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VEF Riga vs Neftchi IK Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 18 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 92-78
Projected total 169.9
Scheduled
Position#12
Record4-2
FormLLWLW
Points / game95.0
Allowed / game84.7
Vs
87%
13%
■ VRI 87%■ NEFT 13%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.3/10
Below normal
4.6/10
Around normal
Position#38
Record2-6
FormLLLLW
Points / game75.6
Allowed / game82.6
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 7· Rimi Olympic Centre
European cup2026
Sections
Game preview & prediction

On 18 November 2026 the FIBA Europe Cup will see VEF Riga host Neftchi IK, with the model favouring Riga at 87% versus 13% for Neftchi, a reflection of Riga's 4-2 season record, 95.0 points per game and 84.7 allowed, and a league position of 12, compared with Neftchi's 2-6 record, 75.6 points per game and 82.6 allowed from 8 games and a position of 38. Riga's home form is 1-1 with 97.0 points per game and 87.0 allowed, and they have won two of their last five games, including a 97-65 victory over Fribourg Olympic, while Neftchi's road record is 0-4, 66.0 points per game and 76.2 allowed, with only one win in five outings, a 84-80 win over Mykonos. In the single meeting on 14 October 2026, Riga prevailed 110-94. Pythia projects a 92-78 score for a total of 169.9 points, with Riga covering the spread and a 2% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

VEF Riga win
86.9%fair 1.15
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Neftchi IK win
13.1%fair 7.63
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VEF RigaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRiga
Date
Competition
Tal Tech
#6
W
90-70
90
70
+20
84avg 84
A10/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Neftchi IK
#38
W
110-94
110
94
+16
117avg 84
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Parnu
#7
W
89-72
89
72
+17
84avg 84
H17/10
Latvia-Estonian League
CSM Oradea
#15
L
84-92
84
92
-8
77avg 84
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Valmiera Glass Via
#3
W
97-89
97
89
+8
94avg 84
A24/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Mykonos
#7
L
88-91
88
91
-3
83avg 84
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Tartu Ulikool
#5
L
74-86
74
86
-12
69avg 84
H31/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Fribourg Olympic
#46
W
97-65
97
65
+32
no box
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Viimsi
#13
L
88-104
88
104
-16
no box
A08/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Lok. Plovdiv
#24
W
85-83
85
83
+2
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-15
21-18
28-19
23-18
24-26
26-30
30-16
30-22
17-19
19-15
29-17
24-21
23-20
17-20
22-25
22-27
22-16
20-17
27-27
28-29
26-20
21-20
25-18
16-33
34-25
17-15
9-18
14-28
26-14
27-14
21-22
23-15
25-27
14-18
26-30
23-29
20-24
22-28
22-17
21-14
174.8Avg total
90.2Scored
84.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)95.084.7179.7+10.367%
Season at home (2)97.087.0184.0+10.050%
Season away (4)94.083.5177.5+10.575%
Last 10 (10)90.284.6174.8+5.660%
Last 5 (5)86.485.8172.2+0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)86.689.6176.2-3.038%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)88.373.5161.8+14.981%
This opponent (Neftchi IK) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi IKLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormIK
Date
Competition
BC Kalev/Cramo
#21
L
82-88
82
88
-6
no box
A12/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Absheron Lions
#27
L
86-95
86
95
-9
73avg 68
H19/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Parnu
#39
W
80-67
80
67
+13
76avg 68
H23/09
FIBA Europe Cup
Parnu
#39
L
61-73
61
73
-12
54avg 68
A30/09
FIBA Europe Cup
Mykonos
#7
L
58-78
58
78
-20
45avg 68
A06/10
FIBA Europe Cup
VEF Riga
#12
L
94-110
94
110
-16
85avg 68
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Fribourg Olympic
#46
L
73-78
73
78
-5
67avg 68
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CSM Oradea
#15
L
83-99
83
99
-16
72avg 68
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lok. Plovdiv
#24
L
72-76
72
76
-4
no box
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Mykonos
#7
W
84-80
84
80
+4
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-23
17-19
17-20
26-26
28-20
15-27
25-22
18-26
20-13
22-16
18-19
20-19
19-19
17-21
13-17
12-16
19-25
21-9
4-23
14-21
26-24
30-26
16-30
22-30
18-15
13-20
22-25
20-18
16-23
24-29
25-26
18-21
19-13
11-23
23-14
19-26
16-24
20-10
29-18
19-28
161.7Avg total
77.3Scored
84.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)75.682.6158.2-7.025%
Season at home (4)85.289.0174.2-3.850%
Season away (4)66.076.2142.2-10.20%
Last 10 (10)77.384.4161.7-7.120%
Last 5 (5)81.288.6169.8-7.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)78.288.6166.8-10.420%
vs Similar (6)81.083.3164.3-2.350%
vs Weaker (3)83.383.3166.7+0.033%
This opponent (VEF Riga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%10%13%0%1251%1301%1353%1404%1457%1509%15511%16012%16513%17011%1759%1807%1854%1903%1952%2001%2051%210
1%1303%1407%15011%16013%1709%1804%1902%2001%210
Pythia expects about 170 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (13%).
Over/Under 160
Over 160
73.4%
Under 160
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 165
Over 165
61.9%
Under 165
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 170
Over 170
49.3%
Under 170
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

