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Southside W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 05:30
Final 82-58
22-20 22-21 19-9 19-8
Position#4
Record7-9
FormLWWWL
Points / game79.2
Allowed / game78.1
Southside W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#7
Record5-13
FormLLLLW
Points / game75.1
Allowed / game83.4
AustraliaNBL WRound 14
Women2025-26
Meetings · Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W
31 Jan 2026
SOUT82
ADEL77
17 Jan 2026
SOUT82
ADEL58
28 Dec 2025
SOUT85
ADEL72
09 Feb 2025
SOUT84
ADEL78
06 Dec 2024
SOUT71
ADEL97
24 Feb 2024
SOUT60
ADEL74
05 Nov 2022
SOUT99
ADEL91
19 Feb 2022
SOUT72
ADEL85
02 Dec 2020
SOUT111
ADEL72
18 Feb 2020
SOUT68
ADEL65
25 Jan 2020
SOUT81
ADEL69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southside W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Southside WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
63-84
63
84
-21
61avg 75
A29/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
81-98
81
98
-17
74avg 75
A05/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
58avg 75
H07/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-97
71
97
-26
63avg 75
A12/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
86-58
86
58
+28
90avg 75
H16/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
60-70
60
70
-10
50avg 75
H21/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
85-72
85
72
+13
84avg 75
H28/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
113-94
113
94
+19
118avg 75
A30/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
94-52
94
52
+42
100avg 75
H03/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
84-90
84
90
-6
81avg 75
H11/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-23
16-16
15-18
14-27
21-33
14-30
25-23
21-12
14-17
12-12
18-18
23-28
23-34
17-13
19-23
12-27
23-11
22-20
24-13
17-14
13-18
15-18
20-19
12-15
18-15
23-23
17-15
27-19
26-19
34-24
26-25
27-26
32-6
23-12
23-16
16-18
23-26
15-24
20-18
26-22
159.4Avg total
80.4Scored
79.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)79.278.1157.4+1.144%
Season at home (9)81.072.9153.9+8.156%
Season away (7)77.084.9161.9-7.929%
Last 10 (10)80.479.0159.4+1.440%
Last 5 (5)87.275.6162.8+11.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)78.085.5163.5-7.518%
vs Similar (8)75.982.8158.6-6.925%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)82.275.9158.1+6.355%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
L
65-71
65
71
-6
55avg 63
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-76
71
76
-5
58avg 63
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
94-75
94
75
+19
92avg 63
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
59avg 63
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
82-109
82
109
-27
64avg 63
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
72-85
72
85
-13
59avg 63
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
75-93
75
93
-18
67avg 63
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-83
69
83
-14
68avg 63
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
65-80
65
80
-15
53avg 63
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
76-65
76
65
+11
76avg 63
H13/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-19
27-24
11-19
8-9
18-20
25-24
17-16
11-16
13-20
30-16
27-17
24-22
16-31
18-12
13-15
20-17
29-31
17-30
20-25
16-23
15-18
23-23
15-17
19-27
19-27
21-24
12-22
23-20
17-24
10-20
15-23
27-16
12-20
18-18
15-21
20-21
23-23
23-13
12-13
18-16
154.8Avg total
73.6Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)75.183.4158.4-8.328%
Season at home (9)77.481.4158.9-4.044%
Season away (9)72.785.3158.0-12.711%
Last 10 (10)73.681.2154.8-7.620%
Last 5 (5)71.481.2152.6-9.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)70.484.9155.3-14.66%
vs Similar (13)79.780.5160.2-0.854%
vs Weaker (1)87.070.0157.0+17.0100%
This opponent (Southside W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: -5.2-5.2Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -3.1-3.1Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -0.1-0.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: -5.2-5.2Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -3.1-3.1Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -0.1-0.1
Southside WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Southside WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A29/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
35-63
35
63
-28
A05/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
26-29
26
29
-3
H07/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A12/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H16/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
28-36
28
36
-8
H21/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H28/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
60-43
60
43
+17
A30/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
55-18
55
18
+37
H03/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
38-50
38
50
-12
H11/01
NBL W
