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Southside W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 31 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 04:00
Final 82-77
17-20 25-18 13-24 27-15
Position#4
Record8-12
FormLWLLL
Points / game79.6
Allowed / game79.8
Southside W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#7
Record6-15
FormLWLLW
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game82.3
AustraliaNBL WRound 16· State Basketball Centre
Women2025-26
Meetings · Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W
31 Jan 2026
SOUT82
ADEL77
17 Jan 2026
SOUT82
ADEL58
28 Dec 2025
SOUT85
ADEL72
09 Feb 2025
SOUT84
ADEL78
06 Dec 2024
SOUT71
ADEL97
24 Feb 2024
SOUT60
ADEL74
05 Nov 2022
SOUT99
ADEL91
19 Feb 2022
SOUT72
ADEL85
02 Dec 2020
SOUT111
ADEL72
18 Feb 2020
SOUT68
ADEL65
25 Jan 2020
SOUT81
ADEL69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southside W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Southside WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
86-58
86
58
+28
90avg 76
H16/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
60-70
60
70
-10
50avg 76
H21/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
85-72
85
72
+13
84avg 76
H28/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
113-94
113
94
+19
118avg 76
A30/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
94-52
94
52
+42
100avg 76
H03/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
84-90
84
90
-6
81avg 76
H11/01
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
82-58
82
58
+24
no box
H17/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
88-98
88
98
-10
83avg 76
A21/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
75-78
75
78
-3
73avg 76
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
79-111
79
111
-32
72avg 76
H27/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-11
22-20
24-13
17-14
13-18
15-18
20-19
12-15
18-15
23-23
17-15
27-19
26-19
34-24
26-25
27-26
32-6
23-12
23-16
16-18
23-26
15-24
20-18
26-22
22-20
22-21
19-9
19-8
18-20
27-26
20-25
23-27
16-25
20-18
16-12
23-23
19-22
13-34
16-33
31-22
162.7Avg total
84.6Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)79.679.8159.3-0.240%
Season at home (11)80.975.0155.9+5.955%
Season away (9)78.085.6163.6-7.622%
Last 10 (10)84.678.1162.7+6.550%
Last 5 (5)81.687.0168.6-5.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)76.886.8163.6-10.18%
vs Similar (7)78.983.0161.9-4.129%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)81.873.2155.0+8.664%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
59avg 65
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
82-109
82
109
-27
64avg 65
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
72-85
72
85
-13
59avg 65
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
75-93
75
93
-18
67avg 65
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-83
69
83
-14
68avg 65
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
65-80
65
80
-15
53avg 65
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
76-65
76
65
+11
76avg 65
H13/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
58-82
58
82
-24
no box
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
61-67
61
67
-6
54avg 65
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
85-78
85
78
+7
90avg 65
A24/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-31
18-12
13-15
20-17
29-31
17-30
20-25
16-23
15-18
23-23
15-17
19-27
19-27
21-24
12-22
23-20
17-24
10-20
15-23
27-16
12-20
18-18
15-21
20-21
23-23
23-13
12-13
18-16
20-22
21-22
9-19
8-19
11-15
13-21
17-16
20-15
24-16
22-32
16-21
23-9
152.7Avg total
71.0Scored
81.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)74.082.3156.3-8.229%
Season at home (10)75.880.0155.8-4.240%
Season away (11)72.584.4156.8-11.918%
Last 10 (10)71.081.7152.7-10.720%
Last 5 (5)69.074.4143.4-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)69.884.1153.9-14.36%
vs Similar (13)78.080.5158.5-2.546%
vs Weaker (1)87.070.0157.0+17.0100%
This opponent (Southside W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: -4.1-4.1Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: -4.8-4.8Q4Q4: +2.7+2.7Q4: +1.1+1.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: -4.1-4.1Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: -4.8-4.8Q4Q4: +2.7+2.7Q4: +1.1+1.1
Southside WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Southside WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H16/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
28-36
28
36
-8
H21/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H28/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
60-43
60
43
+17
A30/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
55-18
55
18
+37
H03/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
38-50
38
50
-12
H11/01
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H17/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A21/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
32-56
32
56
-24
H27/01
NBL W
82.6Avg total
42.4Scored
