Vitoria vs FC Porto Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 13 Nov 2026

Tip-off: 20:30

Projected 76-91

Projected total 167.4

Final 65-93

16-23 10-26 17-23 22-21

Position#9

Record2-4

FormLLWLL

Points / game69.3

Allowed / game82.3

Vitoria

90%

■ VITO 10%■ POR 90%

Pythia win probability

FC Porto 🏆

Position#2

Record5-1

FormWWLLW

Points / game91.3

Allowed / game84.3

LPBRound 7· Pavilhao Desportivo Unidade Vimaranense

Other2026-27

Meetings · Vitoria v FC Porto

Sections

Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Vitoria will host FC Porto on 13 November 2026 in the LPB, and the Pythia model names FC Porto the favourite, assigning it a 90% win probability against Vitoria's 10% chance, a reflection of Porto's 5-1 record and 91.3 points per game compared with Vitoria's 2-4 record and 69.3 points per game. Vitoria's season shows a 2-4 record, 69.3 points scored and 82.3 allowed per game, while Porto sits 3rd with a 5-1 record, 91.3 points scored and 84.3 allowed per game. At home Vitoria has gone 1-2, scoring 71.0 and allowing 78.0, and has lost four of its last five games, including a 48-91 defeat to Sporting CP on 7 November and a 68-75 loss to CD Povoa on 1 November; Porto's last five road games include two wins and one loss, with a 81-76 victory over Braga on 8 November. Historically, Porto has won nine of ten meetings with Vitoria, most recently 115-69 on 14 March 2026. The model projects a 76-91 score, a total of 167.4 points, a home line of 14.5 with a 50% chance of covering, an over line of 166.5 with a 52% probability, and a 2% chance of overtime, underscoring Porto's dominance and Vitoria's struggle to keep pace.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vitoria winLost

10.2%fair 9.81

Best odds8.25

Implied14.2%

Edge-4.0pp

FC Porto winWon

89.8%fair 1.11

Best odds1.11

Implied85.8%

Edge+4.0pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Vitoria

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormVitoria

Date

Competition

Braga

84-101

101

-17

71avg 71

A04/04

LPB

Esgueira

93-87

83avg 71

H11/04

LPB

Vasco Da Gama

#11

89-96

-7

77avg 71

A18/04

LPB

Oliveirense

84-74

+10

71avg 71

H25/04

LPB

CAB Madeira

#10

83-78

74avg 71

A03/10

LPB

Ovarense

71-87

-16

56avg 71

H10/10

LPB

Braga

72-91

-19

54avg 71

A18/10

LPB

Portimonense

#11

74-72

61avg 71

H24/10

LPB

CD Povoa

68-75

-7

57avg 71

H01/11

LPB

Sporting CP

48-91

-43

no box

A07/11

LPB

19-11

22-40

22-29

21-21

21-17

23-15

29-30

20-25

14-28

17-20

24-18

34-30

29-18

15-12

22-17

18-27

14-18

17-24

25-21

27-15

21-17

17-20

9-30

24-20

12-20

18-23

22-26

20-22

24-21

19-13

15-20

16-18

18-12

21-16

14-23

15-24

10-21

11-34

12-22

15-14

161.8Avg total

76.6Scored

85.2Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (6)	69.3	82.3	151.7	-13.0	33%
Season at home (3)	71.0	78.0	149.0	-7.0	33%
Season away (3)	67.7	86.7	154.3	-19.0	33%
Last 10 (10)	76.6	85.2	161.8	-8.6	40%
Last 5 (5)	66.6	83.2	149.8	-16.6	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)	75.5	89.2	164.7	-13.6	25%
vs Similar (6)	89.5	87.2	176.7	+2.3	67%
vs Weaker (4)	88.5	90.0	178.5	-1.5	25%

