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Adelaide Lightning W vs Geelong Venom W Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 17 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 08:00
Projected 81-77
Projected total 157.5
Scheduled
Position#6
Record2-3
FormLLLWW
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game82.6
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Vs
64%
36%
■ ADEL 64%■ GEEL 36%
Pythia win probability
Geelong Venom W
Australia
Position#7
Record2-4
FormWLWLL
Points / game75.3
Allowed / game82.3
AustraliaNBL WRound 5· Adelaide Arena
Women2026-27
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong Venom W
17 Nov 2026
ADEL v GEEL
upcoming
21 Nov 2025
ADEL99
GEEL93
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Adelaide Lightning W host Geelong Venom W in the NBL W on 17 November 2026, with the Lightning favoured to win at 64% according to Pythia. Adelaide's season record stands at 2-3, having scored 79.8 points per game and allowed 82.6, placing them sixth in the league; at home they are 1-2, averaging 83.3 points and conceding 81.3. Their last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent 100-68 victory over Tasmania Jewels W at home on 7 November 2026, a 81-74 win away against Southside W on 1 November 2026, and a 82-90 loss to Perth Lynx W on 24 October 2026. Geelong, 2-4 overall, averages 75.3 points and allows 82.3, sitting seventh; on the road they are 1-1, scoring 83.5 and giving up 86.5. Their recent five games also feature two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 77-70 win away against Bendigo W on 2 November 2026, and losses to Perth Lynx W 76-95 on 13 November 2026 and Townsville W 67-80 on 5 November 2026. Historically the Lightning have won two of the three meetings, most recently 85-78 on 24 January 2026. Pythia projects an 81-77 score, a total of 157.5 points, and a 5% chance of overtime, with the Lightning covering the spread at 64%. The game will hinge on Adelaide's ability to maintain its higher scoring average against Geelong's recent offensive struggles.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W win
64.2%fair 1.56
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Geelong Venom W win
35.8%fair 2.79
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 07:37 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Southside W
#4
L
58-82
58
82
-24
no box
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
61-67
61
67
-6
54avg 62
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
85-78
85
78
+7
90avg 62
A24/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
77-82
77
82
-5
70avg 62
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
64-77
64
77
-13
44avg 62
H08/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
68-95
68
95
-27
no box
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
68-86
68
86
-18
no box
H20/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#1
L
82-90
82
90
-8
no box
H24/10
NBL W
Southside W
#9
W
81-74
81
74
+7
no box
A01/11
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
W
100-68
100
68
+32
no box
H07/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-22
21-22
9-19
8-19
11-15
13-21
17-16
20-15
24-16
22-32
16-21
23-9
20-17
18-25
24-13
15-27
19-25
16-23
15-12
14-17
16-17
25-31
15-22
12-25
24-17
19-23
15-19
10-27
17-26
17-15
26-18
22-31
27-22
20-15
12-17
22-20
27-18
23-24
22-14
28-12
154.3Avg total
74.4Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)79.882.6162.4-2.840%
Season at home (3)83.381.3164.7+2.033%
Season away (2)74.584.5159.0-10.050%
Last 10 (10)74.479.9154.3-5.530%
Last 5 (5)79.882.6162.4-2.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)70.185.8155.8-15.70%
vs Similar (11)81.977.5159.4+4.564%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)84.072.0156.0+12.0100%
This opponent (Geelong Venom W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geelong Venom WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
78-85
78
85
-7
64avg 60
H24/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
80-73
80
73
+7
70avg 60
H30/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
89-76
89
76
+13
88avg 60
A01/02
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
67-76
67
76
-9
68avg 60
A07/02
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
L
90-103
90
103
-13
no box
A15/10
NBL W
Southside W
#9
W
74-69
74
69
+5
no box
H24/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
68-77
68
77
-9
no box
H31/10
NBL W
Bendigo W
#8
W
77-70
77
70
+7
no box
A02/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
67-80
67
80
-13
no box
H05/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#1
L
76-95
76
95
-19
no box
H13/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-24
32-22
21-16
9-23
25-23
15-19
17-12
23-19
25-16
22-23
17-17
25-20
12-19
21-16
20-19
14-22
20-29
18-28
29-23
23-23
13-18
34-19
16-15
11-17
17-26
19-23
15-11
17-17
16-14
10-19
22-20
29-17
17-29
16-12
17-22
17-17
19-21
20-24
17-29
20-21
157.0Avg total
76.6Scored
80.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)75.382.3157.7-7.033%
Season at home (4)71.280.2151.5-9.025%
Season away (2)83.586.5170.0-3.050%
Last 10 (10)76.680.4157.0-3.840%
Last 5 (5)72.478.2150.6-5.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)70.582.0152.5-11.524%
vs Similar (8)80.978.5159.4+2.438%
vs Weaker (4)91.283.8175.0+7.550%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 156.5
Over 156.5
51.6%
Under 156.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 161.5
Over 161.5
39.6%
Under 161.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166.5
Over 166.5
28.7%
Under 166.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Adelaide Lightning W total 78
Over 78
61.1%
Under 78
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Adelaide Lightning W total 82
Over 82
45.0%
Under 82
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Adelaide Lightning W total 86
Over 86
29.7%
Under 86
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Geelong Venom W total 75.5
Over 75.5
54.1%
Under 75.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Geelong Venom W total 79.5
Over 79.5
38.8%
Under 79.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Geelong Venom W total 83.5
Over 83.5
25.3%
Under 83.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Adelaide Lightning W -3
ADEL -3
55.6%
GEEL +3
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
ADEL
No market prices yet.
