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Adelaide Lightning W vs Perth Lynx W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 24 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 82-90
17-26 17-15 26-18 22-31
Position#6
Record0-2
FormWLLLL
Points / game68.0
Allowed / game90.5
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
vs
Perth Lynx W 🏆
Australia
Position#1
Record1-0
FormWWLLW
Points / game86.0
Allowed / game83.0
AustraliaNBL WRound 2· Adelaide Arena
Women2026-27
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W
24 Oct 2026
ADEL82
PERT90
21 Dec 2025
ADEL82
PERT109
19 Oct 2025
ADEL72
PERT75
01 Feb 2025
ADEL87
PERT69
09 Nov 2024
ADEL78
PERT92
10 Dec 2023
ADEL95
PERT98
02 Mar 2023
ADEL93
PERT97
16 Feb 2023
ADEL82
PERT108
02 Jan 2022
ADEL88
PERT86
06 Dec 2020
ADEL78
PERT80
30 Jan 2020
ADEL75
PERT74
06 Dec 2019
ADEL79
PERT69
30 Dec 2018
ADEL74
PERT67
02 Dec 2017
ADEL74
PERT89
12 Oct 2017
ADEL87
PERT81
27 Jan 2017
ADEL60
PERT80
12 Nov 2016
ADEL63
PERT75
08 Nov 2015
ADEL52
PERT65
01 Feb 2015
ADEL71
PERT58
04 Jan 2015
ADEL78
PERT61
03 Nov 2013
ADEL93
PERT41
05 Oct 2013
ADEL65
PERT69
08 Dec 2012
ADEL85
PERT48
08 Oct 2011
ADEL97
PERT70
19 Feb 2011
ADEL100
PERT103
17 Oct 2010
ADEL83
PERT74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Perth Lynx W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
69-83
69
83
-14
68avg 63
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
65-80
65
80
-15
53avg 63
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
76-65
76
65
+11
76avg 63
H13/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
58-82
58
82
-24
no box
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
61-67
61
67
-6
54avg 63
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
85-78
85
78
+7
90avg 63
A24/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
77-82
77
82
-5
70avg 63
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
64-77
64
77
-13
44avg 63
H08/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
68-95
68
95
-27
no box
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#4
L
68-86
68
86
-18
no box
H20/10
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-24
10-20
15-23
27-16
12-20
18-18
15-21
20-21
23-23
23-13
12-13
18-16
20-22
21-22
9-19
8-19
11-15
13-21
17-16
20-15
24-16
22-32
16-21
23-9
20-17
18-25
24-13
15-27
19-25
16-23
15-12
14-17
16-17
25-31
15-22
12-25
24-17
19-23
15-19
10-27
148.6Avg total
69.1Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)68.090.5158.5-22.50%
Season at home (1)68.086.0154.0-18.00%
Season away (1)68.095.0163.0-27.00%
Last 10 (10)69.179.5148.6-10.420%
Last 5 (5)72.483.6156.0-11.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)69.483.8153.2-14.45%
vs Similar (10)80.178.4158.5+1.760%
vs Weaker (1)87.070.0157.0+17.0100%
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
76-82
76
82
-6
59avg 79
H20/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
76-57
76
57
+19
66avg 79
A25/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
111-79
111
79
+32
107avg 79
A27/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
88-64
88
64
+24
81avg 79
A01/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
108-93
108
93
+15
113avg 79
H07/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
86-76
86
76
+10
82avg 79
H14/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
81-75
81
75
+6
76avg 79
A17/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
79-88
79
88
-9
61avg 79
A26/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
105-108 OT
105
108
-3
93avg 79
H01/03
NBL W
Townsville W
#4
W
86-83
86
83
+3
no box
H17/10
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-29
16-22
19-9
15-22
15-21
15-12
24-8
22-16
22-19
34-13
33-16
22-31
23-26
22-22
28-10
15-6
22-16
30-18
26-33
30-26
29-22
19-20
19-10
19-24
20-21
23-17
21-24
17-13
22-20
23-22
10-24
24-22
26-20
19-30
26-24
21-18
28-23
17-28
19-12
22-20
170.1Avg total
89.6Scored
80.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)86.083.0169.0+3.0100%
Season at home (1)86.083.0169.0+3.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)89.680.5170.1+9.170%
Last 5 (5)87.486.0173.4+1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)84.589.9174.4-5.425%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)85.074.0159.1+11.086%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +5.5+5.5Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: +0.9+0.9
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +5.5+5.5Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: +0.9+0.9
Adelaide Lightning WPerth Lynx W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
27-44
27
44
-17
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H13/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A24/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
35-48
35
48
-13
H08/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#4
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H20/10
NBL W
79.5Avg total
