PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Villanova vs Rider Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 86-60
Projected total 146.4
Final 99-62
42-23 57-39
Position#96
Record2-1
FormLLLWW
Points / game82.3
Allowed / game66.3
Villanova 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ VILL 98%■ RIDE 2%
Pythia win probability
Rider
USA
Position#342
Record1-3
FormLLLLW
Points / game64.5
Allowed / game72.2
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Villanova v Rider
14 Nov 2026
VILL99
RIDE62
27 Nov 2024
VILL72
RIDE48
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Villanova hosts Rider on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Villanova the clear favourite, assigning a 98% chance of victory largely because the Wildcats have a 2-1 record, averaging 82.3 points and allowing 66.3, while Rider sits at 1-3, averaging 64.5 and conceding 72.2; the model also notes Villanova's 2-1 home record and Rider's 0-2 road record. Villanova's last five games include a win over La Salle 80-59, a win over Holy Cross 95-66, and a loss to Notre Dame 72-74, while Rider's recent outings feature a win against William Paterson 83-53, a loss to Binghamton 63-75, and a loss to New Hampshire 55-66, with only one win in their last five. In their sole prior meeting, Villanova defeated Rider 72-48 on 27 November 2024, giving the Wildcats a psychological edge. The Pythia projection puts Villanova at 86 points to Rider's 60, for a total of 146.4, and predicts a 52% chance the over 145.5 will be hit; the model also gives a 0% overtime probability. Villanova's dominant record and scoring margin make the projected 86-60 outcome a realistic expectation for this matchup.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Villanova winWon
98.2%fair 1.02
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Rider winLost
1.8%fair 56.71
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VillanovaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Uconn
#11
L
63-73
63
73
-10
H21/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H26/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
57-89
57
89
-32
A01/03
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
76-57
76
57
+19
A05/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
91-78
91
78
+13
H07/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
64-78
64
78
-14
H13/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
76-86
76
86
-10
H20/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#37
L
72-74
72
74
-2
H01/11
NCAA
Holy Cross
#411
W
95-66
95
66
+29
H07/11
NCAA
La Salle
#294
W
80-59
80
59
+21
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-34
31-39
42-28
40-45
23-48
34-41
26-24
50-33
44-32
47-46
31-35
33-43
39-37
37-49
35-31
37-43
44-28
51-38
36-31
44-28
148.9Avg total
75.6Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)82.366.3148.7+16.067%
Season at home (3)82.366.3148.7+16.067%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.673.3148.9+2.350%
Last 5 (5)77.472.6150.0+4.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)66.880.8147.5-14.00%
vs Similar (7)70.669.6140.1+1.057%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)80.669.9150.5+10.789%
This opponent (Rider) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
RiderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
55-65
55
65
-10
H14/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
75-86
75
86
-11
A15/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
66-72
66
72
-6
H21/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
67-62
67
62
+5
H22/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
L
58-80
58
80
-22
A28/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A01/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#58
L
57-95
57
95
-38
A03/11
NCAA
New Hampshire Wildcats
#104
L
55-66
55
66
-11
H06/11
NCAA
Binghamton
#181
L
63-75
63
75
-12
A08/11
NCAA
William Paterson Pioneers
#420
W
83-53
83
53
+30
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
21-28
34-37
30-49
45-37
30-40
36-32
27-28
40-34
30-40
28-40
35-33
26-43
26-50
31-45
26-27
29-39
32-42
31-33
46-24
37-29
137.0Avg total
64.0Scored
73.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)64.572.2136.8-7.825%
Season at home (2)69.059.5128.5+9.550%
Season away (2)60.085.0145.0-25.00%
Last 10 (10)64.073.0137.0-9.020%
Last 5 (5)63.873.0136.8-9.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)63.777.7141.4-14.011%
vs Similar (2)51.559.5111.0-8.00%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Villanova) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 140Actual: Over 140
Over 140
65.8%
@ 1.45+1.6pp
Under 140
34.2%
@ 2.60-1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Over/Under 145 · main lineActual: Over 145
Over 145
53.5%
@ 1.92+4.0pp
Under 145
46.5%
@ 1.92-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.81
Under
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.84
Over/Under 150Actual: Over 150
Over 150
40.8%
@ 2.60+5.0pp
Under 150
59.2%
@ 1.45-5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Villanova total 86.5Actual: Villanova over 86.5
Over 86.5
48.0%
@ 1.42-15.8pp
Under 86.5
52.0%
@ 2.50+15.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.50
Villanova total 90.5 · main lineActual: Villanova over 90.5
Over 90.5
32.4%
@ 1.91-17.6pp
Under 90.5
67.6%
@ 1.89+17.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.80
Villanova total 94.5Actual: Villanova over 94.5
Over 94.5
19.5%
@ 2.42-17.8pp
Under 94.5
80.5%
@ 1.44+17.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.44
Rider total 51Actual: Rider over 51
Over 51
83.5%
Under 51
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rider total 55 · main lineActual: Rider over 55
