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Weber State vs Tarleton Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 25 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 78-73
Projected total 150.8
Scheduled
Position#324
Record1-3
FormLLLLW
Points / game74.5
Allowed / game86.2
Vs
69%
31%
■ WEBE 69%■ TARL 31%
Pythia win probability
Position#120
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game70.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Weber State v Tarleton
24 Nov 2026
WEBE v TARL
upcoming
17 Jan 2021
WEBE94
TARL79
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Weber State host Tarleton in the NCAA. Pythia makes Weber State the favourite at 69% and projects 78-73, about 151 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Weber State are 1-3 this season (74.5 scored, 86.2 allowed a game), form LLLLW; Tarleton are 3-1 this season (81.2 scored, 70.5 allowed a game), form LWLWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Weber State win
69.4%fair 1.44
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Tarleton win
30.6%fair 3.27
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 07:37 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Weber StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East. Washington
#261
L
66-84
66
84
-18
A14/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
W
82-79 OT
82
79
+3
H20/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
92-72
92
72
+20
H22/02
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
W
83-73
83
73
+10
A28/02
NCAA
Portland State
#87
L
60-84
60
84
-24
A03/03
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
79-84
79
84
-5
A10/03
NCAA
Oregon State
#35
L
61-102
61
102
-41
A03/11
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#73
L
93-101
93
101
-8
H08/11
NCAA
Utah Utes
#71
L
64-85
64
85
-21
A11/11
NCAA
Lincoln University (CA)
#446
W
80-57
80
57
+23
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
24-51
42-33
28-29
39-38
45-32
47-40
38-32
45-41
26-43
34-41
32-46
47-38
35-43
26-59
45-52
48-49
37-30
27-55
32-18
48-39
158.1Avg total
76.0Scored
82.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)74.586.2160.8-11.825%
Season at home (2)86.579.0165.5+7.550%
Season away (2)62.593.5156.0-31.00%
Last 10 (10)76.082.1158.1-6.140%
Last 5 (5)75.485.8161.2-10.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)71.493.2164.6-21.80%
vs Similar (11)77.980.9158.8-3.036%
vs Weaker (14)82.672.3154.9+10.379%
This opponent (Tarleton) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TarletonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#329
W
78-74
78
74
+4
H20/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H21/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A27/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
67-82
67
82
-15
A01/03
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
L
60-65
60
65
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
78-84
78
84
-6
A12/03
NCAA
Cameron
#399
W
86-60
86
60
+26
H03/11
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#129
L
90-96 OT
90
96
-6
A07/11
NCAA
Texas Dallas
#380
W
76-57
76
57
+19
H11/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
73-69
73
69
+4
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-36
34-38
32-32
40-48
28-35
44-44
29-40
38-42
28-29
32-36
25-39
53-45
45-34
41-26
46-32
36-50
37-22
39-35
29-33
44-36
149.8Avg total
75.2Scored
74.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)81.270.5151.8+10.875%
Season at home (3)78.362.0140.3+16.3100%
Season away (1)90.096.0186.0-6.00%
Last 10 (10)75.274.6149.8+0.640%
Last 5 (5)80.673.2153.8+7.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)67.582.2149.8-14.80%
vs Similar (15)70.773.7144.4-3.127%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)86.168.6154.7+17.686%
This opponent (Weber State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141
Over 141
72.5%
Under 141
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
61.2%
Under 146
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
48.9%
Under 151
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Weber State total 75.5
Over 75.5
60.8%
Under 75.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Weber State total 79.5
Over 79.5
45.2%
Under 79.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Weber State total 83.5
Over 83.5
30.3%
Under 83.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarleton total 62.5
Over 62.5
83.5%
Under 62.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarleton total 66.5
Over 66.5
71.9%
Under 66.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarleton total 70.5
Over 70.5
57.4%
Under 70.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Weber State -3
WEBE -3
61.4%
TARL +3
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
WEBE
No market prices yet.
TARL
No market prices yet.
Spread Weber State 0
WEBE 0
69.4%
TARL 0
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
WEBE
No market prices yet.
TARL
No market prices yet.
Spread Weber State +3
WEBE +3
77.1%
TARL -3
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
WEBE
No market prices yet.
