PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Adelaide Lightning W vs Canberra Capitals W Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 20 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 61-67
11-15 13-21 17-16 20-15
Position#7
Record5-14
FormLLLWL
Points / game74.2
Allowed / game83.3
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
vs
Canberra Capitals W 🏆
Australia
Position#5
Record7-10
FormLLWLL
Points / game72.2
Allowed / game78.5
AustraliaNBL WRound 14
Women2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W
20 Jan 2026
ADEL61
CANB67
01 Nov 2025
ADEL73
CANB65
03 Jan 2025
ADEL77
CANB88
15 Dec 2024
ADEL68
CANB67
28 Jan 2024
ADEL84
CANB67
30 Nov 2022
ADEL90
CANB80
17 Mar 2022
ADEL81
CANB50
30 Jan 2022
ADEL67
CANB80
11 Nov 2020
ADEL85
CANB73
27 Dec 2019
ADEL78
CANB68
13 Feb 2019
ADEL74
CANB73
14 Dec 2018
ADEL93
CANB73
02 Dec 2018
ADEL91
CANB83
25 Oct 2017
ADEL80
CANB77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Canberra Capitals W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-76
71
76
-5
58avg 64
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
94-75
94
75
+19
92avg 64
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
59avg 64
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
82-109
82
109
-27
64avg 64
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
72-85
72
85
-13
59avg 64
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
75-93
75
93
-18
67avg 64
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-83
69
83
-14
68avg 64
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
65-80
65
80
-15
53avg 64
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
76-65
76
65
+11
76avg 64
H13/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
58-82
58
82
-24
no box
A17/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-20
25-24
17-16
11-16
13-20
30-16
27-17
24-22
16-31
18-12
13-15
20-17
29-31
17-30
20-25
16-23
15-18
23-23
15-17
19-27
19-27
21-24
12-22
23-20
17-24
10-20
15-23
27-16
12-20
18-18
15-21
20-21
23-23
23-13
12-13
18-16
20-22
21-22
9-19
8-19
155.2Avg total
72.9Scored
82.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)74.283.3157.5-9.226%
Season at home (9)77.481.4158.9-4.044%
Season away (10)71.285.0156.2-13.810%
Last 10 (10)72.982.3155.2-9.420%
Last 5 (5)68.680.6149.2-12.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)69.684.8154.4-15.16%
vs Similar ◀ (12)79.581.2160.8-1.850%
vs Weaker (1)87.070.0157.0+17.0100%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
67-91
67
91
-24
55avg 67
H29/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
76-75
76
75
+1
70avg 67
A07/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
76-71
76
71
+5
70avg 67
H09/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
97-71
97
71
+26
96avg 67
H12/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
77-73
77
73
+4
76avg 67
H20/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
49-75
49
75
-26
32avg 67
A23/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
61-91
61
91
-30
43avg 67
H27/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
77-74
77
74
+3
69avg 67
H04/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
72-84
72
84
-12
70avg 67
A10/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-78
69
78
-9
no box
A18/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-23
19-20
21-27
10-21
16-18
16-17
19-18
25-22
20-18
24-25
16-17
16-11
34-23
13-17
23-19
27-12
21-19
15-19
17-15
24-20
14-21
15-13
12-23
8-18
9-26
16-24
21-17
15-24
22-14
16-24
22-18
17-18
14-22
20-31
21-16
17-15
19-22
17-17
28-24
5-15
150.4Avg total
72.1Scored
78.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)72.278.5150.8-6.341%
Season at home (8)77.679.0156.6-1.462%
Season away (9)67.478.1145.6-10.722%
Last 10 (10)72.178.3150.4-6.250%
Last 5 (5)65.680.4146.0-14.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)70.483.9154.4-13.529%
vs Similar ◀ (14)77.676.7154.3+0.950%
vs Weaker (2)90.073.0163.0+17.0100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -5.4-5.4Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -1.2-1.2
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -5.4-5.4Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -1.2-1.2
Adelaide Lightning WCanberra Capitals W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
46-61
46
61
-15
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
27-44
27
44
-17
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H13/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A17/01
NBL W
82.6Avg total
38.8Scored
43.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.643.982.5-5.323%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.944.784.6-4.936%-
Last 30 away (16)37.543.280.7-5.712%-
Last 10 (10)38.843.882.6-5.020%-
Last 5 (5)36.842.679.4-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)36.844.981.8-8.112%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)40.842.283.1-1.442%-