Over 55
71.3%
@ 1.85+21.3pp
Under 55
28.7%
@ 1.85-21.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Rider total 59Actual: Rider over 59
Over 59
55.6%
Under 59
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Villanova -38.5Actual: Rider +38.5
VILL -38.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
RIDE +38.5
no forecast
@ 1.66
Best 5 market prices
VILL
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
RIDE
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.62
Spread Villanova -35.5 · main lineActual: Villanova -35.5
VILL -35.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
RIDE +35.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
VILL
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.81
RIDE
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.90
Spread Villanova -32.5Actual: Villanova -32.5
VILL -32.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
RIDE +32.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
Best 5 market prices
VILL
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
RIDE
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: -5.8-5.82nd half2nd half: -0.1-0.12nd half: -3.2-3.2
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: -5.8-5.82nd half2nd half: -0.1-0.12nd half: -3.2-3.2
VillanovaRider
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VillanovaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Uconn
#11
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H21/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H26/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
23-48
23
48
-25
A01/03
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
26-24
26
24
+2
A05/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H07/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
31-35
31
35
-4
H13/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H20/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#37
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H01/11
NCAA
Holy Cross
#411
W
44-28
44
28
+16
H07/11
NCAA
La Salle
#294
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H11/11
NCAA
68.0Avg total
35.2Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)35.732.267.9+3.573%47%
Last 30 at home (19)36.630.266.8+6.579%42%
Last 30 away (11)34.135.769.8-1.664%55%
Last 10 (10)35.232.868.0+2.470%50%
Last 5 (5)37.032.469.4+4.680%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.237.869.0-6.550%50%
vs Similar (7)32.631.063.6+1.671%29%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)37.831.569.3+6.379%53%
This opponent (Rider) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
RiderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
21-28
21
28
-7
H14/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
30-49
30
49
-19
A15/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H21/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
L
27-28
27
28
-1
H22/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A28/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A01/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#58
L
26-50
26
50
-24
A03/11
NCAA
New Hampshire Wildcats
#104
L
26-27
26
27
-1
H06/11
NCAA
Binghamton
#181
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A08/11
NCAA
William Paterson Pioneers
#420
W
46-24
46
24
+22
H12/11
NCAA
66.4Avg total
30.3Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)30.036.966.9-6.917%53%
Last 30 at home (14)30.732.663.4-1.929%43%
Last 30 away (16)29.440.670.0-11.26%62%
Last 10 (10)30.336.166.4-5.820%60%
Last 5 (5)33.035.268.2-2.240%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)29.738.367.9-8.611%56%
vs Similar (2)26.525.051.5+1.550%0%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Villanova) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Villanova win
VILL win
no forecast
@ 1.02
RIDE win
no forecast
@ 15.50
1st half Spread Villanova -18 · main lineActual: Villanova -18
VILL -18
no forecast
@ 1.85
RIDE +18
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 68.5 · main lineActual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
Villanova 1st half total 45 · main lineActual: Villanova under 45
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Rider 1st half total 24 · main lineActual: Rider under 24
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 67Actual: Under 67
Over
no forecast
@ 1.68
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 70Actual: Under 70
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Villanova -19Push
VILL -19
no forecast
@ 1.76
RIDE +19
no forecast
@ 2.08
1st half Spread Villanova -16.5Actual: Villanova -16.5
VILL -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
RIDE +16.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Under 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.38
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Villanova -20Actual: Rider +20
VILL -20
no forecast
@ 1.93
RIDE +20
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Spread Villanova -15.5Actual: Villanova -15.5
VILL -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
RIDE +15.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Spread Villanova -21Actual: Rider +21
VILL -21
no forecast
@ 2.13
RIDE +21
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Villanova (regulation)
VILL
no forecast
@ 1.02
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
RIDE
no forecast
@ 15.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
VILL win + total 145.5
🔒 Pro
RIDE win + total 145.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: VILL leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: RIDE leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Rider over 54.572.2%1.89
