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Southside W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 28 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 85-72
18-15 23-23 17-15 27-19
Position#4
Record4-8
FormLLLWL
Points / game74.3
Allowed / game78.5
Southside W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#7
Record4-9
FormLLWLL
Points / game76.5
Allowed / game84.2
AustraliaNBL WRound 11· State Basketball Centre
Women2025-26
Meetings · Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W
31 Jan 2026
SOUT82
ADEL77
17 Jan 2026
SOUT82
ADEL58
28 Dec 2025
SOUT85
ADEL72
09 Feb 2025
SOUT84
ADEL78
06 Dec 2024
SOUT71
ADEL97
24 Feb 2024
SOUT60
ADEL74
05 Nov 2022
SOUT99
ADEL91
19 Feb 2022
SOUT72
ADEL85
02 Dec 2020
SOUT111
ADEL72
18 Feb 2020
SOUT68
ADEL65
25 Jan 2020
SOUT81
ADEL69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southside W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Southside WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
W
89-83
89
83
+6
84avg 70
H31/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
76-79
76
79
-3
73avg 70
A09/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
54-66
54
66
-12
54avg 70
A14/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
93-76
93
76
+17
101avg 70
H22/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
63-84
63
84
-21
61avg 70
A29/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
81-98
81
98
-17
74avg 70
A05/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
58avg 70
H07/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-97
71
97
-26
63avg 70
A12/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
86-58
86
58
+28
90avg 70
H16/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
60-70
60
70
-10
50avg 70
H21/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-14
17-24
21-14
32-31
22-18
20-21
24-13
10-27
21-20
9-14
17-15
7-17
28-21
23-20
19-16
23-19
18-23
16-16
15-18
14-27
21-33
14-30
25-23
21-12
14-17
12-12
18-18
23-28
23-34
17-13
19-23
12-27
23-11
22-20
24-13
17-14
13-18
15-18
20-19
12-15
152.6Avg total
74.0Scored
78.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)74.378.5152.8-4.233%
Season at home (6)77.773.7151.3+4.050%
Season away (6)71.083.3154.3-12.317%
Last 10 (10)74.078.6152.6-4.630%
Last 5 (5)73.079.6152.6-6.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)77.284.9162.2-7.717%
vs Similar (10)79.481.7161.1-2.340%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)76.577.1153.6-0.638%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#8
W
88-71
88
71
+17
88avg 63
H09/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-103
69
103
-34
52avg 63
A15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
74-82
74
82
-8
60avg 63
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
99-93 OT
99
93
+6
33avg 63
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
64-90
64
90
-26
45avg 63
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
65-71
65
71
-6
55avg 63
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-76
71
76
-5
58avg 63
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
94-75
94
75
+19
92avg 63
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
59avg 63
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
82-109
82
109
-27
64avg 63
H21/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-14
22-19
28-10
14-28
22-26
21-21
15-31
11-25
19-25
17-20
15-22
23-15
27-24
25-22
13-21
19-17
19-26
17-21
9-22
19-21
19-19
27-24
11-19
8-9
18-20
25-24
17-16
11-16
13-20
30-16
27-17
24-22
16-31
18-12
13-15
20-17
29-31
17-30
20-25
16-23
161.8Avg total
77.3Scored
84.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)76.584.2160.7-7.831%
Season at home (7)78.983.6162.4-4.743%
Season away (6)73.785.0158.7-11.317%
Last 10 (10)77.384.5161.8-7.230%
Last 5 (5)75.881.2157.0-5.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)68.681.4150.0-12.97%
vs Similar (14)80.480.0160.4+0.457%
vs Weaker (2)73.069.5142.5+3.550%
This opponent (Southside W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: -3.0-3.0Q4Q4: -4.6-4.6Q4: -2.8-2.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: -3.0-3.0Q4Q4: -4.6-4.6Q4: -2.8-2.8
Southside WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Southside WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H31/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A09/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A14/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
51-41
51
41
+10
H22/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A29/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
35-63
35
63
-28
A05/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
26-29
26
29
-3
H07/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A12/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H16/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
28-36
28
36
-8
H21/12
NBL W
76.4Avg total
36.7Scored