This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

FC Porto

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPorto

Date

Competition

Benfica

75-71

63avg 81

H14/06

LPB

CA Queluz

110-93

110

+17

107avg 81

A02/10

LPB

Bonn

#14

74-78

-4

65avg 81

A07/10

Champions League

Benfica

93-86

80avg 81

H11/10

LPB

Esgueira

#12

95-91

91avg 81

A16/10

LPB

Bnei Herzliya

#47

86-74

+12

81avg 81

A21/10

Champions League

CAB Madeira

#10

93-82

+11

90avg 81

H25/10

LPB

Ovarense

76-78

-2

66avg 81

A31/10

LPB

Joventut Badalona

64-81

-17

no box

H03/11

Champions League

Braga

81-76

no box

H08/11

LPB

18-17

19-18

18-22

20-14

26-20

28-23

29-28

27-22

16-25

16-18

16-19

26-16

16-26

24-19

32-27

21-14

25-27

24-19

22-14

24-31

22-16

25-13

16-27

23-18

26-15

22-20

18-21

27-26

12-23

24-15

20-17

20-23

17-14

6-26

16-11

25-30

20-21

29-29

15-13

17-13

165.7Avg total

84.7Scored

81.0Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (6)	91.3	84.3	175.7	+7.0	83%
Season at home (3)	89.0	81.3	170.3	+7.7	100%
Season away (3)	93.7	87.3	181.0	+6.3	67%
Last 10 (10)	84.7	81.0	165.7	+3.7	70%
Last 5 (5)	80.0	78.2	158.2	+1.8	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	82.0	79.8	161.8	+2.2	62%
vs Similar (7)	81.9	78.6	160.4	+3.3	71%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)	92.1	80.8	172.9	+11.3	80%

This opponent (Vitoria) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 161.5Actual: Under 161.5

Over 161.5

63.9%

@ 1.55+3.0pp

Under 161.5

36.1%

@ 2.50-3.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.55

Bet365

1.50

Under

Bet365

2.50

Betano

2.25

Over/Under 166.5 · main lineActual: Under 166.5

Over 166.5

51.8%

@ 1.93+1.8pp

Under 166.5

48.2%

@ 1.87-1.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.93

Marathon Be

1.89

BetVictor

1.85

WilliamHill

1.85

Bet365

1.83

Under

SBO

1.87

BetVictor

1.85

WilliamHill

1.85

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.78

Over/Under 171.5Actual: Under 171.5

Over 171.5

39.7%

@ 2.52+2.7pp

Under 171.5

60.3%

@ 1.50-2.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.52

Bet365

2.50

Under

Bet365

1.50

Betano

1.44

📊 3. Team Totals

Vitoria total 71.5Actual: Vitoria under 71.5

Over 71.5

68.2%

@ 1.42+4.6pp

Under 71.5

31.8%

@ 2.57-4.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.42

1xBet

1.39

Under

Betano

2.57

1xBet

2.35

Vitoria total 75.5 · main lineActual: Vitoria under 75.5

Over 75.5

53.0%

@ 1.88+3.5pp

Under 75.5

47.0%

@ 1.83-3.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

1.88

Betano

1.85

Marathon Be

1.85

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.76

Under

Betano

1.83

BetVictor

1.83

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.81

1xBet

1.69

Vitoria total 79.5Actual: Vitoria under 79.5

Over 79.5

37.4%

@ 2.60+1.9pp

Under 79.5

62.6%

@ 1.42-1.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.60

1xBet

2.46

Under

Betano

1.42

1xBet

1.36

FC Porto total 86Actual: FC Porto over 86

Over 86

70.1%

Under 86

29.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

FC Porto total 90 · main lineActual: FC Porto over 90

Over 90

54.2%

@ 1.78+3.5pp

Under 90

45.8%

@ 1.86-3.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathon Be

1.78

1xBet

1.71

Under

Marathon Be

1.86

1xBet

1.73

FC Porto total 94Actual: FC Porto under 94

Over 94

37.6%

Under 94

62.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Vitoria +11.5Actual: FC Porto -11.5