GEEL
No market prices yet.
Spread Adelaide Lightning W 0
ADEL 0
64.2%
GEEL 0
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
ADEL
No market prices yet.
GEEL
No market prices yet.
Spread Adelaide Lightning W +3
ADEL +3
72.5%
GEEL -3
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
ADEL
No market prices yet.
GEEL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: -3.9-3.9Q2Q2: -3.7-3.7Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: -0.8-0.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: -3.9-3.9Q2Q2: -3.7-3.7Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: -0.8-0.8
Adelaide Lightning WGeelong Venom W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southside W
#4
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A24/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
35-48
35
48
-13
H08/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H20/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#1
L
34-41
34
41
-7
H24/10
NBL W
Southside W
#9
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A01/11
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H07/11
NBL W
82.5Avg total
39.9Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.143.683.7-3.530%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.443.382.7-3.940%-
Last 30 away (15)40.943.984.8-3.120%-
Last 10 (10)39.942.682.5-2.730%-
Last 5 (5)43.041.684.6+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)37.745.182.8-7.412%-
vs Similar (11)43.141.684.7+1.555%-
vs Weaker ◀ (2)44.541.586.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Geelong Venom W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geelong Venom WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
48-46
48
46
+2
H24/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H30/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A01/02
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A07/02
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
L
38-57
38
57
-19
A15/10
NBL W
Southside W
#9
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H24/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
36-49
36
49
-13
H31/10
NBL W
Bendigo W
#8
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A02/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
33-41
33
41
-8
H05/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#1
L
39-45
39
45
-6
H13/11
NBL W
81.1Avg total
38.7Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)37.443.380.8-5.934%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.442.881.2-4.338%-
Last 30 away (13)36.244.080.2-7.831%-
Last 10 (10)38.742.481.1-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)36.241.077.2-4.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)34.845.580.2-10.712%-
vs Similar (8)40.138.678.8+1.562%-
vs Weaker (4)43.543.587.0+0.075%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.3 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.417.2
46.0%
47.8%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.39.5
33.6%
32.8%28.5
🏀 Free throws11.89.3
78.8%
73.3%9.3
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Geelong Venom Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Geelong Venom W: 72.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.219.3
46.8%
47.8%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.26.9
26.3%
32.8%20.7
🏀 Free throws15.712.9
82.2%
73.3%12.9
They take 67.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
WWLLLLLWLL
Geelong Venom W
LLWLWLLWWL
#6
League position
#7
-10.8
Net rating
-13.8
87.2
Offensive rating
89.1
98.0
Defensive rating
102.9
47.9%
Effective FG%
44.0%
51.2%
Opp. effective FG%
55.4%
18.7%
Turnover %
15.6%
24.7%
Off. rebound %
27.0%
0.18
Free-throw rate
0.23
33.6%
3-point %
26.3%
66.3%
Assist %
58.8%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence87.2 · 89.1Defence98.0 · 102.9Shooting47.9% · 44.0%3-point %33.6% · 26.3%Ball care18.7% · 15.6%Off. rebounds24.7% · 27.0%Free throws0.18 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Geelong Venom W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Adelaide Lightning W wins
1
Geelong Venom W wins
DateGameScore
24/01/26Geelong Venom W v Adelaide Lightning W78-85
21/11/25Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong Venom W99-93 OT
25/10/25Geelong Venom W v Adelaide Lightning W110-76
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HTasmania Jewels W100-68
01/11/26ASouthside W81-74
24/10/26HPerth Lynx W82-90
20/10/26HTownsville W68-86
18/10/26ASydney W68-95
08/02/26HSouthside W64-77
31/01/26ASouthside W77-82
24/01/26AGeelong Venom W85-78
20/01/26HCanberra Capitals W61-67
17/01/26ASouthside W58-82
Geelong Venom Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HPerth Lynx W76-95
05/11/26HTownsville W67-80
02/11/26ABendigo W77-70
31/10/26HCanberra Capitals W68-77
24/10/26HSouthside W74-69
15/10/26ATasmania Jewels W90-103
07/02/26ACanberra Capitals W67-76
01/02/26ASydney W89-76
30/01/26HBendigo W80-73
24/01/26HAdelaide Lightning W78-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW40%
HomeLLW33%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %40%33%50%
Points / game79.883.374.5
Allowed / game82.681.384.5
Point differential-2.8+2.0-10.0
Avg total162.4164.7159.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Geelong Venom W
NBL W 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL33%
HomeWLLL25%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %33%25%50%
Points / game75.371.283.5
Allowed / game82.380.286.5
Point differential-7.0-9.0-3.0
Avg total157.7151.5170.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Perth Lynx W65183%94.284.0+10.2
2 Townsville W75271%85.977.6+8.3
3 Sydney W75271%83.678.1+5.4
4 Canberra Capitals W53260%83.282.0+1.2
5 Tasmania Jewels W53260%88.089.0-1.0
6 Adelaide Lightning W52340%79.882.6-2.8
7 Geelong Venom W62433%75.382.3-7.0
8 Bendigo W61517%82.387.2-4.8
9 Southside W71614%76.486.9-10.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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