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Vaerlose vs BMS Herlev Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 18 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 18:00
Scheduled
Position#8
Record2-6
FormLLLLW
Points / game82.4
Allowed / game92.0
vs
Position#12
Record1-7
FormLLLLL
Points / game77.0
Allowed / game98.1
DenmarkBasketligaen· Sondersohallen
Other2026-27
Meetings · Vaerlose v BMS Herlev
18 Feb 2027
VAER v BMS
upcoming
19 Apr 2026
VAER74
BMS 97
06 Nov 2025
VAER93
BMS 76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaerlose win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
BMS Herlev win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VaerloseDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Holbaek-Stenhus
#11
W
89-83
89
83
+6
A23/04
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
70-91
70
91
-21
H28/04
Basketligaen
Gladsaxe
#9
W
88-78
88
78
+10
A19/09
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#5
L
74-88
74
88
-14
A22/09
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
L
85-89 OT
85
89
-4
H27/09
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
79-99
79
99
-20
A02/10
Basketligaen
Vejen
#10
L
80-92
80
92
-12
A08/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
82-123
82
123
-41
H18/10
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
64-68
64
68
-4
H24/10
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
W
107-99 OT
107
99
+8
A30/10
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-12
23-23
19-26
23-22
15-22
17-28
25-15
13-26
24-23
18-11
17-28
29-16
20-16
19-23
14-24
21-25
16-13
20-23
14-25
23-12
25-20
16-26
21-21
17-32
20-25
25-19
18-28
17-20
23-31
18-25
19-33
22-34
10-11
14-29
19-17
21-11
23-25
25-24
17-17
24-23
172.8Avg total
81.8Scored
91.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)82.492.0174.4-9.625%
Season at home (3)77.093.3170.3-16.30%
Season away (5)85.691.2176.8-5.640%
Last 10 (10)81.891.0172.8-9.230%
Last 5 (5)82.496.2178.6-13.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)74.897.8172.7-23.08%
vs Similar (15)85.985.1171.0+0.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)87.096.0183.0-9.033%
This opponent (BMS Herlev) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BMS HerlevDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vaerlose
#6
W
97-74
97
74
+23
A19/04
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
W
75-61
75
61
+14
H23/04
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
W
82-75
82
75
+7
A20/09
Basketligaen
Gladsaxe
#9
L
70-102
70
102
-32
H23/09
Basketligaen
Vejen
#10
L
95-106
95
106
-11
H26/09
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
77-80
77
80
-3
A01/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
55-117
55
117
-62
H10/10
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
L
71-93
71
93
-22
A18/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
67-105
67
105
-38
A24/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#8
L
99-107 OT
99
107
-8
H30/10
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-23
27-14
21-19
22-18
15-18
24-11
19-23
17-9
26-14
25-24
19-18
12-19
22-21
10-33
13-21
25-27
25-31
18-36
27-16
25-23
26-21
12-16
16-25
23-18
17-27
12-35
11-30
15-25
22-18
14-31
23-19
12-25
20-19
19-34
14-27
14-25
25-23
24-25
17-17
23-24
170.8Avg total
78.8Scored
92.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)77.098.1175.1-21.112%
Season at home (4)79.8108.0187.8-28.20%
Season away (4)74.288.2162.5-14.025%
Last 10 (10)78.892.0170.8-13.230%
Last 5 (5)73.8100.4174.2-26.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)76.197.0173.1-20.912%
vs Similar (6)84.080.7164.7+3.367%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -3.6-3.6Q2: -7.4-7.4Q3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q3: -3.5-3.5Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -2.5-2.5
VaerloseBMS Herlev
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VaerloseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Holbaek-Stenhus
#11
W
47-35
47
35
+12
A23/04
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
32-50
32
50
-18
H28/04
Basketligaen
Gladsaxe
#9
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A19/09
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#5
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A22/09
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H27/09
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A02/10
Basketligaen
Vejen
#10
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A08/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
41-56
41
56
-15
H18/10
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
24-40
24
40
-16
H24/10
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
L
48-49
48
49
-1
A30/10
Basketligaen
82.4Avg total
39.5Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.046.085.0-7.027%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.645.983.5-8.327%-
Last 30 away (15)40.546.186.6-5.727%-