VITO +11.5

39.2%

@ 2.40+0.4pp

POR -11.5

60.8%

@ 1.55-0.4pp

Best 5 market prices

VITO

Bet365

2.40

1xBet

2.31

Betano

2.25

POR

Betano

1.55

Bet365

1.52

Marathon Be

1.50

1xBet

1.44

Spread Vitoria +14.5 · main lineActual: FC Porto -14.5

VITO +14.5

49.8%

@ 1.95+0.8pp

POR -14.5

50.2%

@ 1.85-0.8pp

Best 5 market prices

VITO

Bet365

1.95

Betfair

1.91

Marathon Be

1.87

BetVictor

1.85

Betano

1.83

POR

BetVictor

1.85

Betano

1.83

SBO

1.83

Marathon Be

1.80

Betfair

1.80

Spread Vitoria +17.5Actual: FC Porto -17.5

VITO +17.5

60.4%

@ 1.66+1.0pp

POR -17.5

39.6%

@ 2.27-1.0pp

Best 5 market prices

VITO

Bet365

1.66

Marathon Be

1.56

Betano

1.55

1xBet

1.49

POR

Betano

2.27

1xBet

2.18

Bet365

2.10

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

VitoriaFC Porto

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.25
Last 30 (30)	21.2	21.6	42.7	-0.4	50%	50%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.5	20.0	42.5	+2.5	73%	47%
Last 30 away (15)	19.9	23.1	43.0	-3.3	27%	53%
Last 10 (10)	18.2	18.3	36.5	-0.1	60%	20%
Last 5 (5)	17.0	18.2	35.2	-1.2	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)	20.1	21.4	41.5	-1.2	45%	50%
vs Similar (6)	23.8	20.5	44.3	+3.3	67%	50%
vs Weaker (4)	22.5	24.2	46.8	-1.8	50%	50%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.25
Last 30 (30)	21.7	20.6	42.3	+1.1	57%	37%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.5	17.9	40.4	+4.7	80%	27%
Last 30 away (15)	20.9	23.3	44.3	-2.4	33%	47%
Last 10 (10)	19.8	20.4	40.2	-0.6	50%	20%
Last 5 (5)	19.4	17.8	37.2	+1.6	60%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	18.8	20.2	39.0	-1.5	50%	12%
vs Similar (7)	21.0	21.3	42.3	-0.3	43%	43%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)	23.7	20.5	44.1	+3.2	67%	47%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	19.1	21.6	40.7	-2.5	40%	47%
Last 30 at home (15)	18.8	18.3	37.1	+0.5	53%	27%
Last 30 away (15)	19.4	24.9	44.3	-5.5	27%	67%
Last 10 (10)	18.0	21.7	39.7	-3.7	40%	40%
Last 5 (5)	17.2	21.2	38.4	-4.0	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)	18.4	22.0	40.4	-3.6	35%	60%
vs Similar (6)	20.8	22.2	43.0	-1.3	50%	33%
vs Weaker (4)	20.2	19.0	39.2	+1.2	50%	0%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	23.1	21.2	44.3	+1.9	63%	63%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.4	21.5	43.9	+0.9	67%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	23.8	20.8	44.6	+3.0	60%	73%
Last 10 (10)	21.7	20.0	41.7	+1.7	70%	50%
Last 5 (5)	21.2	20.6	41.8	+0.6	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	18.1	21.9	40.0	-3.8	38%	38%
vs Similar (7)	24.4	23.6	48.0	+0.9	43%	86%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)	25.1	19.7	44.8	+5.5	87%	67%

VitoriaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Braga

41-51

-10

A04/04

LPB

Esgueira

44-32

+12

H11/04

LPB

Vasco Da Gama

#11

31-48

-17

A18/04

LPB

Oliveirense

44-30

+14

H25/04

LPB

CAB Madeira

#10

31-42

-11

A03/10

LPB

Ovarense

38-37

H10/10

LPB

Braga

30-43

-13

A18/10

LPB

Portimonense

#11

43-34

H24/10

LPB

CD Povoa

39-28

+11

H01/11

LPB

Sporting CP

21-55

-34

A07/11

LPB

76.2Avg total

36.2Scored

40.0Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83.5
Last 30 (30)	40.3	43.2	83.5	-2.9	40%	40%
Last 30 at home (15)	41.3	38.3	79.6	+2.9	67%	27%
Last 30 away (15)	39.3	48.1	87.3	-8.8	13%	53%
Last 10 (10)	36.2	40.0	76.2	-3.8	50%	10%
Last 5 (5)	34.2	39.4	73.6	-5.2	60%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)	38.5	43.4	81.8	-4.9	35%	35%
vs Similar (6)	44.7	42.7	87.3	+2.0	50%	50%
vs Weaker (4)	42.8	43.2	86.0	-0.5	50%	50%