40.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.241.581.8-1.340%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.939.779.6+0.147%-
Last 30 away (15)40.643.383.9-2.733%-
Last 10 (10)42.440.282.6+2.250%-
Last 5 (5)39.047.286.2-8.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)37.544.882.2-7.225%-
vs Similar (7)39.142.181.3-3.029%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)43.937.681.5+6.364%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
46-61
46
61
-15
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
27-44
27
44
-17
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H13/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A24/01
NBL W
81.4Avg total
37.2Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.843.582.3-4.723%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.243.682.8-4.436%-
Last 30 away (16)38.443.581.9-5.112%-
Last 10 (10)37.244.281.4-7.010%-
Last 5 (5)37.440.477.8-3.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)37.144.581.6-7.412%-
vs Similar (13)40.742.282.8-1.538%-
vs Weaker (1)42.046.088.0-4.00%-
This opponent (Southside W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Southside Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Southside W: 82.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.2 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.923.3
58.4%
47.8%46.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.08.6
34.4%
32.8%25.8
🏀 Free throws15.810.2
64.6%
73.3%10.2
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 74.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.916.9
47.1%
47.8%33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.59.8
35.6%
32.8%29.4
🏀 Free throws13.410.8
80.6%
73.3%10.8
They take 63.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Southside W
LLLWLWWWLW
Adelaide Lightning W
WLLWLLLLLL
#4
League position
#7
+1.7
Net rating
-8.1
101.8
Offensive rating
91.2
100.1
Defensive rating
99.4
55.8%
Effective FG%
49.8%
51.5%
Opp. effective FG%
49.3%
19.3%
Turnover %
20.7%
29.6%
Off. rebound %
25.0%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.21
34.4%
3-point %
35.6%
72.1%
Assist %
68.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence101.8 · 91.2Defence100.1 · 99.4Shooting55.8% · 49.8%3-point %34.4% · 35.6%Ball care19.3% · 20.7%Off. rebounds29.6% · 25.0%Free throws0.24 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)50% · 20%
■ Southside W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Southside W wins
5
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
17/01/26Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W82-58
28/12/25Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W85-72
09/02/25Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W84-78
20/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W82-72
06/12/24Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W71-97
24/02/24Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W60-74
30/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W62-87
18/11/23Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W67-56
28/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W72-73
03/12/22Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W91-72
Southside Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/26HPerth Lynx W79-111
24/01/26ATownsville W75-78
21/01/26ABendigo W88-98
17/01/26HAdelaide Lightning W82-58
11/01/26HTownsville W84-90
03/01/26HGeelong Venom W94-52
30/12/25ASydney W113-94
28/12/25HAdelaide Lightning W85-72
21/12/25HBendigo W60-70
16/12/25HGeelong Venom W86-58
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/26AGeelong Venom W85-78
20/01/26HCanberra Capitals W61-67
17/01/26ASouthside W58-82
13/01/26HSydney W76-65
10/01/26APerth Lynx W65-80
04/01/26HTownsville W69-83
02/01/26APerth Lynx W75-93
28/12/25ASouthside W72-85
21/12/25HPerth Lynx W82-109
19/12/25ABendigo W67-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Southside W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL40%
HomeWWLWL55%
AwayLLWLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20119
Win %40%55%22%
Points / game79.680.978.0
Allowed / game79.875.085.6
Point differential-0.1+5.9-7.6
Avg total159.3155.9163.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%45%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW29%
HomeLLLWL40%
AwayLLLLW18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211011
Win %29%40%18%
Points / game74.075.872.5
Allowed / game82.380.084.4
Point differential-8.2-4.2-11.9
Avg total156.3155.8156.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%20%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %5%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W2117481%85.372.5+12.8
2 Perth Lynx W2116576%83.474.4+9.0
3 Bendigo W2116576%77.770.8+7.0
4 Southside W2081240%79.679.8-0.1
5 Canberra Capitals W2081240%72.078.1-6.1
6 Geelong Venom W2161529%76.381.5-5.1
7 Adelaide Lightning W2161529%74.082.3-8.2
8 Sydney W2161529%75.484.8-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Southside W1725132782
Adelaide Lightning W2018241577
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