79.6Avg total
40.2Scored
39.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.341.181.5-0.840%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.039.179.1+0.944%-
Last 30 away (14)40.743.484.1-2.736%-
Last 10 (10)40.239.479.6+0.840%-
Last 5 (5)44.437.081.4+7.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)38.844.082.8-5.227%-
vs Similar (8)38.142.880.9-4.625%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)43.537.180.5+6.464%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
46-61
46
61
-15
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
27-44
27
44
-17
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H13/01
NBL W
83.0Avg total
39.3Scored
43.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.843.882.6-5.027%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.344.584.9-4.240%-
Last 30 away (15)37.343.180.4-5.913%-
Last 10 (10)39.343.783.0-4.430%-
Last 5 (5)36.242.078.2-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)36.645.081.6-8.412%-
vs Similar (13)41.342.283.5-0.946%-
vs Weaker (1)42.046.088.0-4.00%-
This opponent (Southside W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Southside Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Southside W: 79.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.522.7
57.5%
47.8%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.78.0
31.1%
32.8%24.0
🏀 Free throws15.610.0
64.1%
73.3%10.0
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.916.5
44.7%
47.8%33.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.3
34.4%
32.8%27.9
🏀 Free throws14.511.7
80.7%
73.3%11.7
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Southside W
LWWWLWLLLL
Adelaide Lightning W
WLLLLLLWLL
#4
League position
#7
+1.8
Net rating
-10.3
101.1
Offensive rating
91.5
99.3
Defensive rating
101.9
53.2%
Effective FG%
47.7%
48.8%
Opp. effective FG%
49.0%
21.0%
Turnover %
20.0%
30.1%
Off. rebound %
23.9%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.23
31.1%
3-point %
34.4%
71.7%
Assist %
68.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence101.1 · 91.5Defence99.3 · 101.9Shooting53.2% · 47.7%3-point %31.1% · 34.4%Ball care21.0% · 20.0%Off. rebounds30.1% · 23.9%Free throws0.24 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)40% · 20%
■ Southside W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Southside W wins
5
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
28/12/25Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W85-72
09/02/25Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W84-78
20/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W82-72
06/12/24Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W71-97
24/02/24Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W60-74
30/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W62-87
18/11/23Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W67-56
28/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W72-73
03/12/22Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W91-72
05/11/22Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W99-91
Southside Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/01/26HTownsville W84-90
03/01/26HGeelong Venom W94-52
30/12/25ASydney W113-94
28/12/25HAdelaide Lightning W85-72
21/12/25HBendigo W60-70
16/12/25HGeelong Venom W86-58
12/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-97
07/12/25HBendigo W67-75
05/12/25APerth Lynx W81-98
29/11/25ATownsville W63-84
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/26HSydney W76-65
10/01/26APerth Lynx W65-80
04/01/26HTownsville W69-83
02/01/26APerth Lynx W75-93
28/12/25ASouthside W72-85
21/12/25HPerth Lynx W82-109
19/12/25ABendigo W67-75
14/12/25ASydney W94-75
09/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-76
30/11/25ABendigo W65-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Southside W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL44%
HomeWLWWL56%
AwayLLLLW29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %44%56%29%
Points / game79.281.077.0
Allowed / game78.172.984.9
Point differential+1.1+8.1-7.9
Avg total157.4153.9161.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%44%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW28%
HomeWLLLW44%
AwayWLLLL11%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %28%44%11%
Points / game75.177.472.7
Allowed / game83.481.485.3
Point differential-8.3-4.0-12.7
Avg total158.4158.9158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%22%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %6%11%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W1814478%86.372.3+13.9
2 Perth Lynx W1814478%82.774.7+7.9
3 Bendigo W1713476%76.269.0+7.2
4 Southside W167944%79.278.1+1.1
5 Canberra Capitals W167944%72.478.6-6.1
6 Sydney W2061430%76.385.2-8.9
7 Adelaide Lightning W1851328%75.183.4-8.3
8 Geelong Venom W1951426%76.181.7-5.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Southside W2222191982
Adelaide Lightning W20219858
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