vs Weaker (1)42.046.088.0-4.00%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H29/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A07/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H09/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H12/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H20/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
29-34
29
34
-5
A23/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
25-50
25
50
-25
H27/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H04/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
34-53
34
53
-19
A10/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A18/01
NBL W
77.0Avg total
35.7Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.141.479.5-3.240%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.140.181.1+1.060%-
Last 30 away (15)35.242.777.9-7.520%-
Last 10 (10)35.741.377.0-5.620%-
Last 5 (5)32.442.875.2-10.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)36.943.580.4-6.629%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)38.339.778.0-1.443%-
vs Weaker (2)45.538.083.5+7.5100%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.916.5
44.7%
47.8%33.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.3
34.4%
32.8%27.9
🏀 Free throws14.511.7
80.7%
73.3%11.7
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 74.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.820.8
43.5%
47.8%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.67.1
36.2%
32.8%21.3
🏀 Free throws16.511.6
70.3%
73.3%11.6
They take 67.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 19.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 29% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LWLLLLLLWL
Canberra Capitals W
LLWLLWWWWL
#7
League position
#5
-10.3
Net rating
-0.8
91.5
Offensive rating
97.6
101.9
Defensive rating
98.4
47.7%
Effective FG%
46.7%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
47.8%
20.0%
Turnover %
18.1%
23.9%
Off. rebound %
32.4%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.24
34.4%
3-point %
36.2%
68.2%
Assist %
68.8%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence91.5 · 97.6Defence101.9 · 98.4Shooting47.7% · 46.7%3-point %34.4% · 36.2%Ball care20.0% · 18.1%Off. rebounds23.9% · 32.4%Free throws0.23 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)20% · 50%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Canberra Capitals W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Adelaide Lightning W wins
5
Canberra Capitals W wins
DateGameScore
09/12/25Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W76-71
01/11/25Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W73-65
11/01/25Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W91-76
03/01/25Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W77-88
15/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W68-67
28/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W84-67
21/12/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W86-73
05/11/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W79-82
18/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W72-78
02/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W97-90 OT
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26ASouthside W58-82
13/01/26HSydney W76-65
10/01/26APerth Lynx W65-80
04/01/26HTownsville W69-83
02/01/26APerth Lynx W75-93
28/12/25ASouthside W72-85
21/12/25HPerth Lynx W82-109
19/12/25ABendigo W67-75
14/12/25ASydney W94-75
09/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-76
Canberra Capitals Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/01/26ATownsville W69-78
10/01/26ASydney W72-84
04/01/26HPerth Lynx W77-74
27/12/25HSydney W61-91
23/12/25APerth Lynx W49-75
20/12/25HGeelong Venom W77-73
12/12/25HSouthside W97-71
09/12/25HAdelaide Lightning W76-71
07/12/25AGeelong Venom W76-75
29/11/25HPerth Lynx W67-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL26%
HomeWLLLW44%
AwayLLLLL10%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %26%44%10%
Points / game74.277.471.2
Allowed / game83.381.485.0
Point differential-9.2-4.0-13.8
Avg total157.5158.9156.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%22%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %5%11%0%
Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL41%
HomeWWWLW62%
AwayLWLLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %41%62%22%
Points / game72.277.667.4
Allowed / game78.579.078.1
Point differential-6.3-1.4-10.7
Avg total150.8156.6145.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)100% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W1915479%85.872.2+13.7
2 Perth Lynx W1814478%82.774.7+7.9
3 Bendigo W1713476%76.269.0+7.2
4 Southside W178947%79.476.9+2.5
5 Canberra Capitals W1771041%72.278.5-6.3
6 Sydney W2061430%76.385.2-8.9
7 Geelong Venom W1951426%76.181.7-5.7
8 Adelaide Lightning W1951426%74.283.3-9.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W1113172061
Canberra Capitals W1521161567
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.