This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

FC PortoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Benfica

37-35

H14/06

LPB

CA Queluz

54-43

+11

A02/10

LPB

Bonn

#14

32-43

-11

A07/10

Champions League

Benfica

40-45

-5

H11/10

LPB

Esgueira

#12

49-46

A16/10

LPB

Bnei Herzliya

#47

47-29

+18

A21/10

Champions League

CAB Madeira

#10

48-35

+13

H25/10

LPB

Ovarense

36-38

-2

A31/10

LPB

Joventut Badalona

23-40

-17

H03/11

Champions League

Braga

49-50

-1

H08/11

LPB

81.9Avg total

41.5Scored

40.4Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83.5
Last 30 (30)	44.8	41.8	86.6	+3.1	60%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	44.9	39.4	84.3	+5.5	73%	47%
Last 30 away (15)	44.7	44.1	88.9	+0.6	47%	67%
Last 10 (10)	41.5	40.4	81.9	+1.1	50%	40%
Last 5 (5)	40.6	38.4	79.0	+2.2	40%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	36.9	42.1	79.0	-5.2	25%	25%
vs Similar (7)	45.4	44.9	90.3	+0.6	43%	86%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)	48.8	40.1	88.9	+8.7	87%	60%

This opponent (Vitoria) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: FC Porto win

VITO win

no forecast

@ 5.30

POR win

no forecast

@ 1.20

1st half Spread Vitoria +8 · main lineActual: FC Porto -8

VITO +8

no forecast

@ 1.86

POR -8

no forecast

@ 1.83

1st half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Under 83.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.91

Under

no forecast

@ 1.90

Vitoria 1st half total 37.5 · main lineActual: Vitoria under 37.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.95

Under

no forecast

@ 1.83

FC Porto 1st half total 45.5 · main lineActual: FC Porto over 45.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.89

Under

no forecast

@ 2.07

1st half: VITO + total 82.5

VITO & over

no forecast

@ 7.50

VITO & under

no forecast

@ 8.00

1st half: Draw + total 82.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 34.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 36.00

1st half: POR + total 82.5

POR & over

no forecast

@ 2.35

POR & under

no forecast

@ 2.40

1st half Over/Under 82.25Actual: Under 82.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.87

Under

no forecast

@ 1.75

1st half Spread Vitoria +9Actual: FC Porto -9

VITO +9

no forecast

@ 1.76

POR -9

no forecast

@ 1.95

1st half Over/Under 85.5Actual: Under 85.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.12

Under

no forecast

@ 1.67

1st half Spread Vitoria +6.5Actual: FC Porto -6.5

VITO +6.5

no forecast

@ 2.25

POR -6.5

no forecast

@ 1.60

1st half Over/Under 81Actual: Under 81

Over

no forecast

@ 1.68

Under

no forecast

@ 1.82

1st half Spread Vitoria +5.5Actual: FC Porto -5.5

VITO +5.5

no forecast

@ 2.25

POR -5.5

no forecast

@ 1.57

1st half Spread Vitoria +10.5Actual: FC Porto -10.5

VITO +10.5

no forecast

@ 1.75

POR -10.5

no forecast

@ 2.15

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: FC Porto (regulation)