VEF Riga total 80.5
Over 80.5
86.8%
Under 80.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VEF Riga total 84.5
Over 84.5
77.1%
Under 84.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VEF Riga total 88.5
Over 88.5
64.2%
Under 88.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi IK total 76.5
Over 76.5
53.7%
Under 76.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi IK total 80.5
Over 80.5
38.5%
Under 80.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi IK total 84.5
Over 84.5
25.0%
Under 84.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-181%-151%-122%-93%-64%-34%+07%+38%+69%+910%+1210%+159%+188%+217%+245%+274%+303%+332%+361%+391%+421%+45
1%-152%-94%-37%+39%+910%+158%+215%+273%+331%+391%+45
Margin from VEF Riga's side (positive = VEF Riga win). Pythia's expected margin is +14.6; VEF Riga win by 1+ in 84% of simulations.
Spread VEF Riga -3
VRI -3
82.9%
NEFT +3
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
VRI
No market prices yet.
NEFT
No market prices yet.
Spread VEF Riga 0
VRI 0
86.9%
NEFT 0
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
VRI
No market prices yet.
NEFT
No market prices yet.
Spread VEF Riga +3
VRI +3
90.6%
NEFT -3
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
VRI
No market prices yet.
NEFT
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -4.3-4.3
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -4.3-4.3
VEF RigaNeftchi IK
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VEF RigaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tal Tech
#6
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A10/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Neftchi IK
#38
L
50-56
50
56
-6
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Parnu
#7
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H17/10
Latvia-Estonian League
CSM Oradea
#15
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Valmiera Glass Via
#3
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A24/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Mykonos
#7
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Tartu Ulikool
#5
W
51-40
51
40
+11
H31/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Fribourg Olympic
#46
W
53-28
53
28
+25
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Viimsi
#13
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A08/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Lok. Plovdiv
#24
L
42-52
42
52
-10
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
84.0Avg total
43.9Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.539.184.5+6.477%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.138.584.5+7.693%-
Last 30 away (15)44.939.784.5+5.260%-
Last 10 (10)43.940.184.0+3.860%-
Last 5 (5)46.441.087.4+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)43.539.883.2+3.888%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)46.038.484.4+7.771%-
This opponent (Neftchi IK) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi IKLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BC Kalev/Cramo
#21
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A12/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Absheron Lions
#27
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H19/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Parnu
#39
W
42-29
42
29
+13
H23/09
FIBA Europe Cup
Parnu
#39
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A30/09
FIBA Europe Cup
Mykonos
#7
W
40-34
40
34
+6
A06/10
FIBA Europe Cup
VEF Riga
#12
W
56-50
56
50
+6
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Fribourg Olympic
#46
L
31-35
31
35
-4
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CSM Oradea
#15
L
40-52
40
52
-12
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lok. Plovdiv
#24
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Mykonos
#7
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
79.2Avg total
39.3Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (14)39.741.481.1-1.736%-
Last 30 at home (7)42.743.386.0-0.643%-
Last 30 away (7)36.739.676.3-2.929%-
Last 10 (10)39.339.979.2-0.640%-
Last 5 (5)38.641.480.0-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)40.441.281.6-0.860%-
vs Similar (6)41.542.584.0-1.033%-
vs Weaker (3)35.039.774.7-4.70%-
This opponent (VEF Riga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
VEF Rigatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

