1.55-1.9pp
2nd half Spread Udine +2.5 · main line
UDI +2.5
52.2%
@ 1.91+2.2pp
MIL -2.5
47.8%
@ 1.87-2.2pp
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main line
Over
51.7%
@ 1.87+0.1pp
Under
48.3%
@ 1.93-0.1pp
Udine 2nd half total 40 · main line
Over
49.9%
@ 1.86+0.2pp
Under
50.1%
@ 1.88-0.2pp
Olimpia Milano 2nd half total 42.5 · main line
Over
47.1%
@ 1.87-2.9pp
Under
52.9%
@ 1.90+2.9pp
2nd half Over/Under 80.25
Over
55.2%
@ 1.72+2.6pp
Under
44.8%
@ 1.91-2.6pp
2nd half Over/Under 82.75
Over
47.9%
@ 1.83-1.8pp
Under
52.1%
@ 1.81+1.8pp
2nd half Spread Udine +1.5
UDI +1.5
47.9%
@ 1.91+1.7pp
MIL -1.5
52.1%
@ 1.64-1.7pp
2nd half Spread Udine +3.5
UDI +3.5
56.1%
@ 1.83+4.8pp
MIL -3.5
43.9%
@ 1.92-4.8pp
2nd half Over/Under 84.5
Over
40.7%
@ 1.98-3.5pp
Under
59.3%
@ 1.57+3.5pp
2nd half Spread Udine +4.5
UDI +4.5
60.2%
@ 1.59+4.8pp
MIL -4.5
39.8%
@ 1.98-4.8pp
2nd half Spread Udine +5.5
UDI +5.5
64.5%
@ 1.51+5.8pp
MIL -5.5
35.5%
@ 2.14-5.8pp
2nd half Spread Udine -1.5
UDI -1.5
35.7%
@ 2.39-1.4pp
MIL +1.5
64.3%
@ 1.41+1.4pp
2nd half Spread Udine +6.5
UDI +6.5
68.3%
@ 1.43+6.5pp
MIL -6.5
31.7%
@ 2.32-6.5pp
2nd half Spread Udine +7.5
UDI +7.5
71.9%
@ 1.40+8.5pp
MIL -7.5
28.1%
@ 2.43-8.5pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
UDI
39.5%
@ 2.45+1.3pp
Draw
4.0%
@ 21.00-1.1pp
MIL
56.5%
@ 1.66-0.1pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 68.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 61.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Udinetheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Udine: 83.0 points a game allowed
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.8
20.2
53.4%
54.3%
40.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.5
9.3
35.1%
34.3%
27.9
🏀Free throws
20.2
14.7
72.8%
74.6%
14.7
Their opponents take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Olimpia Milanotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Olimpia Milano: 88.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.9
21.1
57.2%
54.3%
42.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.2
9.3
35.5%
34.3%
27.9
🏀Free throws
25.1
18.0
71.7%
74.6%
18.0
Their opponents take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 67.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Udinetheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Udine: 82.9 points a game allowed
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.1 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.7 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.6
19.0
50.6%
54.3%
38.1
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.8
9.6
34.4%
34.3%
28.7
🏀Free throws
20.8
16.1
77.5%
74.6%
16.1
Their opponents take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Olimpia Milanotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Olimpia Milano: 82.9 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.7 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.5
19.8
52.8%
54.3%
39.7
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.5
9.2
37.5%
34.3%
27.6
🏀Free throws
21.0
15.6
74.6%
74.6%
15.6
Their opponents take 62.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Udine
WWLLLWWLLW
Olimpia Milano
LWLWLLLLWL
#8
League position
#3
-3.4
Net rating
-1.4
91.7
Offensive rating
100.0
95.2
Defensive rating
101.4
48.3%
Effective FG%
55.5%
53.1%
Opp. effective FG%
55.5%
13.3%
Turnover %
16.5%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.37
27.3%
3-point %
36.0%
59.2%
Assist %
66.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%
Profile
■ Udine■ Olimpia Milano
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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