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		+25.3ppWon
Rider over 53.575.5%1.83
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.80		---+24.9ppWon
Rider over 52.578.6%1.65
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.55		---+24.4ppWon
Rider over 5571.3%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+21.3ppWon
Rider over 51.581.4%1.47
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41		--+19.9ppWon
Villanova under 9170.1%1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83		---+19.8ppLost
Villanova under 92.574.5%1.66
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.62		---+19.1ppLost
Rider over 50.583.9%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+18.8ppWon
Villanova under 91.571.1%1.80
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77		+17.8ppLost
Villanova under 94.580.5%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+17.8ppLost
Villanova under 95.583.2%1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37		---+16.7ppLost
Villanova under 96.585.6%1.33
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.30		---+16.7ppLost
Villanova under 93.577.6%1.51
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.50		--+16.4ppLost
Villanova under 97.587.7%1.26
Bet365
1.26		----+13.6ppLost
Villanova (regulation)97.9%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+6.1ppWon
Over 13870.3%1.35
Bet365
1.35		----+1.4ppWon
Over 120.594.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.0ppWon
Over 137.571.0%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+0.5ppWon
Over 125.590.4%1.03
Bet365
1.03		----+0.1ppWon
Villanova over 71.592.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.0ppWon
Under 170.593.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.4ppWon
Villanova over 72.591.4%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.9ppWon
Over 135.575.1%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----1.1ppWon
Villanova over 73.589.7%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----1.5ppWon
Over 130.583.9%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----1.6ppWon
Under 165.588.3%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----1.9ppWon
Villanova over 74.587.8%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----3.0ppWon
Villanova over 75.585.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----3.8ppWon
Under 160.581.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----4.5ppLost
Under 155.571.5%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----4.6ppLost
Villanova over 76.583.2%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----5.8ppWon
Villanova over 77.580.5%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----7.0ppWon
Villanova over 78.577.6%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----9.0ppWon
Villanova over 79.574.5%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----9.9ppWon
Rider under 69.582.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----10.7ppWon
Villanova over 80.571.1%1.13
Bet365
1.13		-----11.2ppWon
Villanova -15.581.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----11.5ppWon
Villanova -16.578.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----13.4ppWon
Rider under 67.576.4%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----14.4ppWon
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Villanova wins
0
Rider wins
DateGameScore
28/11/24Villanova v Rider72-48
Villanovalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HLa Salle80-59
07/11/26HHoly Cross95-66
01/11/26HNotre Dame72-74
20/03/26HUtah State76-86
13/03/26HGeorgetown64-78
07/03/26HXavier91-78
05/03/26ADePaul76-57
01/03/26ASt. John's (N.Y.)57-89
26/02/26HButler82-73
21/02/26HUconn63-73
Riderlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HWilliam Paterson Pioneers83-53
08/11/26ABinghamton63-75
06/11/26HNew Hampshire Wildcats55-66
03/11/26APittsburgh57-95
01/03/26ASiena61-76
28/02/26AIona58-80
22/02/26HNiagara67-62
21/02/26HCanisius66-72
15/02/26ASacred Heart75-86
14/02/26HMount St. Mary's55-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Villanova
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeLWW67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game82.382.3-
Allowed / game66.366.3-
Point differential+16.0+16.0-
Avg total148.7148.7-
Over 14567%67%-
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Rider
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLW25%
HomeLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game64.569.060.0
Allowed / game72.259.585.0
Point differential-7.8+9.5-25.0
Avg total136.8128.5145.0
Over 14525%0%50%
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Xavier440100%88.555.8+32.8
2 St. John's (N.Y.)330100%90.762.3+28.3
3 Uconn440100%84.558.0+26.5
4 DePaul440100%77.058.0+19.0
5 Georgetown440100%83.572.0+11.5
6 Providence43175%71.557.8+13.8
7 Seton Hall43175%69.261.5+7.8
8 Marquette32167%80.353.0+27.3
9 Villanova32167%82.366.3+16.0
10 Creighton32167%80.368.3+12.0
11 Butler42250%85.075.2+9.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena32167%85.379.0+6.3
2 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
3 Merrimack Warriors42250%62.865.8-3.0
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Quinnipiac42250%68.575.5-7.0
6 Iona52340%64.869.6-4.8
7 Fairfield31233%59.075.7-16.7
8 Mount St. Mary's31233%60.778.7-18.0
9 Marist41325%67.869.2-1.5
10 Rider41325%64.572.2-7.8
11 Manhattan41325%63.873.8-10.0
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara3030%63.084.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Villanova425799
Rider233962
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.