TARL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -3.4-3.41st half: +1.1+1.12nd half2nd half: -3.0-3.02nd half: +0.1+0.1
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -3.4-3.41st half: +1.1+1.12nd half2nd half: -3.0-3.02nd half: +0.1+0.1
Weber StateTarleton
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Weber StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East. Washington
#261
L
24-51
24
51
-27
A14/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
L
28-29
28
29
-1
H20/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H22/02
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Portland State
#87
L
26-43
26
43
-17
A03/03
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A10/03
NCAA
Oregon State
#35
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A03/11
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#73
L
45-52
45
52
-7
H08/11
NCAA
Utah Utes
#71
W
37-30
37
30
+7
A11/11
NCAA
Lincoln University (CA)
#446
W
32-18
32
18
+14
H14/11
NCAA
71.8Avg total
34.2Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.836.573.3+0.347%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.234.073.2+5.253%-
Last 30 away (15)34.439.173.5-4.740%-
Last 10 (10)34.237.671.8-3.440%-
Last 5 (5)36.237.874.0-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)34.442.476.8-8.020%-
vs Similar (11)36.536.372.8+0.336%-
vs Weaker (14)37.934.672.5+3.264%-
This opponent (Tarleton) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TarletonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#329
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H20/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
28-35
28
35
-7
A27/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A01/03
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
L
28-29
28
29
-1
H06/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
25-39
25
39
-14
A12/03
NCAA
Cameron
#399
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H03/11
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#129
W
46-32
46
32
+14
A07/11
NCAA
Texas Dallas
#380
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H11/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
L
29-33
29
33
-4
H14/11
NCAA
67.5Avg total
34.3Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.333.268.4+2.147%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.032.269.2+4.850%-
Last 30 away (14)33.334.267.5-0.943%-
Last 10 (10)34.333.267.5+1.140%-
Last 5 (5)36.432.068.4+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)32.236.068.2-3.80%-
vs Similar (15)31.231.863.0-0.647%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)43.037.080.0+6.057%-
This opponent (Weber State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Weber State wins
1
Tarleton wins
DateGameScore
30/11/22Tarleton v Weber State75-65
18/01/21Weber State v Tarleton94-79
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HLincoln University (CA)80-57
11/11/26AUtah Utes64-85
08/11/26HUtah Valley State93-101
03/11/26AOregon State61-102
10/03/26AEast. Washington79-84
03/03/26APortland State60-84
28/02/26AIdaho State83-73
22/02/26HMontana92-72
20/02/26HMontana State82-79 OT
14/02/26AEast. Washington66-84
Tarletonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HAlcorn State73-69
11/11/26HTexas Dallas76-57
07/11/26ASan Diego Toreros90-96 OT
03/11/26HCameron86-60
12/03/26AAbilene Christian78-84
06/03/26HUT Arlington60-65
01/03/26ACalifornia Baptist67-82
27/02/26AUtah Valley State72-79
21/02/26HUtah Tech72-80
20/02/26HSouthern Utah78-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Weber State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLW25%
HomeLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game74.586.562.5
Allowed / game86.279.093.5
Point differential-11.8+7.5-31.0
Avg total160.8165.5156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Tarleton
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%100%0%
Points / game81.278.390.0
Allowed / game70.562.096.0
Point differential+10.8+16.3-6.0
Avg total151.8140.3186.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %25%0%100%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Sky conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Idaho42250%86.571.5+15.0
2 Montana42250%78.065.2+12.8
3 Northern Colorado42250%82.069.2+12.8
4 Portland State42250%81.573.2+8.2
5 Sacramento State31233%74.377.3-3.0
6 Montana State31233%76.080.0-4.0
7 East. Washington41325%80.583.5-3.0
8 Weber State41325%74.586.2-11.8
9 Northern Arizona4040%69.587.8-18.2
10 Idaho State3030%67.392.0-24.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Western Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Valley State330100%86.075.7+10.3
2 UT Arlington54180%88.270.8+17.4
3 Tarleton43175%81.270.5+10.8
4 Southern Utah53260%96.869.6+27.2
5 Abilene Christian31233%71.083.7-12.7
6 Utah Tech41325%80.587.2-6.8
7 California Baptist41325%66.877.0-10.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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