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Sydney W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 18 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 95-68
17-16 31-25 22-15 25-12
Position#3
Record1-0
FormLLLLW
Points / game77.0
Allowed / game73.0
Sydney W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#6
Record-
FormLLWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
AustraliaNBL WRound 1· Quaycentre
Women2026-27
Meetings · Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W
18 Oct 2026
SYDN95
ADEL68
14 Dec 2025
SYDN75
ADEL94
19 Jan 2025
SYDN84
ADEL60
22 Dec 2024
SYDN73
ADEL86
17 Jan 2024
SYDN88
ADEL65
24 Feb 2023
SYDN101
ADEL91
26 Feb 2022
SYDN56
ADEL73
20 Jan 2022
SYDN52
ADEL77
13 Dec 2020
SYDN86
ADEL60
29 Dec 2019
SYDN72
ADEL80
08 Dec 2019
SYDN81
ADEL69
05 Dec 2018
SYDN72
ADEL82
23 Dec 2017
SYDN104
ADEL97
29 Nov 2017
SYDN74
ADEL77
18 Feb 2017
SYDN98
ADEL83
04 Dec 2015
SYDN67
ADEL94
13 Nov 2015
SYDN84
ADEL79
28 Nov 2014
SYDN66
ADEL54
01 Nov 2014
SYDN91
ADEL94
07 Dec 2013
SYDN62
ADEL63
26 Oct 2013
SYDN82
ADEL85
10 Nov 2012
SYDN94
ADEL78
25 Nov 2011
SYDN74
ADEL77
14 Jan 2011
SYDN82
ADEL73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sydney WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
91-61
91
61
+30
96avg 65
A27/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
94-113
94
113
-19
80avg 65
H30/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
89-78
89
78
+11
86avg 65
H05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
84-72
84
72
+12
75avg 65
H10/01
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
65-76
65
76
-11
49avg 65
A13/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
77-105
77
105
-28
no box
A16/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
57-76
57
76
-19
34avg 65
H25/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
76-89
76
89
-13
64avg 65
H01/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
93-108
93
108
-15
79avg 65
A07/02
NBL W
Southside W
#9
W
77-73
77
73
+4
no box
A16/10
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-9
24-16
17-21
24-15
19-26
24-34
25-26
26-27
25-20
28-19
18-26
18-13
22-14
31-20
16-21
15-17
23-23
13-23
13-12
16-18
21-20
27-34
17-35
12-16
21-15
12-15
8-24
16-22
16-25
23-22
17-17
20-25
16-22
18-30
33-26
26-30
26-25
11-21
19-14
21-13
165.4Avg total
80.3Scored
85.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)77.073.0150.0+4.0100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)77.073.0150.0+4.0100%
Last 10 (10)80.385.1165.4-4.840%
Last 5 (5)76.090.2166.2-14.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)75.288.2163.4-13.116%
vs Similar (10)76.079.3155.3-3.350%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)77.073.0150.0+4.0100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Southside W
#4
L
72-85
72
85
-13
59avg 63
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
75-93
75
93
-18
67avg 63
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-83
69
83
-14
68avg 63
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
65-80
65
80
-15
53avg 63
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
76-65
76
65
+11
76avg 63
H13/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
58-82
58
82
-24
no box
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
61-67
61
67
-6
54avg 63
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
85-78
85
78
+7
90avg 63
A24/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
77-82
77
82
-5
70avg 63
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
64-77
64
77
-13
44avg 63
H08/02
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-18
23-23
15-17
19-27
19-27
21-24
12-22
23-20
17-24
10-20
15-23
27-16
12-20
18-18
15-21
20-21
23-23
23-13
12-13
18-16
20-22
21-22
9-19
8-19
11-15
13-21
17-16
20-15
24-16
22-32
16-21
23-9
20-17
18-25
24-13
15-27
19-25
16-23
15-12
14-17
149.4Avg total
70.2Scored
79.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)70.279.2149.4-9.020%
Last 5 (5)69.077.2146.2-8.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)69.583.0152.5-13.56%
vs Similar (12)78.179.9158.0-1.850%
vs Weaker (1)87.070.0157.0+17.0100%
This opponent (Sydney W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.0+0.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.0+0.0
Sydney WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sydney WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
50-25
50
25
+25
A27/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
43-60
43
60
-17
H30/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H10/01
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
36-46
36
46
-10
A13/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
48-54
48
54
-6
A16/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H25/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H01/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
