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Vaerlose vs BMS Herlev Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 18 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 18:00
Scheduled
Position#11
Record2-9
FormLWLLL
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game91.2
Vaerlose
Denmark
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.0/10
Around normal
4.6/10
Around normal
BMS Herlev
Denmark
Position#12
Record1-10
FormLLLLL
Points / game74.4
Allowed / game97.0
DenmarkBasketligaen· Sondersohallen
Other2026-27
Meetings · Vaerlose v BMS Herlev
18 Feb 2027
VAER v BMS
upcoming
19 Apr 2026
VAER74
BMS 97
06 Nov 2025
VAER93
BMS 76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaerlose win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
BMS Herlev win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VaerloseDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVaerlose
Date
Competition
Copenhagen
#6
L
74-88
74
88
-14
58avg 76
A22/09
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
85-89 OT
85
89
-4
62avg 76
H27/09
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
79-99
79
99
-20
74avg 76
A02/10
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
80-92
80
92
-12
70avg 76
A08/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
82-123
82
123
-41
71avg 76
H18/10
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
64-68
64
68
-4
55avg 76
H24/10
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
W
107-99 OT
107
99
+8
101avg 76
A30/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
62-95
62
95
-33
no box
H04/11
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
59-86
59
86
-27
no box
A08/11
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#10
L
76-86
76
86
-10
no box
H14/11
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-16
19-23
14-24
21-25
16-13
20-23
14-25
23-12
25-20
16-26
21-21
17-32
20-25
25-19
18-28
17-20
23-31
18-25
19-33
22-34
10-11
14-29
19-17
21-11
23-25
25-24
17-17
24-23
22-16
8-21
14-27
18-31
16-26
15-24
17-18
11-18
16-25
28-27
16-15
16-19
169.3Avg total
76.8Scored
92.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)77.891.2169.0-13.418%
Season at home (5)73.892.2166.0-18.40%
Season away (6)81.290.3171.5-9.233%
Last 10 (10)76.892.5169.3-15.710%
Last 5 (5)73.686.8160.4-13.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)72.594.8167.4-22.38%
vs Similar (14)86.186.3172.4-0.264%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)87.096.0183.0-9.033%
This opponent (BMS Herlev) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BMS HerlevDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHerlev
Date
Competition
Gladsaxe
#8
L
70-102
70
102
-32
49avg 67
H23/09
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
95-106
95
106
-11
85avg 67
H26/09
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
77-80
77
80
-3
63avg 67
A01/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
55-117
55
117
-62
33avg 67
H10/10
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
71-93
71
93
-22
55avg 67
A18/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
67-105
67
105
-38
55avg 67
A24/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#11
L
99-107 OT
99
107
-8
89avg 67
H30/10
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#6
L
67-93
67
93
-26
no box
H04/11
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
57-98
57
98
-41
no box
A08/11
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
78-91
78
91
-13
no box
H12/11
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-21
10-33
13-21
25-27
25-31
18-36
27-16
25-23
26-21
12-16
16-25
23-18
17-27
12-35
11-30
15-25
22-18
14-31
23-19
12-25
20-19
19-34
14-27
14-25
25-23
24-25
17-17
23-24
17-12
20-18
11-33
19-30
11-28
12-24
17-26
17-20
25-20
11-23
16-22
26-26
172.8Avg total
73.6Scored
99.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)74.497.0171.4-22.69%
Season at home (6)77.3102.7180.0-25.30%
Season away (5)70.890.2161.0-19.420%
Last 10 (10)73.699.2172.8-25.60%
Last 5 (5)73.698.8172.4-25.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)75.096.6171.6-21.612%
vs Similar (5)82.479.0161.4+3.460%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-15-8+0+8+15Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -5.3-5.3Q2: -12.3-12.3Q3Q3: -5.6-5.6Q3: -7.1-7.1Q4Q4: -3.5-3.5Q4: -4.4-4.4
-15-8+0+8+15Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -5.3-5.3Q2: -12.3-12.3Q3Q3: -5.6-5.6Q3: -7.1-7.1Q4Q4: -3.5-3.5Q4: -4.4-4.4
VaerloseBMS Herlev
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VaerloseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Copenhagen
#6
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A22/09
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H27/09
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A02/10
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A08/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
41-56
41
56
-15
H18/10
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
24-40
24
40
-16
H24/10
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
L
48-49
48
49
-1
A30/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
30-37
30
37
-7
H04/11
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
31-50
31
50
-19
A08/11
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#10