39.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.541.481.0-1.937%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.540.780.2-1.140%-
Last 30 away (15)39.542.281.7-2.733%-
Last 10 (10)36.739.776.4-3.030%-
Last 5 (5)34.841.276.0-6.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)39.242.781.9-3.433%-
vs Similar (10)39.342.281.5-2.930%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)40.238.678.9+1.650%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#8
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H09/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
46-61
46
61
-15
H21/12
NBL W
87.0Avg total
42.5Scored
44.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.142.081.2-2.933%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.743.984.6-3.140%-
Last 30 away (15)37.540.277.7-2.727%-
Last 10 (10)42.544.587.0-2.040%-
Last 5 (5)42.445.487.8-3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)37.943.481.3-5.621%-
vs Similar (14)41.141.182.2+0.150%-
vs Weaker (2)34.039.073.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Southside W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Southside Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Southside W: 71.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.820.0
51.5%
47.8%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.97.4
28.6%
32.8%22.2
🏀 Free throws13.29.4
71.2%
73.3%9.4
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 70.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.518.1
47.0%
47.8%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.87.8
34.2%
32.8%23.4
🏀 Free throws13.410.9
81.3%
73.3%10.9
They take 61.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Southside W
LWLLLLWLLW
Adelaide Lightning W
LLWLLLWLLW
#4
League position
#7
-8.0
Net rating
-12.4
92.6
Offensive rating
95.7
100.6
Defensive rating
108.0
48.1%
Effective FG%
48.6%
46.8%
Opp. effective FG%
52.2%
21.9%
Turnover %
20.5%
27.9%
Off. rebound %
25.1%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.22
28.6%
3-point %
34.2%
69.7%
Assist %
59.1%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence92.6 · 95.7Defence100.6 · 108.0Shooting48.1% · 48.6%3-point %28.6% · 34.2%Ball care21.9% · 20.5%Off. rebounds27.9% · 25.1%Free throws0.20 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ Southside W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Southside W wins
5
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
09/02/25Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W84-78
20/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W82-72
06/12/24Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W71-97
24/02/24Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W60-74
30/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W62-87
18/11/23Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W67-56
28/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W72-73
03/12/22Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W91-72
05/11/22Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W99-91
19/03/22Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W79-87
Southside Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/12/25HBendigo W60-70
16/12/25HGeelong Venom W86-58
12/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-97
07/12/25HBendigo W67-75
05/12/25APerth Lynx W81-98
29/11/25ATownsville W63-84
22/11/25HSydney W93-76
14/11/25AGeelong Venom W54-66
09/11/25APerth Lynx W76-79
31/10/25HTownsville W89-83
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/12/25HPerth Lynx W82-109
19/12/25ABendigo W67-75
14/12/25ASydney W94-75
09/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-76
30/11/25ABendigo W65-71
25/11/25HTownsville W64-90
21/11/25HGeelong Venom W99-93 OT
18/11/25HBendigo W74-82
15/11/25ATownsville W69-103
09/11/25HSydney W88-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Southside W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL33%
HomeWWLWL50%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %33%50%17%
Points / game74.377.771.0
Allowed / game78.573.783.3
Point differential-4.2+4.0-12.3
Avg total152.8151.3154.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL31%
HomeWLWLL43%
AwayLLLWL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %31%43%17%
Points / game76.578.973.7
Allowed / game84.283.685.0
Point differential-7.8-4.7-11.3
Avg total160.7162.4158.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%14%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %8%14%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1412286%75.967.0+8.9
2 Townsville W1311285%89.070.8+18.2
3 Perth Lynx W1310377%80.874.5+6.2
4 Canberra Capitals W146843%72.178.5-6.4
5 Southside W124833%74.378.5-4.2
6 Adelaide Lightning W134931%76.584.2-7.8
7 Sydney W1541127%74.584.0-9.5
8 Geelong Venom W1431121%75.479.6-4.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Southside W1823172785
Adelaide Lightning W1523151972
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