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Adelaide Lightning W vs Townsville W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 04 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 07:30
Final 69-83
17-24 10-20 15-23 27-16
Position#7
Record4-11
FormWLLLL
Points / game76.1
Allowed / game84.9
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
vs
Townsville W 🏆
Australia
Position#1
Record11-3
FormWLWWL
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game71.0
AustraliaNBL WRound 12· Adelaide Arena
Women2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W
04 Jan 2026
ADEL69
TOWN83
25 Nov 2025
ADEL64
TOWN90
05 Feb 2025
ADEL63
TOWN90
29 Nov 2024
ADEL68
TOWN69
23 Nov 2023
ADEL51
TOWN74
05 Jan 2023
ADEL93
TOWN68
05 Mar 2022
ADEL78
TOWN57
11 Dec 2021
ADEL59
TOWN70
26 Nov 2020
ADEL v TOWN
upcoming
17 Jan 2020
ADEL77
TOWN60
16 Nov 2018
ADEL77
TOWN79
19 Oct 2018
ADEL65
TOWN75
18 Nov 2017
ADEL78
TOWN101
16 Dec 2016
ADEL68
TOWN74
03 Dec 2016
ADEL54
TOWN72
20 Feb 2016
ADEL57
TOWN64
02 Jan 2016
ADEL60
TOWN88
16 Jan 2015
ADEL75
TOWN98
21 Nov 2014
ADEL53
TOWN71
22 Dec 2013
ADEL67
TOWN75
16 Nov 2013
ADEL69
TOWN68
23 Feb 2013
ADEL53
TOWN60
30 Nov 2012
ADEL90
TOWN75
07 Jan 2012
ADEL80
TOWN68
27 Nov 2010
ADEL82
TOWN60
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Townsville W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
L
74-82
74
82
-8
60avg 63
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
99-93 OT
99
93
+6
33avg 63
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
64-90
64
90
-26
45avg 63
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
65-71
65
71
-6
55avg 63
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-76
71
76
-5
58avg 63
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
94-75
94
75
+19
92avg 63
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
59avg 63
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
82-109
82
109
-27
64avg 63
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
72-85
72
85
-13
59avg 63
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
75-93
75
93
-18
67avg 63
A02/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-25
17-20
15-22
23-15
27-24
25-22
13-21
19-17
19-26
17-21
9-22
19-21
19-19
27-24
11-19
8-9
18-20
25-24
17-16
11-16
13-20
30-16
27-17
24-22
16-31
18-12
13-15
20-17
29-31
17-30
20-25
16-23
15-18
23-23
15-17
19-27
19-27
21-24
12-22
23-20
161.2Avg total
76.3Scored
84.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)76.184.9160.9-8.827%
Season at home (7)78.983.6162.4-4.743%
Season away (8)73.686.0159.6-12.412%
Last 10 (10)76.384.9161.2-8.620%
Last 5 (5)78.087.4165.4-9.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)70.985.4156.3-14.67%
vs Similar (14)80.480.0160.4+0.457%
vs Weaker (2)73.069.5142.5+3.550%
This opponent (Townsville W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Townsville WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
86-61
86
61
+25
no box
A07/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
103-69
103
69
+34
107avg 81
H15/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
101-61
101
61
+40
102avg 81
H22/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
90-64
90
64
+26
88avg 81
A25/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
84-63
84
63
+21
78avg 81
H29/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
93-60
93
60
+33
89avg 81
H06/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
81-97
81
97
-16
68avg 81
H14/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
99-77
99
77
+22
87avg 81
A20/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
79-74
79
74
+5
71avg 81
H23/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
61-73
61
73
-12
43avg 81
H31/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-15
20-12
17-24
24-10
26-22
21-21
31-15
25-11
26-18
31-13
23-13
21-17
26-19
21-17
22-9
21-19
23-18
16-16
18-15
27-14
31-15
26-13
23-17
13-15
26-25
23-24
19-25
13-23
24-25
31-22
24-13
20-17
10-21
24-16
22-17
23-20
14-22
16-22
16-20
15-9
157.6Avg total
87.7Scored
69.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)87.071.0158.0+16.079%
Season at home (7)86.071.0157.0+15.071%
Season away (7)88.071.0159.0+17.086%
Last 10 (10)87.769.9157.6+17.880%
Last 5 (5)82.676.2158.8+6.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)78.078.2156.2-0.238%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)87.367.6155.0+19.791%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +5.3+5.3Q3Q3: -4.4-4.4Q3: +4.7+4.7Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +4.7+4.7
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +5.3+5.3Q3Q3: -4.4-4.4Q3: +4.7+4.7Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +4.7+4.7
Adelaide Lightning WTownsville W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
46-61
46
61
-15
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A02/01
NBL W
87.1Avg total
41.4Scored
45.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.143.082.1-4.030%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.844.084.8-3.243%-
Last 30 away (16)37.642.279.8-4.619%-
Last 10 (10)41.445.787.1-4.330%-
Last 5 (5)40.246.486.6-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)37.745.683.3-7.914%-