VITO

no forecast

@ 5.30

Draw

no forecast

@ 22.00

POR

no forecast

@ 1.25

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.25
Last 30 (30)	19.2	23.1	42.3	-3.9	30%	53%
Last 30 at home (15)	17.7	23.9	41.5	-6.2	13%	40%
Last 30 away (15)	20.7	22.3	43.1	-1.6	47%	67%
Last 10 (10)	19.4	23.6	43.0	-4.2	30%	50%
Last 5 (5)	14.4	24.2	38.6	-9.8	0%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)	18.1	23.2	41.4	-5.1	30%	50%
vs Similar (6)	22.3	22.5	44.8	-0.2	33%	50%
vs Weaker (4)	20.0	23.2	43.2	-3.2	25%	75%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.25
Last 30 (30)	19.8	19.1	38.9	+0.7	57%	30%
Last 30 at home (15)	19.5	18.7	38.3	+0.8	60%	27%
Last 30 away (15)	20.0	19.5	39.5	+0.5	53%	33%
Last 10 (10)	20.2	19.9	40.1	+0.3	60%	30%
Last 5 (5)	17.0	17.8	34.8	-0.8	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	19.9	20.0	39.9	-0.1	50%	25%
vs Similar (7)	18.0	17.9	35.9	+0.1	57%	14%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)	20.5	19.2	39.7	+1.3	60%	40%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.25
Last 30 (30)	20.6	22.6	43.2	-2.0	33%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	19.9	24.1	44.1	-4.2	20%	67%
Last 30 away (15)	21.3	21.0	42.3	+0.3	47%	47%
Last 10 (10)	21.0	21.6	42.6	-0.6	40%	70%
Last 5 (5)	18.0	19.6	37.6	-1.6	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)	19.0	22.6	41.5	-3.6	25%	50%
vs Similar (6)	22.5	22.0	44.5	+0.5	33%	67%
vs Weaker (4)	25.8	23.5	49.2	+2.2	75%	75%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.25
Last 30 (30)	22.2	19.0	41.2	+3.2	70%	47%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.1	19.4	41.5	+2.7	73%	47%
Last 30 away (15)	22.2	18.6	40.8	+3.6	67%	47%
Last 10 (10)	23.0	20.7	43.7	+2.3	70%	60%
Last 5 (5)	22.4	22.0	44.4	+0.4	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	24.2	17.1	41.4	+7.1	88%	50%
vs Similar (7)	18.4	15.9	34.3	+2.6	86%	14%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)	22.8	21.5	44.3	+1.3	53%	60%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83
Last 30 (30)	39.8	45.7	85.5	-5.9	20%	60%
Last 30 at home (15)	37.6	48.0	85.6	-10.4	7%	60%
Last 30 away (15)	42.0	43.3	85.3	-1.3	33%	60%
Last 10 (10)	40.4	45.2	85.6	-4.8	20%	60%
Last 5 (5)	32.4	43.8	76.2	-11.4	0%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)	37.1	45.8	82.9	-8.7	10%	55%
vs Similar (6)	44.8	44.5	89.3	+0.3	33%	67%
vs Weaker (4)	45.8	46.8	92.5	-1.0	50%	75%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83
Last 30 (30)	41.9	38.1	80.0	+3.8	70%	43%
Last 30 at home (15)	41.7	38.1	79.8	+3.5	67%	40%
Last 30 away (15)	42.2	38.1	80.3	+4.1	73%	47%
Last 10 (10)	43.2	40.6	83.8	+2.6	60%	50%
Last 5 (5)	39.4	39.8	79.2	-0.4	20%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	44.1	37.1	81.2	+7.0	75%	38%
vs Similar (7)	36.4	33.7	70.1	+2.7	71%	0%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)	43.3	40.7	84.0	+2.7	67%	67%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