Last 10 (10)39.542.982.4-3.430%-
Last 5 (5)39.847.086.8-7.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)36.949.085.9-12.10%-
vs Similar (15)39.943.082.9-3.147%-
vs Weaker ◀ (3)43.349.092.3-5.733%-
This opponent (BMS Herlev) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BMS HerlevLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vaerlose
#6
W
54-37
54
37
+17
A19/04
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H23/04
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
W
51-38
51
38
+13
A20/09
Basketligaen
Gladsaxe
#9
L
32-54
32
54
-22
H23/09
Basketligaen
Vejen
#10
L
43-67
43
67
-24
H26/09
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A01/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
29-62
29
62
-33
H10/10
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
L
36-49
36
49
-13
A18/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A24/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#8
W
49-48
49
48
+1
H30/10
Basketligaen
88.4Avg total
41.0Scored
47.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.447.487.7-7.033%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.347.888.1-7.538%-
Last 30 away (14)40.446.987.3-6.429%-
Last 10 (10)41.047.488.4-6.450%-
Last 5 (5)38.249.888.0-11.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)39.349.688.9-10.321%-
vs Similar (6)44.738.383.0+6.383%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Vaerlosetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vaerlose: 81.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.7 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.621.3
53.8%
55.2%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.78.5
29.6%
31.2%25.5
🏀 Free throws21.713.7
63.1%
67.7%13.7
They take 68.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
BMS Herlevtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BMS Herlev: 78.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.7 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.919.2
46.9%
55.2%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.19.0
32.0%
31.2%27.0
🏀 Free throws20.813.2
63.5%
67.7%13.2
They take 69.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Vaerlose
WLLLLLLWLW
BMS Herlev
LLLLLLLWWW
#8
League position
#12
-9.7
Net rating
-13.1
86.1
Offensive rating
81.6
95.7
Defensive rating
94.7
49.9%
Effective FG%
47.4%
56.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
17.7%
Turnover %
18.3%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.30
29.6%
3-point %
32.0%
61.7%
Assist %
57.8%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence86.1 · 81.6Defence95.7 · 94.7Shooting49.9% · 47.4%3-point %29.6% · 32.0%Ball care17.7% · 18.3%Free throws0.32 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ Vaerlose   ■ BMS Herlev
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Vaerlose wins
1
BMS Herlev wins
DateGameScore
30/10/26BMS Herlev v Vaerlose99-107 OT
19/04/26Vaerlose v BMS Herlev74-97
06/11/25Vaerlose v BMS Herlev93-76
Vaerloselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26ABMS Herlev107-99 OT
24/10/26HHolbaek-Stenhus64-68
18/10/26HBakken Bears82-123
08/10/26AVejen80-92
02/10/26AHorsens79-99
27/09/26HRanders85-89 OT
22/09/26ACopenhagen74-88
19/09/26AGladsaxe88-78
28/04/26HBears Academy70-91
23/04/26AHolbaek-Stenhus89-83
BMS Herlevlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26HVaerlose99-107 OT
24/10/26ABakken Bears67-105
18/10/26ARanders71-93
10/10/26HTeam FOG Naestved55-117
01/10/26AHolbaek-Stenhus77-80
26/09/26HVejen95-106
23/09/26HGladsaxe70-102
20/09/26ABears Academy82-75
23/04/26HAmager75-61
19/04/26AVaerlose97-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vaerlose
Basketligaen 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW25%
HomeLLL0%
AwayWLLLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games835
Win %25%0%40%
Points / game82.477.085.6
Allowed / game92.093.391.2
Point differential-9.6-16.3-5.6
Avg total174.4170.3176.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%0%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %25%33%20%
BMS Herlev
Basketligaen 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL12%
HomeLLLL0%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %12%0%25%
Points / game77.079.874.2
Allowed / game98.1108.088.2
Point differential-21.1-28.2-14.0
Avg total175.1187.8162.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %12%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Team FOG Naestved880100%103.870.2+33.5
2 Bakken Bears770100%105.676.1+29.4
3 Horsens86275%87.679.4+8.2
4 Svendborg75271%89.480.3+9.1
5 Copenhagen64267%79.278.0+1.2
6 Randers85362%95.285.8+9.5
7 Holbaek-Stenhus83538%76.189.1-13.0
8 Vaerlose82625%82.492.0-9.6
9 Gladsaxe82625%77.990.0-12.1
10 Vejen82625%81.095.5-14.5
11 Bears Academy81712%77.492.9-15.5
12 BMS Herlev81712%77.098.1-21.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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