vs Similar (14)41.141.182.2+0.150%-
vs Weaker (2)34.039.073.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Townsville W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Townsville WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
45-27
45
27
+18
A07/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H15/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
57-31
57
31
+26
H22/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
47-36
47
36
+11
A25/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H29/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
57-28
57
28
+29
H06/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
D
49-49
49
49
+0
H14/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
55-47
55
47
+8
A20/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H23/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H31/12
NBL W
83.6Avg total
46.0Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.335.780.0+8.683%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.236.279.4+7.071%-
Last 30 away (13)45.835.180.8+10.7100%-
Last 10 (10)46.037.683.6+8.470%-
Last 5 (5)45.041.086.0+4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)41.637.979.5+3.875%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)45.334.980.2+10.486%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 69.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.017.8
46.8%
47.8%35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.27.7
31.8%
32.8%23.1
🏀 Free throws13.910.8
77.7%
73.3%10.8
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Townsville Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Townsville W: 84.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.219.9
49.5%
47.8%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.79.6
36.0%
32.8%28.8
🏀 Free throws21.115.9
75.4%
73.3%15.9
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LLLLWLLLWL
Townsville W
LWWLWWWWWW
#7
League position
#1
-14.4
Net rating
+15.3
93.3
Offensive rating
110.8
107.6
Defensive rating
95.5
47.2%
Effective FG%
51.3%
51.7%
Opp. effective FG%
47.8%
19.9%
Turnover %
17.2%
23.9%
Off. rebound %
33.0%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.32
31.8%
3-point %
36.0%
61.6%
Assist %
65.4%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence93.3 · 110.8Defence107.6 · 95.5Shooting47.2% · 51.3%3-point %31.8% · 36.0%Ball care19.9% · 17.2%Off. rebounds23.9% · 33.0%Free throws0.22 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)20% · 80%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Townsville W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Adelaide Lightning W wins
8
Townsville W wins
DateGameScore
25/11/25Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W64-90
15/11/25Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W103-69
05/02/25Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W63-90
29/11/24Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W68-69
23/11/24Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W53-47
20/01/24Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W75-90
29/11/23Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W67-61
23/11/23Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W51-74
20/01/23Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W92-63
05/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W93-68
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/01/26APerth Lynx W75-93
28/12/25ASouthside W72-85
21/12/25HPerth Lynx W82-109
19/12/25ABendigo W67-75
14/12/25ASydney W94-75
09/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-76
30/11/25ABendigo W65-71
25/11/25HTownsville W64-90
21/11/25HGeelong Venom W99-93 OT
18/11/25HBendigo W74-82
Townsville Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/25HBendigo W61-73
23/12/25HSydney W79-74
20/12/25ASydney W99-77
14/12/25HPerth Lynx W81-97
06/12/25HSydney W93-60
29/11/25HSouthside W84-63
25/11/25AAdelaide Lightning W90-64
22/11/25HCanberra Capitals W101-61
15/11/25HAdelaide Lightning W103-69
07/11/25AGeelong Venom W86-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL27%
HomeWLWLL43%
AwayLWLLL12%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1578
Win %27%43%12%
Points / game76.178.973.6
Allowed / game84.983.686.0
Point differential-8.8-4.7-12.4
Avg total160.9162.4159.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%14%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %7%14%0%
Townsville W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL79%
HomeWWLWL71%
AwayLWWWW86%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %79%71%86%
Points / game87.086.088.0
Allowed / game71.071.071.0
Point differential+16.0+15.0+17.0
Avg total158.0157.0159.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%57%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1513287%75.766.6+9.1
2 Townsville W1411379%87.071.0+16.0
3 Perth Lynx W1612475%82.774.9+7.8
4 Southside W157847%78.977.3+1.6
5 Canberra Capitals W157847%72.578.2-5.7
6 Adelaide Lightning W1541127%76.184.9-8.8
7 Sydney W1641225%75.785.8-10.1
8 Geelong Venom W1631319%74.182.1-8.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W1710152769
Townsville W2420231683
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