37.1Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.443.783.0-4.327%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.943.682.5-4.740%-
Last 30 away (15)39.843.783.5-3.913%-
Last 10 (10)37.142.479.5-5.320%-
Last 5 (5)40.645.285.8-4.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)37.644.682.3-7.016%-
vs Similar (10)42.441.684.0+0.850%-
vs Weaker (1)42.046.088.0-4.00%-
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
42-51
42
51
-9
H20/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
30-33
30
33
-3
A25/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
56-32
56
32
+24
A27/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
45-48
45
48
-3
A01/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
52-34
52
34
+18
H07/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
48-42
48
42
+6
H14/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A17/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
W
45-42
45
42
+3
A26/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
45-50
45
50
-5
H01/03
NBL W
Townsville W
#4
L
45-51
45
51
-6
H17/10
NBL W
87.2Avg total
45.1Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.040.684.6+3.353%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.241.185.4+3.150%-
Last 30 away (14)43.640.183.7+3.657%-
Last 10 (10)45.142.187.2+3.050%-
Last 5 (5)45.244.689.8+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)43.148.091.1-4.912%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)44.338.082.2+6.368%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.3 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.417.2
46.0%
47.8%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.39.5
33.6%
32.8%28.5
🏀 Free throws11.89.3
78.8%
73.3%9.3
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Perth Lynx Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth Lynx W: 88.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.120.9
49.6%
47.8%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.010.4
31.5%
32.8%31.2
🏀 Free throws18.315.3
83.6%
73.3%15.3
They take 75.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LLLLWLLWLL
Perth Lynx W
WLLWWWWWWL
#6
League position
#1
-10.8
Net rating
+10.5
87.2
Offensive rating
92.6
98.0
Defensive rating
82.1
47.9%
Effective FG%
48.6%
51.2%
Opp. effective FG%
43.4%
18.7%
Turnover %
12.2%
0.18
Free-throw rate
0.24
33.6%
3-point %
31.5%
66.3%
Assist %
60.1%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence87.2 · 92.6Defence98.0 · 82.1Shooting47.9% · 48.6%3-point %33.6% · 31.5%Ball care18.7% · 12.2%Off. rebounds24.7% · -Free throws0.18 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)20% · 70%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Perth Lynx W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Adelaide Lightning W wins
9
Perth Lynx W wins
DateGameScore
10/01/26Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W80-65
02/01/26Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W93-75
21/12/25Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W82-109
19/10/25Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W72-75
01/02/25Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W87-69
05/01/25Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W94-76
09/11/24Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W78-92
07/01/24Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W84-68
10/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W95-98 OT
11/11/23Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W92-85
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/10/26HTownsville W68-86
18/10/26ASydney W68-95
08/02/26HSouthside W64-77
31/01/26ASouthside W77-82
24/01/26AGeelong Venom W85-78
20/01/26HCanberra Capitals W61-67
17/01/26ASouthside W58-82
13/01/26HSydney W76-65
10/01/26APerth Lynx W65-80
04/01/26HTownsville W69-83
Perth Lynx Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/10/26HTownsville W86-83
01/03/26HTownsville W105-108 OT
26/02/26ATownsville W79-88
17/02/26ABendigo W81-75
14/02/26HBendigo W86-76
07/02/26HSydney W108-93
01/02/26ABendigo W88-64
27/01/26ASouthside W111-79
25/01/26ASydney W76-57
20/01/26HTownsville W76-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game68.068.068.0
Allowed / game90.586.095.0
Point differential-22.5-18.0-27.0
Avg total158.5154.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Perth Lynx W
NBL W 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game86.086.0-
Allowed / game83.083.0-
Point differential+3.0+3.0-
Avg total169.0169.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney W330100%84.770.3+14.3
2 Perth Lynx W110100%86.083.0+3.0
3 Townsville W21150%84.577.0+7.5
4 Tasmania Jewels W21150%90.090.5-0.5
5 Geelong Venom W21150%82.086.0-4.0
6 Canberra Capitals W21150%82.087.0-5.0
7 Southside W31233%77.776.0+1.7
8 Bendigo W1010%92.094.0-2.0
9 Adelaide Lightning W2020%68.090.5-22.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W1717262282
Perth Lynx W2615183190
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