34-52
34
52
-18
A07/02
NBL W
Southside W
#9
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A16/10
NBL W
85.9Avg total
42.6Scored
43.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.843.582.3-4.730%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.843.182.9-3.329%-
Last 30 away (16)37.943.981.8-6.031%-
Last 10 (10)42.643.385.9-0.740%-
Last 5 (5)38.245.884.0-7.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)39.045.484.4-6.426%-
vs Similar (10)38.539.678.1-1.140%-
vs Weaker ◀ (1)37.046.083.0-9.00%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southside W
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
27-44
27
44
-17
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H13/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A24/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
35-48
35
48
-13
H08/02
NBL W
79.3Avg total
36.5Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.643.782.3-5.023%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.643.982.5-5.236%-
Last 30 away (16)38.643.582.1-4.912%-
Last 10 (10)36.542.879.3-6.310%-
Last 5 (5)36.843.680.4-6.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)37.144.781.8-7.612%-
vs Similar (12)40.542.082.5-1.542%-
vs Weaker (1)42.046.088.0-4.00%-
This opponent (Sydney W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydney Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney W: 80.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.420.7
45.6%
47.8%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.98.3
30.9%
32.8%24.9
🏀 Free throws18.913.9
73.5%
73.3%13.9
They take 72.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.3 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.417.2
46.0%
47.8%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.39.5
33.6%
32.8%28.5
🏀 Free throws11.89.3
78.8%
73.3%9.3
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney W
WLLLLLWWLW
Adelaide Lightning W
LLWLLWLLLL
#3
League position
#6
-5.2
Net rating
-10.8
95.1
Offensive rating
87.2
100.4
Defensive rating
98.0
45.9%
Effective FG%
47.9%
52.2%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
14.3%
Turnover %
18.7%
35.8%
Off. rebound %
24.7%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.18
30.9%
3-point %
33.6%
56.2%
Assist %
66.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence95.1 · 87.2Defence100.4 · 98.0Shooting45.9% · 47.9%3-point %30.9% · 33.6%Ball care14.3% · 18.7%Off. rebounds35.8% · 24.7%Free throws0.26 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)40% · 20%
■ Sydney W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Sydney W wins
6
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
13/01/26Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W76-65
14/12/25Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W75-94
09/11/25Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W88-71
19/01/25Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W84-60
22/12/24Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W73-86
20/11/24Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W78-54
17/01/24Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W88-65
05/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W74-67
06/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W64-66
24/02/23Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W101-91
Sydney Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/10/26ASouthside W77-73
07/02/26APerth Lynx W93-108
01/02/26HGeelong Venom W76-89
25/01/26HPerth Lynx W57-76
16/01/26AGeelong Venom W77-105
13/01/26AAdelaide Lightning W65-76
10/01/26HCanberra Capitals W84-72
05/01/26HBendigo W89-78
30/12/25HSouthside W94-113
27/12/25ACanberra Capitals W91-61
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/02/26HSouthside W64-77
31/01/26ASouthside W77-82
24/01/26AGeelong Venom W85-78
20/01/26HCanberra Capitals W61-67
17/01/26ASouthside W58-82
13/01/26HSydney W76-65
10/01/26APerth Lynx W65-80
04/01/26HTownsville W69-83
02/01/26APerth Lynx W75-93
28/12/25ASouthside W72-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney W
NBL W 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
Home--
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %100%-100%
Points / game77.0-77.0
Allowed / game73.0-73.0
Point differential+4.0-+4.0
Avg total150.0-150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tasmania Jewels W110100%103.090.0+13.0
2 Sydney W110100%77.073.0+4.0
3 Perth Lynx W110100%86.083.0+3.0
4 Canberra Capitals W110100%94.092.0+2.0
5 Bendigo W1010%92.094.0-2.0
6 Townsville W1010%83.086.0-3.0
7 Southside W1010%73.077.0-4.0
8 Geelong Venom W1010%90.0103.0-13.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sydney W1731222595
Adelaide Lightning W1625151268
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