L
44-52
44
52
-8
H14/11
Basketligaen
82.8Avg total
37.9Scored
44.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.646.084.6-7.423%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.045.982.9-8.920%-
Last 30 away (15)40.246.186.3-5.927%-
Last 10 (10)37.944.982.8-7.010%-
Last 5 (5)35.445.681.0-10.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)35.347.382.6-12.00%-
vs Similar (14)40.644.184.8-3.543%-
vs Weaker ◀ (3)43.349.092.3-5.733%-
This opponent (BMS Herlev) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BMS HerlevLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Gladsaxe
#8
L
32-54
32
54
-22
H23/09
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
43-67
43
67
-24
H26/09
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A01/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
29-62
29
62
-33
H10/10
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
36-49
36
49
-13
A18/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A24/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#11
W
49-48
49
48
+1
H30/10
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#6
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H04/11
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
23-52
23
52
-29
A08/11
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H12/11
Basketligaen
85.7Avg total
36.2Scored
49.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.446.686.0-7.233%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.346.886.1-7.438%-
Last 30 away (14)39.446.485.9-7.029%-
Last 10 (10)36.249.585.7-13.330%-
Last 5 (5)36.845.282.0-8.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)38.848.487.1-9.624%-
vs Similar (5)42.437.880.2+4.680%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Vaerlosetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vaerlose: 81.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.621.3
53.8%
55.2%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.78.5
29.6%
31.2%25.5
🏀 Free throws21.713.7
63.1%
68.0%13.7
They take 68.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
BMS Herlevtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BMS Herlev: 78.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.919.2
46.9%
55.2%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.19.0
32.0%
31.2%27.0
🏀 Free throws20.813.2
63.5%
68.0%13.2
They take 69.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Vaerlose
LLLWLLLLLL
BMS Herlev
LLLLLLLLLL
#11
League position
#12
-9.7
Net rating
-13.1
86.1
Offensive rating
81.6
95.7
Defensive rating
94.7
49.9%
Effective FG%
47.4%
56.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
17.7%
Turnover %
18.3%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.30
29.6%
3-point %
32.0%
61.7%
Assist %
57.8%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
0%

Profile

Offence86.1 · 81.6Defence95.7 · 94.7Shooting49.9% · 47.4%3-point %29.6% · 32.0%Ball care17.7% · 18.3%Free throws0.32 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)10% · 0%
■ Vaerlose   ■ BMS Herlev
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Vaerlose wins
1
BMS Herlev wins
DateGameScore
30/10/26BMS Herlev v Vaerlose99-107 OT
19/04/26Vaerlose v BMS Herlev74-97
06/11/25Vaerlose v BMS Herlev93-76
Vaerloselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HBears Academy76-86
08/11/26ASvendborg59-86
04/11/26HTeam FOG Naestved62-95
30/10/26ABMS Herlev107-99 OT
24/10/26HHolbaek-Stenhus64-68
18/10/26HBakken Bears82-123
08/10/26AVejen80-92
02/10/26AHorsens79-99
27/09/26HRanders85-89 OT
22/09/26ACopenhagen74-88
BMS Herlevlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HSvendborg78-91
08/11/26AHorsens57-98
04/11/26HCopenhagen67-93
30/10/26HVaerlose99-107 OT
24/10/26ABakken Bears67-105
18/10/26ARanders71-93
10/10/26HTeam FOG Naestved55-117
01/10/26AHolbaek-Stenhus77-80
26/09/26HVejen95-106
23/09/26HGladsaxe70-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vaerlose
Basketligaen 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL18%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayLLLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %18%0%33%
Points / game77.873.881.2
Allowed / game91.292.290.3
Point differential-13.4-18.4-9.2
Avg total169.0166.0171.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%0%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %18%20%17%
BMS Herlev
Basketligaen 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL9%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayWLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %9%0%20%
Points / game74.477.370.8
Allowed / game97.0102.790.2
Point differential-22.6-25.3-19.4
Avg total171.4180.0161.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %9%17%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Team FOG Naestved1110191%99.072.6+26.4
2 Bakken Bears98189%104.774.9+29.8
3 Horsens108280%89.277.6+11.6
4 Svendborg108280%90.679.7+10.9
5 Randers107370%95.686.0+9.6
6 Copenhagen105550%83.082.3+0.7
7 Holbaek-Stenhus115645%78.286.2-8.0
8 Gladsaxe103730%79.488.9-9.5
9 Vejen103730%78.996.8-17.9
10 Bears Academy112918%79.591.1-11.6
11 Vaerlose112918%77.891.2-13.4
12 BMS Herlev111109%74.497.0-22.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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