PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Utah State faces Weber State on 18 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, and the Pythia model designates Utah State as the clear favourite, rating them 99% to win largely because the Aggies have gone 3-0 this season, averaging 100.7 points per game while allowing only 66.7, and sit in league position 10. Weber State, by contrast, is 0-3, scoring 72.7 points per game and conceding 96.0, and occupies league position 385. Utah State's home record is 3-0, with a recent streak of four wins and one loss in their last five games, and they have just beaten Utah Tech 118-86, Nebraska O. 90-56, and Idaho State 94-58 at home. Weber State's road record is 0-2, with five straight losses, and they have lost to Utah Utes 64-85, Utah Valley State 93-101, and Oregon State 61-102. Historically, Utah State has won two of the three meetings, most recently 83-73 on 12 November 2025. Pythia projects a 95-67 score, 161.9 total points, and a 99% chance for Utah State to win, with a 1% chance for Weber State, and an overtime probability of 0%. The Aggies' dominant offensive and defensive numbers suggest a decisive victory.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 100.7 | 66.7 | 167.3 | +34.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 100.7 | 66.7 | 167.3 | +34.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 84.5 | 72.4 | 156.9 | +12.1 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 90.8 | 70.8 | 161.6 | +20.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 66.0 | 78.0 | 144.0 | -12.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (2) | 90.0 | 78.0 | 168.0 | +12.0 | 100% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (27) | 83.4 | 70.9 | 154.3 | +12.5 | 81% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 72.7 | 96.0 | 168.7 | -23.3 | 0% |
| Season at home (1) | 93.0 | 101.0 | 194.0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| Season away (2) | 62.5 | 93.5 | 156.0 | -31.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.3 | 83.6 | 159.9 | -7.3 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.4 | 91.2 | 162.6 | -19.8 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (5) | 71.4 | 93.2 | 164.6 | -21.8 | 0% |
| vs Similar (12) | 77.5 | 80.3 | 157.8 | -2.8 | 33% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 82.8 | 73.5 | 156.2 | +9.3 | 77% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.5 | 32.7 | 71.2 | +5.8 | 63% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 40.9 | 31.6 | 72.4 | +9.3 | 72% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 35.0 | 34.4 | 69.4 | +0.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.1 | 32.2 | 69.3 | +4.9 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.0 | 31.4 | 70.4 | +7.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 24.0 | 33.0 | 57.0 | -9.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 39.0 | 38.0 | 77.0 | +1.0 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (27) | 39.0 | 32.3 | 71.3 | +6.7 | 67% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.6 | 37.0 | 73.7 | -0.4 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.9 | 35.0 | 73.9 | +3.9 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.4 | 39.1 | 73.5 | -4.7 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.4 | 37.9 | 73.3 | -2.5 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.0 | 42.8 | 77.8 | -7.8 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (5) | 34.4 | 42.4 | 76.8 | -8.0 | 20% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 35.8 | 36.0 | 71.8 | -0.2 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker (13) | 38.3 | 35.9 | 74.2 | +2.4 | 62% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 13/11/25 | Utah State v Weber State | 83-73 |
| 20/12/22 | Utah State v Weber State | 72-75 |
| 16/12/21 | Weber State v Utah State | 80-95 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Utah Tech | 118-86 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Nebraska O. | 90-56 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Idaho State | 94-58 |
| 23/03/26 | A | Arizona | 66-78 |
| 20/03/26 | A | Villanova | 86-76 |
| 14/03/26 | H | San Diego State | 73-62 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Nevada | 79-66 |
| 12/03/26 | H | UNLV | 80-60 |
| 07/03/26 | H | New Mexico | 94-90 |
| 04/03/26 | A | UNLV | 65-92 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Utah Utes | 64-85 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Utah Valley State | 93-101 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Oregon State | 61-102 |
| 10/03/26 | A | East. Washington | 79-84 |
| 03/03/26 | A | Portland State | 60-84 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Idaho State | 83-73 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Montana | 92-72 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Montana State | 82-79 OT |
| 14/02/26 | A | East. Washington | 66-84 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Idaho | 83-72 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 100.7 | 100.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 66.7 | 66.7 | - |
| Point differential | +34.0 | +34.0 | - |
| Avg total | 167.3 | 167.3 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLL | 0% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 72.7 | 93.0 | 62.5 |
| Allowed / game | 96.0 | 101.0 | 93.5 |
| Point differential | -23.3 | -8.0 | -31.0 |
| Avg total | 168.7 | 194.0 | 156.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boise State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 114.3 | 71.0 | +43.3 |
| 2 | Utah State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.7 | 66.7 | +34.0 |
| 3 |  New Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 64.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  Grand Canyon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.3 | 77.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 |  San Diego State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 73.0 | +16.0 |
| 6 |  Colorado State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.7 | +12.3 |
| 7 |  UNLV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 88.5 | 78.0 | +10.5 |
| 8 |  Air Force | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 93.5 | 83.8 | +9.8 |
| 9 |  Wyoming | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.7 | 62.0 | +21.7 |
| 10 |  Nevada | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 73.3 | +8.3 |
| 11 |  Fresno State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.7 | 84.0 | -1.3 |
| 12 |  San Jose State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.0 | 81.7 | +1.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Northern Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.0 | 68.7 | +25.3 |
| 2 |  Idaho | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.7 | 67.7 | +23.0 |
| 3 |  Sacramento State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 83.5 | 78.5 | +5.0 |
| 4 |  Montana | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 5 |  Portland State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 75.0 | +5.7 |
| 6 |  Montana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 |  East. Washington | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 88.7 | -15.3 |
| 8 |  Northern Arizona | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 69.5 | 87.8 | -18.2 |
| 9 | Weber State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 72.7 | 96.0 | -23.3 |
| 10 |  Idaho State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.3 | 92.0 | -24.7 |
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