VITO win + total 166.5

🔒 Pro

POR win + total 166.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: VITO leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: POR leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (VITO:POR): VITO wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Vitoria +22.5	75.9%	1.34	Betano 1.34	-	-	-	-	+7.5pp	Lost
FC Porto over 70.5	97.9%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
FC Porto over 73.5	96.0%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
FC Porto over 71.5	97.4%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
FC Porto over 79.5	87.7%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
FC Porto over 69.5	98.4%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
FC Porto over 75.5	94.0%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
FC Porto over 80.5	85.5%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
FC Porto over 77.5	91.2%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
FC Porto over 84.5	74.5%	1.29	1xBet 1.29	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
FC Porto -6.5	76.7%	1.29	Betano 1.29	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
FC Porto over 81.5	83.1%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
FC Porto over 83.5	77.6%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	+5.2pp	Won
Overtime: no	97.8%	1.01	Betano 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.2pp	Won
FC Porto over 85.5	71.1%	1.37	Bet365 1.40	Betano 1.38	1xBet 1.34	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Over 158.5	70.5%	1.39	Betano 1.39	-	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Lost
Vitoria over 70.5	71.7%	1.35	Bet365 1.36	1xBet 1.33	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Lost
FC Porto (regulation)	88.4%	1.07	Betano 1.10	Marathon Bet 1.06	1xBet 1.06	-	-	+4.4pp	Won
Over 141.5	94.5%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+4.3pp	Won
Vitoria under 94.5	95.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.2pp	Won
Vitoria under 95.5	96.4%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.2pp	Won
FC Porto win	89.8%	1.07	WilliamHill 1.11	Betano 1.09	Betfair 1.08	BetVictor 1.07	SBO 1.07	+4.0pp	Won
FC Porto +9.5	97.5%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.8pp	Won
Vitoria under 92.5	93.9%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
Over 146.5	90.1%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
FC Porto -7.5	73.8%	1.30	Betano 1.30	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Vitoria under 96.5	97.1%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Under 191.5	92.9%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Won
FC Porto +4.5	94.3%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+3.1pp	Won
Over 151.5	83.5%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+3.0pp	Won
FC Porto -8.5	70.8%	1.35	Betano 1.35	-	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
Vitoria +21.5	73.1%	1.31	Betano 1.31	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Lost
Over 156.5	74.7%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
Vitoria under 90.5	91.4%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+2.7pp	Won
Vitoria +20.5	70.2%	1.36	Bet365 1.44	Betano 1.36	1xBet 1.28	-	-	+2.5pp	Lost
Vitoria under 85.5	81.7%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+2.2pp	Won
Vitoria under 88.5	88.2%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+2.1pp	Won
Vitoria under 86.5	84.1%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+1.8pp	Won
FC Porto -4.5	82.0%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+1.5pp	Won
Under 181.5	80.8%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Under 186.5	87.9%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Vitoria under 84.5	79.1%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Vitoria under 82.5	73.1%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	+0.7pp	Won
Under 176.5	71.5%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	-0.4pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Vitoriatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vitoria: 79.1 points a game scored

🏀🏀51%

🏀🏀🏀28%

🏀21%

🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 51% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 28% of the points

🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 21% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game

49%

32%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.0	20.1	46.7%	51.1%	40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.8	7.5	29.1%	31.9%	22.5
🏀 Free throws	26.8	16.4	61.2%	71.1%	16.4

They take 68.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

FC Portotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

FC Porto: 86.1 points a game scored

🏀🏀43%

🏀🏀🏀40%

🏀17%

🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 43% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 40% of the points

🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game

49%

32%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.1	18.4	49.6%	51.1%	36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	31.5	11.5	36.5%	31.9%	34.5
🏀 Free throws	20.0	14.8	74.0%	71.1%	14.8

They take 68.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.0	20.7	50.5%	51.1%	41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.2	9.0	33.1%	31.9%	27.0
🏀 Free throws	24.1	15.7	65.1%	71.1%	15.7

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.8	19.7	49.5%	51.1%	39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.3	9.1	33.3%	31.9%	27.3
🏀 Free throws	18.7	13.6	72.7%	71.1%	13.6

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.0	21.4	50.9%	51.1%	42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	23.9	7.2	30.1%	31.9%	21.6
🏀 Free throws	24.2	16.1	66.4%	71.1%	16.1

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.8	20.3	53.7%	51.1%	40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.2	10.3	34.3%	31.9%	31.0
🏀 Free throws	21.0	14.5	69.2%	71.1%	14.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.8	20.6	51.8%	51.1%	41.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.2	10.0	34.2%	31.9%	30.0
🏀 Free throws	23.8	17.0	71.3%	71.1%	17.0

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.6	18.6	48.2%	51.1%	37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.0	8.8	32.6%	31.9%	26.4
🏀 Free throws	21.6	14.7	68.1%	71.1%	14.7