VEF Riga: 91.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.723.1
58.2%
53.4%46.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.98.8
31.5%
32.5%26.4
🏀 Free throws26.018.4
70.8%
72.8%18.4
They take 67.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Neftchi IKtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neftchi IK: 80.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.318.7
54.5%
53.4%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.810.5
35.2%
32.5%31.5
🏀 Free throws16.512.0
72.7%
72.8%12.0
They take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
VEF Riga
WLWLLWLWWW
Neftchi IK
WLLLLLLWLL
#12
League position
#38
+14.5
Net rating
-5.8
101.3
Offensive rating
97.7
86.9
Defensive rating
103.5
53.7%
Effective FG%
53.7%
50.1%
Opp. effective FG%
53.7%
12.4%
Turnover %
16.7%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.26
31.5%
3-point %
35.2%
77.4%
Assist %
59.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence101.3 · 97.7Defence86.9 · 103.5Shooting53.7% · 53.7%3-point %31.5% · 35.2%Ball care12.4% · 16.7%Free throws0.38 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)60% · 20%
■ VEF Riga   ■ Neftchi IK
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
VEF Riga wins
0
Neftchi IK wins
DateGameScore
14/10/26Neftchi IK v VEF Riga94-110
VEF Rigalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26ALok. Plovdiv85-83
08/11/26AViimsi88-104
04/11/26AFribourg Olympic97-65
31/10/26HTartu Ulikool74-86
28/10/26HMykonos88-91
24/10/26AValmiera Glass Via97-89
21/10/26ACSM Oradea84-92
17/10/26HParnu89-72
14/10/26ANeftchi IK110-94
10/10/26ATal Tech90-70
Neftchi IKlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HMykonos84-80
04/11/26ALok. Plovdiv72-76
28/10/26HCSM Oradea83-99
21/10/26AFribourg Olympic73-78
14/10/26HVEF Riga94-110
06/10/26AMykonos58-78
30/09/26AParnu61-73
23/09/26HParnu80-67
19/11/25HAbsheron Lions86-95
12/11/25ABC Kalev/Cramo82-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

VEF Riga
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW67%
HomeWL50%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %67%50%75%
Points / game95.097.094.0
Allowed / game84.787.083.5
Point differential+10.3+10.0+10.5
Avg total179.7184.0177.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Neftchi IK
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW25%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game75.685.266.0
Allowed / game82.689.076.2
Point differential-7.0-3.8-10.2
Avg total158.2174.2142.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)100% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trier660100%100.069.7+30.3
2 Esenler Erokspor660100%96.371.0+25.3
3 Basquet Girona65183%91.375.0+16.3
4 Nancy65183%87.272.5+14.7
5 Korfez Basket65183%87.373.7+13.7
6 Benfica65183%94.383.8+10.5
7 Mykonos65183%84.076.3+7.7
8 Dziki Warszawa65183%87.580.3+7.2
9 Chalon/Saone64267%84.872.7+12.2
10 Kolossos Rhodes64267%81.870.2+11.7
11 Iraklis64267%87.276.0+11.2
12 VEF Riga64267%95.084.7+10.3
13 Wurzburg64267%84.575.5+9.0
14 Promitheas64267%90.081.8+8.2
15 CSM Oradea64267%86.380.3+6.0
16 Szczecin64267%86.881.7+5.2
17 Geneva Lions64267%88.284.0+4.2
18 Keravnos64267%80.876.7+4.2
19 Zielona Gora64267%84.583.2+1.3
20 Split64267%81.580.3+1.2
21 Oostende64267%78.377.8+0.5
22 Bakken Bears64267%82.083.3-1.3
23 BC Prievidza84450%90.183.2+6.9
24 Lok. Plovdiv63350%83.383.5-0.2
25 AEK Larnaca63350%79.580.0-0.5
26 Valmiera Glass Via63350%81.083.3-2.3
27 BC Kalev/Cramo63350%80.083.7-3.7
28 Sporting CP63350%76.780.3-3.7
29 Trepca63350%77.581.2-3.7
30 Dinamo Bucharest83538%87.881.6+6.1
31 Denizli Basket62433%81.583.5-2.0
32 Vienna Basket62433%80.585.2-4.7
33 Levice62433%72.778.2-5.5
34 SCM Craiova62433%88.096.3-8.3
35 Nitra Blue Wings62433%78.888.2-9.3
36 Szolnoki Olaj62433%77.588.3-10.8
37 Tartu Ulikool62433%88.099.7-11.7
38 Neftchi IK82625%75.682.6-7.0
39 Parnu82625%71.479.0-7.6
40 Bashkimi51420%73.683.2-9.6
41 Rilski Sportist51420%75.888.8-13.0
42 Manchester Basketball51420%75.890.0-14.2
43 Gence51420%71.288.2-17.0
44 Opava61517%83.286.8-3.7
45 Absheron Lions61517%83.795.3-11.7
46 Fribourg Olympic61517%73.087.3-14.3
47 MZT Skopje6060%72.087.2-15.2
48 Samobor2020%74.0100.5-26.5
49 Peja2020%70.5100.5-30.0
50 Batumi6060%66.899.2-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 50 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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