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Vitoria

LLWLLWWLWL

FC Porto

WLLWWWWLWW

League position

-5.3

Net rating

+6.5

83.7

Offensive rating

95.9

88.9

Defensive rating

89.5

45.6%

Effective FG%

52.0%

50.1%

Opp. effective FG%

49.7%

14.7%

Turnover %

14.8%

0.39

Free-throw rate

0.29

29.1%

3-point %

36.5%

55.8%

Assist %

60.2%

40%

Form (last 10/10)

70%

Profile

■ Vitoria ■ FC Porto

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Vitoria wins

FC Porto wins

Date	Game	Score
14/03/26	Vitoria v FC Porto	69-115
08/11/25	FC Porto v Vitoria	105-85
02/02/25	Vitoria v FC Porto	100-97 OT
19/10/24	FC Porto v Vitoria	88-80
29/03/24	FC Porto v Vitoria	91-84
09/03/24	Vitoria v FC Porto	83-88
04/11/23	FC Porto v Vitoria	94-72
14/05/23	Vitoria v FC Porto	101-112
10/05/23	FC Porto v Vitoria	119-82
21/01/23	Vitoria v FC Porto	83-85

Vitorialast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
07/11/26	A	Sporting CP	48-91
01/11/26	H	CD Povoa	68-75
24/10/26	H	Portimonense	74-72
18/10/26	A	Braga	72-91
10/10/26	H	Ovarense	71-87
03/10/26	A	CAB Madeira	83-78
25/04/26	H	Oliveirense	84-74
18/04/26	A	Vasco Da Gama	89-96
11/04/26	H	Esgueira	93-87
04/04/26	A	Braga	84-101

FC Portolast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
08/11/26	H	Braga	81-76
03/11/26	H	Joventut Badalona	64-81
31/10/26	A	Ovarense	76-78
25/10/26	H	CAB Madeira	93-82
21/10/26	A	Bnei Herzliya	86-74
16/10/26	A	Esgueira	95-91
11/10/26	H	Benfica	93-86
07/10/26	A	Bonn	74-78
02/10/26	A	CA Queluz	110-93
14/06/26	H	Benfica	75-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vitoria

LPB 2026-27

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLWLL	33%
Home	LWL	33%
Away	WLL	33%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	6	3	3
Win %	33%	33%	33%
Points / game	69.3	71.0	67.7
Allowed / game	82.3	78.0	86.7
Point differential	-13.0	-7.0	-19.0
Avg total	151.7	149.0	154.3
Over 166.5	0%	0%	0%
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (2)	100% (1)	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

FC Porto

LPB 2026-27

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWLW	83%
Home	WWW	100%
Away	WWL	67%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	6	3	3
Win %	83%	100%	67%
Points / game	91.3	89.0	93.7
Allowed / game	84.3	81.3	87.3
Point differential	+7.0	+7.7	+6.3
Avg total	175.7	170.3	181.0
Over 166.5	67%	67%	67%
Win by 10+	33%	33%	33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	67% (3)	100% (1)	50% (2)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Benfica	6	5	1	83%	91.5	75.5	+16.0
2	Ovarense	6	5	1	83%	83.7	76.2	+7.5
3	FC Porto	6	5	1	83%	91.3	84.3	+7.0
4	Braga	6	4	2	67%	88.8	79.5	+9.3
5	CD Povoa	6	4	2	67%	76.0	72.2	+3.8
6	Oliveirense	5	3	2	60%	92.4	91.2	+1.2
7	CA Queluz	5	3	2	60%	89.2	92.2	-3.0
8	Sporting CP	6	3	3	50%	81.8	75.5	+6.3
9	Vitoria	6	2	4	33%	69.3	82.3	-13.0
10	CAB Madeira	6	1	5	17%	86.2	89.3	-3.2
11	Portimonense	6	0	6	0%	75.7	87.8	-12.2
12	Esgueira	6	0	6	0%	77.7	97.8	-20.2

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Vitoria	16	10	17	22	65
FC Porto	23	26	23	21	93

← all games of the day

Vitoria vs FC Porto Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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